Chinese Economics Thread


localizer

Senior Member
Registered Member
Interesting blog post from former diplomat

A Sino-Russian firewall against US interference
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The well-known Italian journalist and author and long-time China watcher based in Beijing,
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that Hong Kong is in reality Beijing’s “safety valve” and choking it can cause asphyxiation to the entire Chinese system. Sisci compares Hong Kong with “a compensation chamber, a safety valve between the closed economy of mainland China and the open economies of the rest of the world.”

If China could globalise avidly and yet keep its economy closed, it was because it had Hong Kong, which was completely open and provided the third-largest financial market in the world. If large-scale capital flight ensues in Hong Kong, China will have to work its future financial arrangements through countries over which it it doesn’t have political control. To quote Sisci, “Hong Kong’s present status can help Beijing buy time, but the crucial issue is still the status of China. The time of being both in and out the global commercial system thanks to a complex architecture of special agreements is rapidly running out.”

Simply put, the unrest in Hong Kong becomes a template of the
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to break China’s growth momentum and its ascendancy as a rival in technology globally in the 21st century. The
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are already opening the champagne bottle that “revolution is in the air in Hong Kong” — and, it will mark “the end of communism on Chinese soil.”
...
If they can't win the trade war, they can shutdown HK to hurt China.
 
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Chinese consumers shrug off impact of trade war on economy with increased spending to improve quality of life
  • UBS survey shows that consumers were not only spending more on consumer goods and services, but they plan to increase it over the next 12 months.
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Published: 6:40pm, 12 Aug, 2019

China’s retail sales rose 8.6 per cent in May when UBS conducted its survey, just as US President Donald Trump more than doubled his tariff on US$200 billion of Chinese products to 25 per cent. June retail sales rose 9.8 per cent from a year ago.

Almost one in five survey respondents, or 19 per cent of the sample, said they would be buying more consumer goods and services over the next 12 months, 8 percentage points more than a similar finding last year.

In particular, Chinese consumers spent more on premium food and drinks, sportswear and health care products, education and leisure travels, UBS said.
 

Franklin

Captain
Interesting blog post from former diplomat

A Sino-Russian firewall against US interference
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If they can't win the trade war, they can shutdown HK to hurt China.
Hong Kong isn't that important anymore to China these days. Back in the 1980's to the early 2000's HK was important because China had very little foreign currency and very few ways to get them and HK was a offshore center to raise capital. Now after more than 4 decades of growth and almost 2 decades of trade surpluses HK's role as a offshore center is no longer needed. In fact China now has so much foreign currency that they need to set up things like the BRI, the New Development Bank and the AIIB to allow foreign dollars to flow out of China to get higher returns, to prevent inflation and asset bubbles from forming domestically and to prevent the currency from gaining too much in value.

The only way the HK protests will turn in to a catastrophe for China is if China would overreact and send in the PLA or the PAP in to HK to quell the violence. Then China will get international rebukes and sanctions and will be put into the corner of parriah states. Just like what happened to Russia after the 2014 Crimea invasion. And China will loose most of its support in HK from the silent majority that are still pro-China based off of election results.

The chances that HK is going to gain independence from these protests is zero. The economic impact of these protests to the Chinese economy is practically zero.

If these are indeed CIA/NED orchestrated protests then the goal is for China to overreact to send in the troops in so they can repeat their succcess with Russia in 2014. This plays into the CCP's insecurity over sovereignty and political control.

We have to wait and see if Xi and the CPP leadership is politically and strategically astute enough to see this and will keep their heads cool in the weeks and maybe months ahead as these protests continue.
 
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Skywatcher

Senior Member
Why bother sending in the PAP, let along the PLA?

The HKPF is perfectly capable of handling guerrilla rioting short of some alien space bat teleporting assault rifles, RPGs and car bombs into the hands every Tom and Dick on the streets*.

*Even then, your untrained Tom and Dick is more likely to blow a foot in their collective feet when tooling around with military grade weaponry.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
Hong Kong isn't that important anymore to China these days. Back in the 1980's to the early 2000's HK was important because China had very little foreign currency and very few ways to get them and HK was a offshore center to raise capital. Now after more than 4 decades of growth and almost 2 decades of trade surpluses HK's role as a offshore center is no longer needed. In fact China now has so much foreign currency that they need to set up things like the BRI, the New Development Bank and the AIIB to allow foreign dollars to flow out of China to get higher returns, to prevent inflation and asset bubbles from forming domestically and to prevent the currency from gaining too much in value.

The only way the HK protests will turn in to a catastrophe for China is if China would overreact and send in the PLA or the PAP in to HK to quell the violence. Then China will get international rebukes and sanctions and will be put into the corner of parriah states. Just like what happened to Russia after the 2014 Crimea invasion. And China will loose most of its support in HK from the silent majority that are still pro-China based off of election results.

The chances that HK is going to gain independence from these protests is zero. The economic impact of these protests to the Chinese economy is practically zero.

If these are indeed CIA/NED orchestrated protests then the goal is for China to overreact to send in the troops in so they can repeat their succcess with Russia in 2014. This plays into the CCP's insecurity over sovereignty and political control.

