You are behind the times. US has stop being China‘s number one trade partner a long time ago
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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You are behind the times. US has stop being China‘s number one trade partner a long time ago
Jura The idiot
General
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I’m almost convinced China is.
The phase one deal involves China buying and America selling, that means America needs to make things for China to buy. What more, most commercial contracts have delivery deadlines, whereby once a deal is signed, you must delivery within the agreed timeframe or you are in breach of contract and the other party is free to pull out and sue you for damages.
You see where China might be going here? They are using America’s own hubris and arrogance against itself.
China will make the orders without delay, as demanded by US politicians, and let American companies fail to honour those deals, and then China can pull out of those deals per the agreed contracts and have the US government pay them compensation in the form of bail out funds for those companies, who will then in term pay some of that money to China as breach of contract reparations.
EU as a whole is China’s biggest trading partner. ASEAN is second
Jura The idiot
General
no problem, tell Global Times "In terms of trade partners, China and the US were each other's largest trading partner before the trade war began ..."
Technology is the mother lode and foundation of economic prosperity.He who command the technology will be richly rewarded with great economy. Now anyone here still doubting Chinese economic trajectory like our friend with O name need to read David Goldman article He is no friend of China and secretly hankering for US superiority. But even he is realistic enough that achieving that is an uphill battle. If it possible at all. Because as I said the best mind in the west does not go into engineering any more because there is no job security and no money. Why bother It is not because Chinese are more intelligent but because there is no economic incentive. In china you can still make a decent living as engineer because the country as a whole appreciate you and your effort
Here is on why Apple makes I-phones in China: “China has moved into very advanced manufacturing, so you find in China the intersection of craftsman kind of skill, and sophisticated robotics and the computer science world. That intersection, which is very rare to find anywhere, that kind of skill, is very important to our business because of the precision and quality level that we like.
“The thing that most people focus on if they’re a foreigner coming to China is the size of the market, and obviously it’s the biggest market in the world in so many areas. But for us, the number one attraction is the quality of the people… It’s not designed and sent over, that sounds like there’s no interaction. The truth is, the process engineering and process development associated with our products require innovation in and of itself. Not only the product but the way that it’s made, because we want to make things in the scale of hundreds of millions, and we want the quality level of zero defects.”
Cook added: “The products we do require really advanced tooling, and the precision that you have to have, the tooling and working with the materials that we do are state of the art. And the tooling skill is very deep here. In the US you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and I’m not sure we could fill the room. In China you could fill multiple football fields.”
The US doesn’t have the engineers to make a smartphone. In fact, we don’t have enough engineers to expand US manufacturing output by any significant margin. As of 2015, China graduated six times as many engineers as the United States, according to the National Science Foundation. That was five years ago. In the meantime China’s university system, enriched by tens of thousands of American-educated doctoral candidates, has come up to par with US universities in most STEM fields. Four out of five US doctoral candidates in electrical engineering and computer science are foreign students, and the largest cohort by far is Chinese. And most Chinese engineers go home when they get their degree, because only 5% of American college students major in engineering, and there aren’t enough faculty jobs around to hire new PhDs.
All that is mentioned here I do not deny in fact I try to make others realise. Hence my reply to ZeEa5KPul. The massive turnaround towards STEM focus in Chinese society after the Communists industrialised the country with an injection of Stalinist policies and reforms, is literally the only real hope the Chinese economy has now against a united front led by the powers behind the US policy.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
A lot of stories about how China is going to have a hard time recovering economically because of coronavirus? You mean like the US isn't? Americans think everyone else does it more or they do it less... whichever is worse. So naturally they think China is going to have a harder time recovering than the US. The US is so upset about how China has less cases of coronavirus and deaths, do you really think when they criticized China was opening up too soon was because of fear of a second wave of infections or they're just afraid China will get its economic engine rolling again sooner when they know it might take years for the US to do?
