China's strategy in Korean peninsula


Phead128

Junior Member
Xi Jinping gave a personal pledge to give political support to Kim if US negotiates in bad faith. The Summit cancellation and Libya model farce is evidence that US is negotiating in bad faith, so Xi will see no use to continue harsh sanctions.

China's enforcement of sanctions was to get NK to the table. If it is US that makes trouble and cancelled summit, then NK claims they made sufficient peace overtures, China will give partial sanction relief.

Trump can't attack NK, because Xi will visit Pyongyang in June per Kim's invite.

So Trump has lost a lot of negotiating power by alienating Moon (didn't notify him prior to cancel), alienating China (trade war tariffs) and Kim (trolling hostages and nuke test site )

It is a mess and US has blame too. It's not all on NK as some people like to portray.
 

Phead128

Junior Member
Xi will visit Pyongyang in June per Kim's invite.

Xi meets Kim 3 times, and Kim meets Moon 2 times.

Tactically US won because they got 3 hostages back and nuke test site useless...

Strategically, NK won because US cancelled first, alienating Moon (sowing seeds of discourse in US-SK alliance) and got better NK-China ties, and US credibility took a huge hit.

So NK gets closer ties with China and SK, and US looks like an insolent child that might be bypassed altogether.

Kim can tell Moon his demands and Moon can kick out US troops and return wartime OPCON. China can offer sanction relief to NK given NK made good peace overtures.

The world doesn't revolve around US. NK will just work with China and SK, then US will see how much it's influence has dropped.
 
in this thread Thursday at 7:01 PM
s002wjh
is fast (LOL congrats) ...
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Sadly, I was forced to cancel the Summit Meeting in Singapore with Kim Jong Un.

and now I read
Trump says looking at U.S.-DPRK summit on June 12
Xinhua 2018-05-27 14:20:23
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U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that he is looking at the Singapore summit with Kim Jong Un, top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), on June 12.

"We're looking at June 12 in Singapore. It hasn't changed," Trump told reporters at the White House, adding that talks over the meeting were progressing well.

"We're doing very well in terms of the summit. It's moving along very nicely," he said.

There is "a lot of goodwill," the White House host said.

Trump canceled the scheduled meeting on Thursday, saying that it will not happen "based on the tremendous anger and open hostility" displayed in the DPRK's most recent statements.

However, he reversed course just one day after the announcement. Both sides wanted the meeting to happen and it could still go ahead after productive talks, he said.

A White House spokeswoman said on Saturday that a White House team will leave as scheduled for Singapore this weekend to prepare for the Trump-Kim talks.

Just hours earlier, the DPRK's official Korean Central News Agency said Kim expressed his "fixed will" to hold the summit when meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in Saturday at the truce village Panmunjom.

During the second meeting within a month on the northern side of the demarcation line of Panmunjom, Kim promised to further push forward the peace process on the Korean Peninsula by working for the goal of denuclearization and improving inter-Korean ties.

Pyongyang suspended the high-level talks with South Korea on May 16 in view of recent provocative acts such as the joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea.
 

advill

Junior Member
Re: 12 June 2018, Impending probable Talk between US President Trump & NK Chairman Kim --- I quote Hung Ying-Ming (1572-1620) "The peace that comes from peaceful surroundings is not true peace. Only in the peace obtained in the midst of activity is found the true sphere of one's original nature".
 

Phead128

Junior Member
Worst case, NK got much stronger ties with China and SK. And US looks like insolent child bypassed by SK as it directly deals with NK. Moon is infuriated at Trump's cancellation. (Sow seed of division in US-SK alliance).

I don't see NK desperate for a deal.
 
now I read
China encourages DPRK, U.S. to further show sincerity: FM
Xinhua| 2018-05-31 20:25:24
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China on Thursday expressed encouragement and support for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the United States to further demonstrate their sincerity, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said.

Spokesperson Hua Chunying made the remarks at a routine news briefing when answering a question related to the on-going preparations for the DPRK and U.S. leaders' meeting.

According to reports, preparations for the meeting are going on in New York, Singapore and in Panmunjom.

Hua said China is aware of the active preparations by the two sides for their leaders' meeting. China considers that direct contact and dialogue between the two leaders is the key to solving the Korean peninsula nuclear issue.

"There is a historic opportunity for breaking years of deadlock on the peninsula and realizing denuclearization," she said. "We encourage and support the two sides to further demonstrate their sincerity with positive interaction, in order to ensure the meeting will take place on schedule and jointly open the gate of a denuclearized, peaceful and prosperous future for the peninsula."

China is firmly committed to achieving the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, and appreciates the series of positive actions taken by the DPRK this year, said Hua, adding it is necessary to give attention to and resolve the DPRK's legitimate security concerns in promoting the denuclearization of the peninsula.

On media reports that Republic of Korea (ROK) President Moon Jae-in may also visit Singapore for a trilateral meeting with DPRK and U.S. leaders and together issue a declaration of the end of war, Hua said China supports the end of war at a early date, and advocates for the establishment of a lasting peace mechanism to replace the temporary armistice mechanism.

"As an important party to the peninsula issue and a party to armistice agreement, China has always worked and will continue to work for this purpose," she said.
 

advill

Junior Member
Liu Xiang "One who keeps talking and will NOT listen will never succeed" .... Good luck to the impending talks between Trump & Kim - hopefully taking place on 12 June in Singapore.
 

Phead128

Junior Member
Nobody believes US can credibly threaten war again. Chinese don't believe US will attack NK, China knows this, NK knows this, US knows this. Hence the illusion of results and tough talk, as each gives the other side a face-saving exit from their war threats.

US will begin their strategic abandonment of SK as the price for defense far outweighed by the likelihood of Seattle or Los Angeles getting targeted by retailitoy nuke strike if US comes to the aid of SK. NK will raise the price enormously high for US intervention in Korea again. US will strategically retreat and draw down US troops.
 

icbeodragon

Junior Member
Nobody believes US can credibly threaten war again. Chinese don't believe US will attack NK, China knows this, NK knows this, US knows this. Hence the illusion of results and tough talk, as each gives the other side a face-saving exit from their war threats.

US will begin their strategic abandonment of SK as the price for defense far outweighed by the likelihood of Seattle or Los Angeles getting targeted by retailitoy nuke strike if US comes to the aid of SK. NK will raise the price enormously high for US intervention in Korea again. US will strategically retreat and draw down US troops.
Why would the US unilaterally leave? NK shoots, whatever the outcome, the kim regime ends, and China has to deal with the (nuclear) fallout. Kim is interested more in regime longevity than attacking the US.

Very optimistic for China, just wait for the US to go away. Your scenario where SK ends the alliance is more likely, and even that is very unlikely.

Its pretty clear that Moon is pushing hard for US involvement , and remains committed to the alliance barring any further results in the talks. Of course, this is in SK's interest.

As long as NK maintains nukes, I seriously doubt that SK will give any thought to letting go of its insurance.
 

advill

Junior Member
I am very much a "student" of Ancient Chinese wise sayings. According to Confucius "To see what is right and not do it is want of courage". However, if Trump tries to be a "bull" in a China-shop at the impending talks with Kim, he will ruin everything aimed for mutual benefit. BTW, ferocious bulls are killed by the Matadors in Spain. Ole!
 

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