Chinese Economics Thread


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"The Atlantis report. I haven't verify figures quoted. But if it's so, it's scary. Soya beans production went from 103 million/billon (can't remember which) tonnes to 34, in 2018 to 2019! that's some drop!"


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I got intrigued;

on top of my google search
us+soybean+production+2018 is

Soybean production for 2018 totaled a record 4.54 billion bushels, up 3 percent from 2017. With record high yields in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, New York, and Ohio, the average soybean yield is estimated at 51.6 bushels per acre, 2.3 bushels above 2017, but 0.3 bushel below the record yield of 2016.Feb 8, 2019
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on top of my google search
us+soybean+production+2019 is

The average market estimate for the 2019-20 US soybean harvested area is 75.7 million acres. Additionally, the US soybean production in 2019-20 is estimated at 3.476 billion bushels and ending stocks at 429 million bu, according to Platts Analytics.Oct 12, 2019
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1 bushel of soy is 27.2155 kg (
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)
so:
2018 US soybean production was 4.54e9*0.0272 (rounding) about 123 million tons
2019 estimate: about 95 million tons
 
Kind of a misleading title. The article says that SOME purchases of soybeans and pork would be tariff-exempt, which is basically the same as making a purchase. Title makes it sound like China has totally removed tariffs from US soy and pork.
here's what Glob. Times had to say:
China to exempt tax on US soybeans, pork
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Published: 2019/12/6 17:47:15

China is currently working on tax exemptions for some of the soybeans and pork it imports from the US, in light of applications from domestic enterprises.

Experts say the quantity of US agricultural products China imports is dependent upon its own needs instead of catering to US political demands or pressure.

The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council said on Friday that it will designate a range of goods for exclusion from tariff countermeasures against the US' Section 301 move.

The decision comes as China is facing a soybean shortage, as well as a declining pork supply due to the outbreak of African swine fever.

China consumes about 110 million tons of soybeans each year, of which about 80 percent are imported, Ma Wenfeng, a senior analyst at the Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultancy, told the Global Times on Friday.

In 2018, China's soybean imports dropped for the first time in seven years, down 7.9 percent to 88 million tons.

The declining trend continues this year. The country's soybean imports decreased 8.1 percent year-on-year to 70.69 million tons in the first 10 months of 2019, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

However, China is still making efforts, based on real needs and market principles, to increase its soybean purchases from the US. The
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said in October that China had bought 20 million tons of US soybeans thus far this year.

Traditionally, Brazil, the US and Argentina are China's three major soybean import sources, but due to an increasing production capacity and price advantage, Brazil has been squeezing the US' Chinese market share.

In 2018, Brazilian soybeans accounted for about 75 percent of China's total imports, while the US supplied about 19 percent, Ma said.

However, US President Donald Trump is looking to ask China to purchase $40-50 billion worth of US agricultural products in order to reach a phase-one trade deal - about twice the value exported to China last year - CNBC reported.

US farmers may not be a huge constituency but they are key to Trump's re-election campaign in 2020, it said.

"China will not buy the US' threats," Li Guoxiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Friday.

If the US puts an end to the trade war, China is willing to talk with it about the agricultural imports problem based on mutual benefits and domestic market needs, but any deal reached cannot sacrifice China's interests, he said.

"China's purchasing practice is not for the benefit of US politics, and the US cannot manipulate China's importing behaviors," he said.

Amid the prolonged China-US trade war, China is expanding its import channels as well as its domestic production.

Brazilian farmers now are worried that if China and the US reach a trade deal, Brazil's soybean exports to the Asian country will drop sharply, said Chen Beier, the China manager of US futures brokerage firm RJO, on Thursday at a grain and oil industry forum held in Xiamen, East China's Fujian Province.

Meanwhile, China is gradually expanding its soybean acreage. The country's soybean plantation area grew 10.9 percent to 140 million mu (9.3 million hectares) in 2019, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday.
 

Gatekeeper

Captain
Registered Member
I know this video is more than 18 months old, but it is true today. It's from the BBC, so the western posters here should accept it as legit!

I think the reporter gets it, she know this is what the trade war is all about. It is not the espionage, security, "forced hand over of tech", "unfair practices" "stolen tech". Hwawai, and Hong Kong!

It is about America's fear of being displaced as the world No.1!

Watch till the end and you will hear her comment:

"This is what got the Americans worried"!

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2handedswordsman

Junior Member
Registered Member
here's what Glob. Times had to say:
China to exempt tax on US soybeans, pork
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Published: 2019/12/6 17:47:15
Seems that comrades sucked it a bit. Or just fool with his majesty. That's a cost for not concentrating to the goal properly. Stalinist mode proved really efficient of growth during really difficult times, Social objectives are more clearer in socialism rather capitalism. After 2025, there's no excuse of CCP to fail. LOL
 

AssassinsMace

Brigadier
Trump wants to end the World Bank from giving loans to China. Does he think it's free money? They have to be paid back with interest. Is it like how Trump wants to not pay back what is owed when foreigners buy US treasuries and bonds? I haven't heard of China defaulting on loans thus the World Bank is making money from interest.
 
Oct 14, 2019
now after I had read
Trade data shows resilience of China’s economy
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I looked again into the SCMP story linked

Today at 6:58 AM
and, without reading either article for the third time, the discrepancy seems to be the exports below
:
"Data released by the General Administration of Customs Monday shows China's total trade amounted to 22.91 trillion yuan($3.24 trillion) in the first three quarters of the year, growing 2.8 percent from a year ago. The country's exports rose by 5.2 percent to 12.48 trillion yuan and imports dropped 0.1 percent to 10.43 trillion yuan." (Glob. Times)
x
"Based on calculations by the South China Morning Post, China’s exports fell by 0.79 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 compared to a year earlier." (SCMP)

anyway in situations like this I always keep in mind the quote from Churchill on statistics
now again two types of stories:

  1. China’s exports fall again in November, as trade war continues to bite
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  2. Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

    ·
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    China's foreign trade registered steady growth in the first 11 months of 2019 by expanding 2.4% YOY, reaching 28.5 tln yuan ($4.14 tln), the General Administration of Customs said Sunday.
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Trade war: China deal unlikely this week with US distracted by USMCA, but new tariffs not expected
  • Sources from Beijing and Washington continue to believe that tariffs planned for Sunday will be averted, due to economic pressure on both the US and China
  • New US tariffs could lead to China unleashing ‘unreliable entities list’ on US companies, while soaring inflation and falling exports press on Beijing to make deal


I think the gist is “If we see US tariffs on Sunday, it would mean the talks collapse,” anyway follow the link
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if interested
 
Economic Watch: China's inflation stays within annual target but challenges remain
Xinhua| 2019-12-10 22:29:45
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and I'm guessing the most important is pork cost like two times as much as one year ago
 

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