Remember, it was how China didn't seem to suffer as much from the 2008 Western Financial Crisis that got the US worried about Made in China 2025. If they suffered, China would have to suffer eventually and more because that said how much China was dependent on their well-being. The US recovery from the 2008 financial crisis took longer than the usual 2-3 years after a recession. Why? Because of China. Before China, recession meant money just moved around the US and other Western countries. Not that it was just China, it was because of China being the driver of the world economy meant there were other places for money to find refuge from problems in the US. Some people act like the US will be at the same place as before the coronavirus. Look at how it was believed the US was number one in handling outbreaks. Today they can't say that especially when they don't take responsibility of why the US seems like a deer-in-the-headlights regarding coronavirus. Do you think other sectors are any different? Republicans are introducing legislation to steal money from China by not paying back any US treasuries and bonds owned by China. They can violate the rule of law anytime they want for whatever reason they can make up. You don't think the US is going to sell treasuries and bonds in order to aid them in recovery? You don't think they're expecting China to buy them? What other country is going to buy them after that especially when Trump treats the US's closest allies like they're the enemy? They always hide behind the rule of law because that says they can be trusted. Not anymore. The reason why they sell bonds and treasuries is because they're spending money they don't have. That money goes to paying government programs meaning they also have to continually sell US treasuries and bonds in order to fund those programs every year. When they have to cut programs because they don't have the money anymore, it's going to be a partisan civil war in the US Congress. Nothing will get done and the problems just pile on top of one another getting worse because they're a deer-in-the-headlights. Japan was a deer-in-the-headlights and that's why they suffered from "The Lost Decade".
Cellex got FDA approval for their coronavirus anti-body test but apparently they can't get them out of China because of export restrictions. Still relying on China after the cries of having to rely on China? China's just helping the US break dependency on China. Did China hold a gun to their heads to have their anti-body test produced in China? Where's the declaration of war from Congress? No they make it in China because China has the capacity to produce them quickly in large amounts. When did they come up with this test and the shipment is being held up in China? Look at that quick turn around. Yeah they can make in the US but what about the big in between times of outbreaks when they don't need them. Maybe they'll expect the private sector to pay to maintain all that equipment and supplies... and then they'll go bankrupt. Maybe the US government will pay for it. Yeah they hide behind capitalist market principles... until it doesn't serve them.
Yes they'll end up realizing they need China to make their stuff and buy their stuff, so any actions they do against China will hurt them more in the end.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Interview with Tiffany Hsiao, professional fund investor who produced gains superior to 99% of competitors over a 5 year period by focusing on small Chinese companies.
China’s Small Companies Are Beating Almost Every Market. Here Are The Best Sectors.
Within China, there’s confidence the disease is controllable. They have so much in resources—they can make five million masks per city when they ask people to work together—so they are confident they have the medical supplies and people working together. And because of how swift and effective the [containment] was, people are not worried about job security. We can’t say that about the U.S. or Europe. Everyone at the companies we own is back at work.
And if you look at demographics, the largest cohort [of investors] is millennials. When they see a correction, they are going to participate because that is not their nest egg. They are still building it and have the ability to capture the falling knife, whereas in the U.S. and Europe, investors are depending on that money in the next 10 years.
When this virus first broke out, the Chinese government’s response was not transparent. But in the past, you would see very draconian measures to suppress freedom of speech. This time, they let people vent their frustrations. People were creating art pieces out of that doctor’s picture and posting on and mourning his death. The Chinese government publicly apologized [for its treatment of Li]—that in itself instilled confidence.
It was an unfortunate event, but the response from the government was so different than what we had seen before that people had a lot more confidence in the government after that, especially after they saw the virus spread outside of China’s borders.
The government has put in place very cautious, but reasonable, policies around public health. Any person who returns from overseas has to self-quarantine for 14 days. They give you electronic bracelets as you enter, and track you. That type of policy broadcast to the people gives them confidence that the government is doing its job, so they can safely go do theirs.
In terms of valuation, the Chinese onshore equity markets have not corrected much since the Covid-19 outbreak.
[China’s] stimulus has been very measured, such as a deferred social security tax and local tax rebates. On top of that, a lot of the more wealthy parts of the economy—the landowners—voluntarily offered two months of free rent and no collections on debt. Here in San Francisco, a lot of restaurants are going out of business because landlords refuse to do that.
We are a heavy investor in software, including (8083.Hong Kong), which is the equivalent of , and helps mom-and-pops sell anything. As soon as everyone shut down, their users went through the roof, as companies tried to go from bricks-and-mortar to online. China is very dynamic. Small- to medium-size-business owners are very nimble. And there’s still demand: People still need to eat and have kids entertained with educational programming. Their basic needs haven’t changed; they just need a different way to get it.
