China's Westward One Belt One Road Strategy


jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
Battle of control of Shan states between China and Myanmar is eerily similar to between Manchu empire and old Myanmar kingdom. There is general dislike from general Burmese toward Chinese as similar to Vietnamese toward Chinese because in history they were able repell invading Manchu forces and avoid sinicized.

Manchu could take down Myanmar kingdom if it had strike a deal with Siam or Thailand kingdom and allow it's imperial troop to go through Thailand and go to the flat coastal of Myanmar in South instead of going through the thick forrest.

If Manchu able to take down Myanmar kingdom, and ruled it, modern China would have myanmar as province much like yunnan.. China would have access to India ocean. Its current strategic vulnerability regarding to SCS would completely solved.



No.
Qing dynasty's greatest fault is its inability to allocate enough economic resources to built a strong navy. The reason is very simple. Manchu Qing Dynasty has a HUGE internal ethnic land-mine between the Han Chinese and the Manchu elites. Han Chinese are not only hugely more populous, they are also much more capable at trade, technology, education, and (especially) at sea-faring. If the Qing Dynasty gave a huge chunk of resources to naval building, or befriend and support SE Asia's and East China Sea's Chinese pirates with a large chunk of national resources, this will vastly upset the ethnic balance of power of the Qing Dynasty. Once the ethnic balance of power is upset, the Qing Dynasty will descend into total internal Chaos.

Therefore, even if the Qing Dynasty is successful against Myanmar, she will STILL NOT be able to fully utilize the geostrategic advantage of having access to Indian Ocean. And this will also only make Qing China more vulnerable to British/Western maritime invasion.
 
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PhSt

New Member
Registered Member
Interesting, after Ukraine's apparent capitulation to US demands by seizing Motor Sich from its Chinese investors, China is still going forward with its commitments to improve ties with Ukraine, I hope all this effort will pay off and is not just a waste of time.

 

ansy1968

Captain
Registered Member
Interesting, after Ukraine's apparent capitulation to US demands by seizing Motor Sich from its Chinese investors, China is still going forward with its commitments to improve ties with Ukraine, I hope all this effort will pay off and is not just a waste of time.

@PhSt My thinking, its a gratitude donation, Ukraine had help the Chinese military a lot from marine engine, missile technology, radars, large airplanes ( Antonov involvement in the Y20 development) and maybe some of Motor Sich blueprints tech for engine. $3billion of lost investment is cheap compare to what China had gained.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
@PhSt My thinking, its a gratitude donation, Ukraine had help the Chinese military a lot from marine engine, missile technology, radars, large airplanes ( Antonov involvement in the Y20 development) and maybe some of Motor Sich blueprints tech for engine. $3billion of lost investment is cheap compare to what China had gained.

Has China really lost $3B ?
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
@antiterror13 my apologies, I don't know I'm just stating the amount of investment state from western article.

No worries .... Very unlikely that China would lose that much, the biggest loser would be Ukraine as nobody else would want it. Ukraine would have to pay back what China has paid or offer China something else, no other way unfortunately .. otherwise nobody would want to invest in Ukraine

Unless the US govt would pay the Ukraine govt to pay back China ;)
 

ougoah

Major
Registered Member
@PhSt My thinking, its a gratitude donation, Ukraine had help the Chinese military a lot from marine engine, missile technology, radars, large airplanes ( Antonov involvement in the Y20 development) and maybe some of Motor Sich blueprints tech for engine. $3billion of lost investment is cheap compare to what China had gained.

All the Ukrainian assistance after the fall of the USSR came at cost. None of the experts who ended up working in China were doing so for free. No more charitable than a Chinese expert working in the US for pay.

When Ukrainian and Russian consultants and firms were brought in for assistance on any project from early fly by wire development to missiles and powerplants, they were all paid and a business transaction conducted.

I think you have made it sound like their services were free. Rest assured this is and never has been the case outside of some politically and ideologically motivated scientists and engineers who have "given more" to China in the past or settled in China rather than go to the US or western Europe for example. Plenty of Soviet engineers ended up on the other side of the political spectrum. Most probably left their home country for wherever had the better offers and opportunities.

Losing $3B is a net loss for China. Quite a non-trivial loss considering how far $3B go in China.
 

gelgoog

Captain
Registered Member
The governments which were in power back when those deals with Ukraine happened have nothing to do with the government in power right now. That was back when Ukraine wasn't a lackey of the US.
 

davidau

Junior Member
Registered Member
No.
Qing dynasty's greatest fault is its inability to allocate enough economic resources to built a strong navy. The reason is very simple. Manchu Qing Dynasty has a HUGE internal ethnic land-mine between the Han Chinese and the Manchu elites. Han Chinese are not only hugely more populous, they are also much more capable at trade, technology, education, and (especially) at sea-faring. If the Qing Dynasty gave a huge chunk of resources to naval building, or befriend and support SE Asia's and East China Sea's Chinese pirates with a large chunk of national resources, this will vastly upset the ethnic balance of power of the Qing Dynasty. Once the ethnic balance of power is upset, the Qing Dynasty will descend into total internal Chaos.

Therefore, even if the Qing Dynasty is successful against Myanmar, she will STILL NOT be able to fully utilize the geostrategic advantage of having access to Indian Ocean. And this will also only make Qing China more vulnerable to British/Western maritime invasion.
That was history. China is now strong, technically advanced, with a core of dedicated young and elderly scientists. Look at the ship building industries, both the military and the civilian. Since the1949 declaration of the Peoples Republic of China, China's navy has been transformed from ill-equipped yellow water navy to a blue water navy. Type 055 destroyer, which is over 10, 000 tons rates one of the best, if not the best, in the world and of course the aircraft carriers and other naval assets. China is the only country that sent a rover to the far-side of the moon and relays back images to earth. Now the Tianwen 1, in Mars parking orbit, will land on Mars with a rover by May/June. Then comes the China's Space Station in orbit between this year and the next couple of years and it will be fully functional. The FAST radio telescope at Quizhou which is the only one in the world since US lost its radio telescope due to damaging storms. These are only a few examples of new China's achievements. China's progress has been astonishing.
 

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