STOVL is frequently derided as being ineffective or a waste of money, but I see it as a technology and capability that has just not reached its inflection point yet. Just look at how long it took for electric cars or AI to mature and become commercially viable. Does that mean that all the effort that went into it before that point was wasted? Of course not. If people hadn't put the R&D effort into them, the tech would have never matured.China’s research on STOVL propulsion systems began about 10 years ago, but progress was initially slow. It only accelerated significantly after 2020, as evidenced by the increase in the number of research papers and patents. The development is clearly led by the 606 Institute, likely under the requirements of the 14th Five-Year Plan. I believe they will complete engine testing during the 15FYP period and simultaneously begin the formal development of STOVL aircraft. We can expect to see the results of the next phase by the end of the 15FYP period (around 2030).
I for one am fully convinced that STOVL capabilties will become increasingly common over the comming decades, and every bit spent on building out their enabling infrastructure will pay huge dividends.