People are also embracing the digital economy even more. The e-commerce adoption rate is already much higher than in the U.S., with about 25% of retail sales done online compared with 11% in the U.S. In the past, people just ordered clothes or electronics and now are ordering groceries.
The self-sufficiency theme is alive and well. When the government was thinking about how to stimulate the economy, that was the first area it looked at—investing more in semiconductors, biotech, and software. The chairman of our largest position, (6415.Taiwan), the largest analog semiconductor company in China, told me the company will grow revenue 20% to 30% unhindered, because the areas they invest in are the areas the government wants to speed up—5G infrastructure, health-care equipment, and data centers—as more people work from home and embrace the digital economy.
Chinese small-caps comprise the world’s largest small-cap asset class. It surpassed the U.S. two years ago in terms of liquidity, number of stocks listed, and total market cap listed. If you are worried about liquidity, Chinese small-caps are much more liquid than the U.S.—and have done much better year to date.
China’s Small Companies Are Beating Almost Every Market. Here Are The Best Sectors.
Within China, there’s confidence the disease is controllable. They have so much in resources—they can make five million masks per city when they ask people to work together—so they are confident they have the medical supplies and people working together. And because of how swift and effective the [containment] was, people are not worried about job security. We can’t say that about the U.S. or Europe. Everyone at the companies we own is back at work.
And if you look at demographics, the largest cohort [of investors] is millennials. When they see a correction, they are going to participate because that is not their nest egg. They are still building it and have the ability to capture the falling knife, whereas in the U.S. and Europe, investors are depending on that money in the next 10 years.
When this virus first broke out, the Chinese government’s response was not transparent. But in the past, you would see very draconian measures to suppress freedom of speech. This time, they let people vent their frustrations. People were creating art pieces out of that doctor’s picture and posting on and mourning his death. The Chinese government publicly apologized [for its treatment of Li]—that in itself instilled confidence.
It was an unfortunate event, but the response from the government was so different than what we had seen before that people had a lot more confidence in the government after that, especially after they saw the virus spread outside of China’s borders.
The government has put in place very cautious, but reasonable, policies around public health. Any person who returns from overseas has to self-quarantine for 14 days. They give you electronic bracelets as you enter, and track you. That type of policy broadcast to the people gives them confidence that the government is doing its job, so they can safely go do theirs.
In terms of valuation, the Chinese onshore equity markets have not corrected much since the Covid-19 outbreak.
[China’s] stimulus has been very measured, such as a deferred social security tax and local tax rebates. On top of that, a lot of the more wealthy parts of the economy—the landowners—voluntarily offered two months of free rent and no collections on debt. Here in San Francisco, a lot of restaurants are going out of business because landlords refuse to do that.
We are a heavy investor in software, including (8083.Hong Kong), which is the equivalent of , and helps mom-and-pops sell anything. As soon as everyone shut down, their users went through the roof, as companies tried to go from bricks-and-mortar to online. China is very dynamic. Small- to medium-size-business owners are very nimble. And there’s still demand: People still need to eat and have kids entertained with educational programming. Their basic needs haven’t changed; they just need a different way to get it.
People are also embracing the digital economy even more. The e-commerce adoption rate is already much higher than in the U.S., with about 25% of retail sales done online compared with 11% in the U.S. In the past, people just ordered clothes or electronics and now are ordering groceries.
The self-sufficiency theme is alive and well. When the government was thinking about how to stimulate the economy, that was the first area it looked at—investing more in semiconductors, biotech, and software. The chairman of our largest position, (6415.Taiwan), the largest analog semiconductor company in China, told me the company will grow revenue 20% to 30% unhindered, because the areas they invest in are the areas the government wants to speed up—5G infrastructure, health-care equipment, and data centers—as more people work from home and embrace the digital economy.
Chinese small-caps comprise the world’s largest small-cap asset class. It surpassed the U.S. two years ago in terms of liquidity, number of stocks listed, and total market cap listed. If you are worried about liquidity, Chinese small-caps are much more liquid than the U.S.—and have done much better year to date.
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