Chinese Aviation Industry


Overbom

Colonel
Registered Member
This doesnt have much sence, since they were talking about introducing it to customers by year end, how could be that percentage of certifying is so low?
I asume it is related to something else, like replacing most of the foreign parts/systems and recertify them all again?
I think the article is pretty clear actually. The C919 is lagging behind on certifications.

Unless it passes all the tests, then it clearly isn't allowed to be flown or AFAIK delivered to customers

From article:
China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd said in August it expected to receive its first C919 by the end of the year, but that would require the model to be certified.
COMAC is years behind its initial certification schedule
 

lcloo

Senior Member
This doesnt have much sence, since they were talking about introducing it to customers by year end, how could be that percentage of certifying is so low?
I asume it is related to something else, like replacing most of the foreign parts/systems and recertify them all again

I tend to agree with your assumption in the bold part above, due to the below sentence in the CNA news article.

..."Reuters in September reported COMAC has found it harder to meet certification and production targets for the C919 amid tough U.S. export rules, according to three people with knowledge of the programme.

China Eastern Airlines Corp Ltd said in August it expected to receive its first C919 by the end of the year, but that would require the model to be certified."...

If US maintain tough export rules on certain components, including software, then many tests would have to be done all over again if alternative components and software are to be used.

I don't think COMAC would give press statement early this year for the end 2021 delivery to China Eastern Airlines if they had not completed majority of the tests on the originally intended American components. I think they are moving on to plan B with non-American components.
 

AF-1

Junior Member
Registered Member
If it is truth, that is much better to happen now at the beginning, than producing dozens of planes and fall into trap being unable to maintain it and to start all over again.
Make it all Chinese (with Russian engines for the beginning) even if it will take few more years. Also China should prolong MAX recertification for indefinite time...
 

lcloo

Senior Member
China market outlook for civil aircraft 2021- 2040, report by AVIC.

Via East Pendulum
Selon un rapport publié par AVIC, la Chine aura besoin de 7646 nouveaux avions de ligne - mono-couloir de classe C919 pour la plupart - et 650 avions cargos dans les 20 prochaines années. C'est environ 21% de la prévision mondiale réalisée par Airbus sur la même période.

Translated from French
China will need 7,646 new airliners - mostly C919-class single-aisle - and 650 cargo planes over the next 20 years, according to a report released by AVIC. This is around 21% of the global forecast made by Airbus over the same period.

0 1AE52Jr.jpg
 

Overbom

Colonel
Registered Member
I read that it might be reciprocal ( C919 ). Can someone confirm?
Sounds like a bad deal (if true). Boeing 737 MAX would be available almost immediately which means that it would get a lot of money from the Chinese market while the C919 will still need more years to pass its tests and certification

By 2024 and if Republicans are in control (high chance), they would just "delete" the deal and deny certification or put more serious exports ban thus massively delaying the C919 program

And even if Democrats are still in power, who can guarantee that the moment the C919 is certified, that the US wouldnt put more export bans??

You just cannot trust that they will keep their words (already proved that), while at the same time giving your enemy free money from your gigantic domestic market. All in all, bad deal
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
Sounds like a bad deal (if true). Boeing 737 MAX would be available almost immediately which means that it would get a lot of money from the Chinese market while the C919 will still need more years to pass its tests and certification

By 2024 and if Republicans are in control (high chance), they would just "delete" the deal and deny certification or put more serious exports ban thus massively delaying the C919 program

And even if Democrats are still in power, who can guarantee that the moment the C919 is certified, that the US wouldnt put more export bans??

You just cannot trust that they will keep their words (already proved that), while at the same time giving your enemy free money from your gigantic domestic market. All in all, bad deal
Then PRC can control the acquisition of Boeing within Mainland too. If not now, then the future. Boeing lobbying is key to the issue here. If Boeing manage to convince them that jobs will be lost and Airbus will win then they can bend.
 

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