Chinese Economics Thread


Yesterday at 7:42 AM
while I slept

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China and the United States kicked off a new round of high-level consultations in Washington on Thursday to address the differences on outstanding economic and trade issues
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so let's wait and see
... and now saw several positive stories; examples:
Optimism surrounds trade talks between China, US
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US President Donald Trump on Friday met with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House. Liu conveyed a message from President Xi Jinping to Trump and said the two negotiating teams conducted candid, efficient, and constructive discussions on economic and trade issues.

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Today at 8:20 AM
Yesterday at 7:42 AM... and now saw several positive stories; examples:
Optimism surrounds trade talks between China, US
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US President Donald Trump on Friday met with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House. Liu conveyed a message from President Xi Jinping to Trump and said the two negotiating teams conducted candid, efficient, and constructive discussions on economic and trade issues.

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... and below is the link to the most recent SCMP summary I've now read; during so called trade war with China I've seen too many twists to bother with commenting at this point in time:
US-China ‘partial’ trade deal sees tariff rise halted, progress on technology transfers
  • Donald Trump advises US farmers to ‘get bigger tractors’ as Beijing promises to buy more American agricultural products
  • US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has ‘very good discussions’ on opening up of China’s financial services markets
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after
Oct 5, 2019
The Trump Connection, LOL!
Joe Biden’s son listed as director at China-backed equity firm, government filings show
  • Former US vice-president Joe Biden’s son is listed as a director of a state-backed equity fund in China, official government filings show
  • Pictures of Hunter Biden have been removed from the website of BHR Equity Investment Fund Management Company, but role is unchanged
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hadn't heard of some Devon Archer before
comes
Breaking News
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Sep 8, 2019
before I move to US-military news-servers
China’s exports fall unexpectedly in August, as trade war continues to slam industrial economy
  • Shipments down 1 per cent in month despite analysts forecasting further growth after 3.3 per cent rise in July
  • Imports remain cause of concern for Beijing, falling 5.6 per cent in August, meaning they have only grown in one month in 2019
Updated: 12:51pm, 8 Sep, 2019
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followup:
China’s exports suffer biggest drop since February, as US trade war continues to hammer economy
  • Both exports and imports fell by more than expected in the world’s second largest economy in September, with US tariffs causing serious issues for China’s trade
  • US President Donald Trump said China agreed last week to resume buying US farm goods as part of a deal that will also delay a tariff increase set for Tuesday
follow the link (also containing what Trump most recently tweeted about trade with China)
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if interested; here's related:

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China’s total foreign trade volume in the first three quarters of 2019 topped 22.91 trillion yuan ($3.23 trillion), up 2.8% from last year; exports expanded 5.2%, while imports dropped 0.1%: General Administration of Customs data, Mon
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plus
China's foreign trade rise 2.8% in first three quarters of 2019
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China's foreign trade maintained stable growth in the first three quarters of 2019 with a total trade volume of 22.91 trillion yuan, expanding 2.8 percent year-on-year, the General Administration of Customs said on Monday.

Exports rose by 5.2 percent to 12.48 trillion yuan and imports dropped by 0.1 percent to 10.43 trillion yuan. The trade surplus expanded by 44.2 percent to 2.05 trillion yuan.

China's trade with the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) reached 3.57 trillion and 3.14 trillion yuan respectively, registering an increase of 8.6 percent and 11.5 percent respectively. Trade with the U.S. dropped 10.3 percent to 2.75 trillion yuan.

Trade with economies related to the Belt and Road Initiative totaled 6.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.5 percent on a year-on-year basis, accounting for 29 percent of the total trade.

Imports and exports of private enterprises grew by 10.4 percent to 9.96 trillion yuan, making up 42.3 percent of the total trade, or 2.9 percentage points higher than last year.

The country saw a jump in the import of pork and beef. Pork imports rose by 43.6 percent to 1.326 million tons, and beef import increased by 53.4 percent to 1.132 million tons.