We have to wait and see if Xi and the CPP leadership is politically and strategically astute enough to see this and will keep their heads cool in the weeks and maybe months ahead as these protests continue.
Indeed, HK is import, as any major city is to their home nation, but hardly to the extent that westerners tend to think.

China already suss’ed out the CIA pilot in HK. Notice how all the same fake news and bots toolkit the west routinely accuse Russia of using is at the core of the HK unrest. Add to that the co-ordinated western MSM blitz.

The rioters in HK are truly idiotic, and shows their true colours with the shameless waving of colonial and foreign flags while defacing their own national emblem.

That also goes to the core of their strategy and demands. Just look at who they are targeting, as if anything they want are in the gift of foreigners to give.

It is an irony no doubt entirely lost on these fools that their very actions are most likely to see the ‘freedoms’ they claim to love get utterly revoked.

HK’s special status has an expiry date, and everything these idiot rioters are doing are only proving to Beijing that they cannot responsibly handle their special freedoms and privileges nor do they deserve them. That is at the key of the CIA plot, they are using these idiots to store up trouble in the future by tempting Beijing to simply erase all of HK’s special privileges once the transitional period passes.
 
Hong Kong isn't that important anymore to China these days. Back in the 1980's to the early 2000's HK was important because China had very little foreign currency and very few ways to get them and HK was a offshore center to raise capital. Now after more than 4 decades of growth and almost 2 decades of trade surpluses HK's role as a offshore center is no longer needed. In fact China now has so much foreign currency that they need to set up things like the BRI, the New Development Bank and the AIIB to allow foreign dollars to flow out of China to get higher returns, to prevent inflation and asset bubbles from forming domestically and to prevent the currency from gaining too much in value.

The only way the HK protests will turn in to a catastrophe for China is if China would overreact and send in the PLA or the PAP in to HK to quell the violence. Then China will get international rebukes and sanctions and will be put into the corner of parriah states. Just like what happened to Russia after the 2014 Crimea invasion. And China will loose most of its support in HK from the silent majority that are still pro-China based off of election results.

The chances that HK is going to gain independence from these protests is zero. The economic impact of these protests to the Chinese economy is practically zero.

If these are indeed CIA/NED orchestrated protests then the goal is for China to overreact to send in the troops in so they can repeat their succcess with Russia in 2014. This plays into the CCP's insecurity over sovereignty and political control.

We have to wait and see if Xi and the CPP leadership is politically and strategically astute enough to see this and will keep their heads cool in the weeks and maybe months ahead as these protests continue.
What success with Russia in 2014? The US never got Russia to give away anything they took and Russia only expanded itself.

Whether China can get the best of this situation will depend on how the military handles things. If the military goes in and pepper bombs the crowd, and they all just run away, then it would have achieved nothing except scatter these traitors into hiding, allowing them to continue their terrorism from the darkness. If then there is global push back, then it is really not a good deal for China especially since thanks to Trump, this is the first time that China is looking more like a global leader.

However, if they push too far and China's military gets them all together in the same place and eliminated, then even if there is massive international push back, it could be very much worth it because it will have achieved something massive, which is a handsomely needed cull to make the population in Hong Kong much more loyal to China, and if things were to get that far, it would be a perfect opportunity to just take back Hong Kong 28 years early because quite frankly, they had fallen apart by themselves (not to mention the fact that the British never had any right to make any demands of China regarding China's own territory). And if there is any more push back, we might as well just move onto the ROC too since it's better to get both things out of the way now and rebuild global relations after rather than potentially having to do that twice. Any amount of trouble is worth finally unifying the country and restarting whole, not to mention that the importance of China in the global economy today serves as a fantastic buffer against long-lasting diplomatic consequences/ freezes.
 
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US delays some and repeals some of its own announced 9/1 tariffs on China, bolts its own stock up today. Trump tries to sound tough saying, "As usual, China said they were going to be buying “big” from our great American Farmers. So far they have not done what they said. Maybe this will be different!" Article (and others I've searched) mention nothing offered by the Chinese, no agricultural purchases or otherwise. In any case, if he truly had been made several offers by China only for China to not follow through, then trusting China again, hoping it would be different this time is just desperation. He already got his benefits from his tariff withdrawals: the US stock going up.

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Meanwhile, since Trump can't get China to do anything, he's decided it's time to squeeze the weak/easy again. He went to Abe, told him Japan exports too many cars into the US (again), and said they need to buy US agriculture to even things out LOL. Good luck trying to offset a lost market of 1.4 billion with one of 125 million. And Japan is notoriously protective of their own agriculture too. I wonder how many times Japan will be pushed into giving concessions to Trump for the same auto export permits again and again before they finally stand up for themselves. Should be interesting how this proceeds.
 

