Chinese Economics Thread


This is a prediction and consensus, NOT the official number.
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China regains 1.1% GDP growth in Q2 on production rebound: Nikkei survey

China's economy likely expanded 1.1% in the April-June period on a recovery in production and consumption, rebounding from a 6.8% contraction for the previous quarter during the peak of coronavirus cases in the country, according to the consensus of economists surveyed by Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News.

Qun Liao, chief economist at China CITIC Bank International, forecast a 1.9% increase in real gross domestic product, saying that rising supply caught up with demand while leeway on monetary and fiscal policies propped up growth.

Tommy Wu, lead economist at Oxford Economics, forecast 1.5% growth.

"We expect the economy to continue to recover from the second quarter onwards, mainly led by industrial production and investment," Wu said.
 

localizer

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is a prediction and consensus, NOT the official number.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
China regains 1.1% GDP growth in Q2 on production rebound: Nikkei survey

China's economy likely expanded 1.1% in the April-June period on a recovery in production and consumption, rebounding from a 6.8% contraction for the previous quarter during the peak of coronavirus cases in the country, according to the consensus of economists surveyed by Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News.

Qun Liao, chief economist at China CITIC Bank International, forecast a 1.9% increase in real gross domestic product, saying that rising supply caught up with demand while leeway on monetary and fiscal policies propped up growth.

Tommy Wu, lead economist at Oxford Economics, forecast 1.5% growth.

"We expect the economy to continue to recover from the second quarter onwards, mainly led by industrial production and investment," Wu said.

“Experts” are predicting. a -6.6%

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styx

Junior Member
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i think that global economic crisis will bee o boon for cheap chinese exports: more cheap xiaomi phones and less expensive apple phones in simple words. Trump shoot in the foot us with his tariffs, more and more with covid crisis.
 

AssassinsMace

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I was watching some independent financial videos on YouTube angry how China's stock market is doing well while the US hasn't even gotten a handle on coronavirus yet. I guess if you think no one can be successful without the the US, you will be confused and angry. This is the bind they put themselves into. Most of the products that say Made in China sold in the US are products of US corporations. The Chinese just make it. They don't profit by it. If China makes products for Apple and they only get $10 from every iPhone they make while Apple gets $990 from that very same iPhone, who do you think is going to lose out more when that economic relationship is ended? The angry and confused think everything happens overnight. Americans think they will have those jobs back the next day. They think they can setup a factory overnight. It'll take them a couple years before that factory will be open. That's two years of not being able to sell their products. Who doubts China is going to develop independent technologies so the US doesn't have a say anymore forever... You going to bet on the US who can't even get a handle on coronavirus? When do they call it an American fire drill? That's why China's stock market can go up while the US is still shut down.
 

muddie

Junior Member
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I was watching some independent financial videos on YouTube angry how China's stock market is doing well while the US hasn't even gotten a handle on coronavirus yet. I guess if you think no one can be successful without the the US, you will be confused and angry. This is the bind they put themselves into. Most of the products that say Made in China sold in the US are products of US corporations. The Chinese just make it. They don't profit by it. If China makes products for Apple and they only get $10 from every iPhone they make while Apple gets $990 from that very same iPhone, who do you think is going to lose out more when that economic relationship is ended? The angry and confused think everything happens overnight. Americans think they will have those jobs back the next day. They think they can setup a factory overnight. It'll take them a couple years before that factory will be open. That's two years of not being able to sell their products. Who doubts China is going to develop independent technologies so the US doesn't have a say anymore forever... You going to bet on the US who can't even get a handle on coronavirus? When do they call it an American fire drill? That's why China's stock market can go up while the US is still shut down.
The U.S. equity markets are doing extremely well also, but there is no connection between the stock markets and the actual economy at this point. The Fed has basically backstopped all U.S. companies so no one can go bankrupt. Which is why U.S. stocks continue to go up while COIVD cases pile up.

The major problem I see with this is that COVID + U.S. government financial intervention has further widened the wealth gap in the U.S. Over the past few months, the rich got significantly richer while the poor got even more poor. Not to mention the mountain of debt the U.S. took to stop mass bankruptcies.

The way I see, the U.S. is currently stuck because COVID is still raging, but they can't shut down the economy again. If you get millions of poor Americans unemployment (most are minorities), no jobs, high racial / social tensions, you get mass rioting. This is why despite COVID increasing, the U.S. states will allow businesses to open up and get people back to work (so they aren't on the streets).
 

ZeEa5KPul

Junior Member
Registered Member
I was watching some independent financial videos on YouTube angry how China's stock market is doing well while the US hasn't even gotten a handle on coronavirus yet.
This video is a historical treasure. The perfect expression of American imperial decline:
 

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