Imports of bulk commodities such as crude oil and coal also increased. Crude oil and natural gas import increased by 9.7 percent and 10 percent respectively. The import of iron ore was down by 2.4 percent. Soybean import stood at 64.511 million tons, down by 7.9 percent.
 
now after I had read
Trade data shows resilience of China’s economy
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I looked again into the SCMP story linked

Today at 6:58 AM
Sep 8, 2019
followup:
China’s exports suffer biggest drop since February, as US trade war continues to hammer economy
  • Both exports and imports fell by more than expected in the world’s second largest economy in September, with US tariffs causing serious issues for China’s trade
  • US President Donald Trump said China agreed last week to resume buying US farm goods as part of a deal that will also delay a tariff increase set for Tuesday
follow the link (also containing what Trump most recently tweeted about trade with China)
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if interested; here's related:

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China’s total foreign trade volume in the first three quarters of 2019 topped 22.91 trillion yuan ($3.23 trillion), up 2.8% from last year; exports expanded 5.2%, while imports dropped 0.1%: General Administration of Customs data, Mon
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plus
China's foreign trade rise 2.8% in first three quarters of 2019
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and, without reading either article for the third time, the discrepancy seems to be the exports below
:
"Data released by the General Administration of Customs Monday shows China's total trade amounted to 22.91 trillion yuan($3.24 trillion) in the first three quarters of the year, growing 2.8 percent from a year ago. The country's exports rose by 5.2 percent to 12.48 trillion yuan and imports dropped 0.1 percent to 10.43 trillion yuan." (Glob. Times)
x
"Based on calculations by the South China Morning Post, China’s exports fell by 0.79 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 compared to a year earlier." (SCMP)

anyway in situations like this I always keep in mind the quote from Churchill on statistics
 
Last edited:
now
Economic Watch: China secures resilient trade growth amid soft global demands
Xinhua| 2019-10-14 19:17:18
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adds to the discrepancy between the SCMP sentence quoted above and the official
 
now after I had read
Trade data shows resilience of China’s economy
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I looked again into the SCMP story linked

Today at 6:58 AM
and, without reading either article for the third time, the discrepancy seems to be the exports below
:
"Data released by the General Administration of Customs Monday shows China's total trade amounted to 22.91 trillion yuan($3.24 trillion) in the first three quarters of the year, growing 2.8 percent from a year ago. The country's exports rose by 5.2 percent to 12.48 trillion yuan and imports dropped 0.1 percent to 10.43 trillion yuan." (Glob. Times)
x
"Based on calculations by the South China Morning Post, China’s exports fell by 0.79 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 compared to a year earlier." (SCMP)

anyway in situations like this I always keep in mind the quote from Churchill on statistics
I don't see a discrepancy. The first statement says that the first 3 quarters combined, exports increased 5.2% while the second says that in the third quarter, exports fell by 0.79% compared to that of last year so both can easily be true. It's also important to note whether they are talking about USD value or yuan value as that can make a big difference. Finally, I don't understand why the last one says that it's by the calculation of the SCMP; they are a newspaper and in no position to calculate anything regarding to national economics. It's their job to take the numbers given to them by the official economic institutions.
 

AssassinsMace

Brigadier
Looks like this trade deal is another Trump spin and lie. They're still negotiating where they're saying they're hoping to sign the deal next month at the APEC meeting and if it's not signed by Dec. tariffs will go up. I don't even know why Beijing is entertaining Trump when all he does is lie and spin. He said no mini-deal yet this is a mini-deal to get the stock market moving up. If Trump gets re-elected, Beijing doesn't see Trump will have nothing to lose playing even a more hardball game since he can't run for another term after that?
 

localizer

Senior Member
Registered Member
Looks like this trade deal is another Trump spin and lie. They're still negotiating where they're saying they're hoping to sign the deal next month at the APEC meeting and if it's not signed by Dec. tariffs will go up. I don't even know why Beijing is entertaining Trump when all he does is lie and spin. He said no mini-deal yet this is a mini-deal to get the stock market moving up. If Trump gets re-elected, Beijing doesn't see Trump will have nothing to lose playing even a more hardball game since he can't run for another term after that?
Never get 1 inch to bullies or they will come back for more next time.
 

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