Chinese Economics Thread

solarz

Brigadier
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More sanctions on Chinese companies from the US.

For 20 years, since the fall of the USSR, China has been pursuing economic development while the US has been pursuing global military supremacy. It seems that the US has now decided to change strategy and attack China economically, among other things.

2019 has seen a dramatic escalation of US assault against China on all fronts. I now believe the media circus over the Uighurs earlier in the year was preparatory work for the Hong Kong riots, as a way to shape public sentiment. The US strategy seems to be a two-pronged assault, one economically and the other politically.

So far, China has only taken defensive actions in order to mitigate the damage from those assaults, but I believe the US is just going to keep piling on the pressure unless China starts to take meaningful retaliatory measures. Banning Apple would be a good first step, as it would have tremendous symbolic value.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Warren worse for China than Trump?
In some sense, no one is worse for China than Trump because Trump simply doesn't care about America. He'd happily see America burn to pursue some petty vendetta of his. Warren at least would be cognizant of and care about the damage she would be doing if she went down this path.

but I believe the US is just going to keep piling on the pressure unless China starts to take meaningful retaliatory measures.
I see the merit to the argument for retaliation, but I don't think it would be effective in deterring America. If things keep going as they are then America loses, so it has nothing to lose by doing what it's doing. These are just the last, desperate thrashes of a dying animal.
 

styx

Junior Member
Registered Member
remember that if china cripple a great public company like apple or boeing or caterpillar. This not only disrupt the company, but also disrupts the stock exchange where americans invests to have a retirement or healthcare or pay the university for the sons. Banning apple would signify to disrupt his business for years and cripple us financial system, this is war guys, and in a war there are always casualties and pain, the endgame is to inflict to the enemy catastrofic casualties.
 

styx

Junior Member
Registered Member
Trump is in some sense an irrational wannabe dictator or "king" constrained by a robust legal system, the problem is that he is backed by some fanatical bigots. Warren can be a hard candy for china on human rights and trade but it's possible to talk with her and the dems in rational way. How can you talk and deal with people that 2 days before trade talks bans chinese companies from purchasing american components on silly basis (why they doesn't sanctions the saudis for killing children in yemen, why erdogan can crush the curds etc etc)? They are damaging american economy to inflict pain on china, they are cutting themselves to use blood to taint the adversary.
 
If you take a cynical point of view, it almost seems that Trump gave Xi everything Xi could have dreamed off, served on a silver platter. Now, it might not be what I'd truly best for China, but what is best for China may not be exactly what Xi really wants. Maybe they really are best friends after all.
 

styx

Junior Member
Registered Member
for example if chinese economy stalls xi coul simply "blame america" and initiate a foriuos nationalistic campaign that can ignite a war.
 

Quickie

Colonel
Cramer thinking he can use reverse psychology on the Chinese.


Warren worse for China than Trump? Fact: Any Democrat gets to be President and they keep to the least Trump's tariffs, you'll see the Republicans blaming the Democrats for ruining the economy. The very thing they defended Trump on trade, they will be blaming the Democrats like it was all them only.

I see quite a few of these media commentators singing the tunes of China should be scared of who will be the next POTUS as he or she is going to be much tougher, and in a way saying China should get whatever deal they can in this administration.

Well, imo, China will stick to their principles no matter who will come online to be the President, be it the most hawkish of them. The reason is simple. No responsible government will sell their country in a deal that's forced on time. That only happens when a country loses in an all-out-war and no one is expecting a war yet, at least for now.
 

Just4Fun

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hype of Trade War, Myth of Cold War Win

You can never win any war against your adversary, trade war or financial war, psych war or real war, cold war or shooting war, without a military force overwhelming him. This is common sense. The British proved it in the Opium Wars one hundred fifty years ago when it used gunboats to overwhelmed China. The US proved it when it used gunboats to force Japan to open trade with it in 1853. N.Korea proved it in 2017 when Little Rocket Man exploded his H-bomb in response to US bluffs and a hapless Trump could only twittered his "fire and fury like the world had never seen". And Iran proved it when the Turban Man shot down an expensive US spy-drone among US bravadoes, and what an embarrassed Trump could do was to talk about possible Iranian human errors. All of these cases prove just one thing: You can never get more at the negotiation table than what you could possibly get in the battlefield with a dominant fighting force. This is truth. This is the basic law governing international negotiations. Every normal man knows it, except only a "stable genius" "with great and unmatched wisdom".

The US doesn't have any qualification to demand China to make changes on anything related to Chinese sovereignty, be it how SOEs operate, or how RMB is managed, or how "Made in China 2025" is implemented. These issues are sovereign to Chinese. And they can be changed only through sovereign ways by the Chinese. For a foreigner to demand China to make these changes, he must have the ability to force Chinese government work for him, or overthrow Chinese government at his will. This is obviously impossible. The US doesn't have the ability to engineer a regime change in China by either using military force, or instigating social unrest. It also doesn't have the ability to enforce its trade policies over China, if it can't win a shooting war against China in the battlefield. Without trade policies enforcement, any win in a trade war through negotiation is meaningless. To enforce your trade policies over your adversary, you must have the ability to stick your big guns at your opponent's head. Does the US have such a magic power to do so with China? Absolutely not. If the US couldn't win the Korean War seventy years ago when China was dirty poor, forget about ANY WAR against China today in China's domain, period. This is why the US will never be able to win the trade war, no matter who is in charge of the White House, and no matter what kind sanction is used against China.

You might want to use the collapse of Soviet Union to argue that the US could win the trade war against China without fighting a hot war. Come on, you're too naive. The USSR wasn't defeated by the US. It was defeated by itself. What the US did was simply to pick up a rotted apple from the ground and to claim it had won. The US certainly can claim it has won the cold war because the USSR is dead. But using it as evidence to argue the US could win the Trade War is simply idiotic. It is Gorbachev who killed the USSR with his fantasy for Social Democracy, and it is the USSR itself which committed suicide with its poor management of economy and profound corruption. It had little, if not nothing, to do with the US. If you don't agree, let's examine a hypothetical case. Could Putin claim that Russia had won the war against the UK with Brext and Scotland Independence? Certainly Putin could, since British further disintegration is inevitable and since Scotland Independence is deemed to occur. But we all know Putin's claim is funny and unsustainable. British disintegration is a rotted apple fallen on the ground, and all Putin does is to walk towards it, bent over, pick it up, and tap it with a playful comment. That's all. How the apple gets rotted, and how the rotted apple fell on the ground, they have little, if not nothing, to do with Putin.
 
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