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
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Meanwhile, since Trump can't get China to do anything, he's decided it's time to squeeze the weak/easy again. He went to Abe, told him Japan exports too many cars into the US (again), and said they need to buy US agriculture to even things out LOL. Good luck trying to offset a lost market of 1.4 billion with one of 125 million. And Japan is notoriously protective of their own agriculture too. I wonder how many times Japan will be pushed into giving concessions to Trump for the same auto export permits again and again before they finally stand up for themselves. Should be interesting how this proceeds.
This is a case of bullying Japan eg Trump want Japan to buy more american car But the tariff on imported US car into Japan is minimal. Nobody want to buy american car because the steering wheel is on the left when the japanese drive on the right side of the car

The american car is so large it would be hard to drive in narrow lane of Japanese town not to mention parking in limited space Japan is very crowded place.

Gasoline cost a lot in Japan and american car is renown for being a gas guzzler. Japanese car are way much smaller and very efficient

Japan has built so many car factories in US and employed roughly 100,000 jobs and invest 51 billion US dollar what more can you ask

See nothing satisfy a bully until you take a stand
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Toyoda said that he was “deeply disappointed” in Trump and that trade restrictions “would deliver a serious blow to the U.S. auto industry and economy.”

The group released new
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that shows the companies have collectively invested about $51 billion in manufacturing in the United States over the last several decades. The group also estimates its members have created almost 94,000 manufacturing jobs at their U.S. plants and more than 1.6 million indirect jobs, like at dealerships and suppliers in the U.S.

“These numbers speak for themselves about JAMA member companies’ long history of local contributions and commitment as U.S. corporate citizens, and we are certain that neither imported vehicles and parts nor our American operations ‘threaten to impair’ the U.S. national security,” Toyoda said
 

styx

Junior Member
Registered Member
I've only a thing to say at the americans of the forum: Trump plays, You Pay! A good slogan for this trade war
 
now I read
Chinese, U.S. chief trade negotiators hold phone talks
Xinhua| 2019-08-13 22:54:13
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Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chief of the Chinese side of the China-U.S. comprehensive economic dialogue, held a phone conversation at request with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin late Tuesday.

In the phone talks, China lodged solemn representations concerning U.S. additional tariffs on the Chinese imports starting on Sept. 1.

The two sides agreed to hold another phone conversation in two weeks.

Chinese Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, Governor of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang, and Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission Ning Jizhe also joined the talks.
EDIT then went to GlobalTimes to see
US delays tariffs as China, US trade negotiators hold phone call
By GT staff Source:Global Times Published: 2019/8/13 23:49:01
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The US has delayed the imposition of a 10 percent tariff on significant portions of Chinese imports until December 15 as top negotiators from the two countries spoke by phone for the first time since US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports.

News of the telephone conversation coincided with an announcement by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) of a delay in tariffs on a significant portion of Chinese imports including electronic products and other goods.

Chinese experts said the sudden postponing of impending tariffs showed that the maximum pressure tactics of the US are losing their bite when it comes to China.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He held a phone call with US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Tuesday, with the Chinese side remaining firm against the US' pending tariffs on September 1, China's
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(MOFCOM) said in a statement posted to its website on Tuesday evening.

They also agreed to hold another telephone talk within the next two weeks.

Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, governor of the People's Bank of China Yi Gang and vice chairman of the
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Ning Jizhe took part in the call.

At the same time, the US delayed imposing a 10 percent tariff on certain goods originating from China, including cell phones and laptops, to December 15, or about four months away, according to a statement posted on its website.

The US is also removing certain products from its list of the $300 billion that had been earmarked for 10 percent tariffs based on health, safety, national security and other factors, read the USTR statement, adding that the exclusion process is also under consideration for products subject to the additional tariff.

These measures are set to greatly reduce the weight of US tariffs, as electronics goods alone account for about $130 billion.

Chinese experts reached by the Global Times on Tuesday night said the latest development showed the US maximum pressure tactic is not working on China, but they said it could pave the way for trade talks scheduled for September. However, they were cautious about the potential for any flip-flopping.

Delaying tariffs showed the US tactic of maximum pressure on China has fallen through, Mei Xinyu, a veteran expert close to the Ministry of Commerce, told the Global Times.

"The US has realized that its maximum pressure strategy to force China back to the negotiating table has not worked as expected. Washington knows that only through talks can the two sides reach a deal," Wang Jun, chief economist at Zhongyuan Bank, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Wang said Tuesday's development is more of a gesture rather than a concession from the US side. He doubted whether the decision would stand, given Washington's flip-flop approach in trade negotiations.

"Trump is looking for a way out. It also shows that both China and the US are highly dependent on each other, and the practice of imposing tariffs does not necessarily bring China to its knees," said Liang Qi, a professor from Nankai University.

"We also can see that imposing tariffs may harm the interests of the US, making it hard for Trump's re-election," Liang said.

Bai Ming, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation said that the tariff increase delay shows the US is not willing to cut off the two countries' negotiation channels when talks are on the verge of failure.

But Bai warned that it might also be a stalling tactic as the US has found that its extreme pressure on China has not generated the results it had hoped for.

The development lifted the US stockmarket as it took a sharp upward turn on Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.35 percent and the S&P 500 was up 1.37 percent as of press time on Tuesday.

The Nasdaq Composite was up 1.73 percent.
EDIT AGAIN
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·
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: US delays additional
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against
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until Dec. 15 on certain items including cellphones and laptops that had been set to take effect September 1
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