Can we trust the Taliban? Will they honor any future deals they make with China? 穷山恶水出刁民.
China's strategy in Afghanistan.
- Thread starter ohan_qwe
- Start date
What trust. China doesn't believe anyone words. It just sees if their actions follow their rhetoric.
Taliban has said it will not allow terrorism in Afghanistan or try to export it in neighboring countries. China says ok then, lets see what you do on the ground and then we can talk after some months.
China also wants a stable Afghanistan. Taliban says "we will totally create an inclusive government".
China says ok, the ball is on your field. Lets wait a few months and then we talk.
I suppose you understand what China is doing, right? China is diplomatic and ofc hesitant to deal with the Taliban until they show with actions that they will keep their promises.
Its business. As long as enough money flows to Afghanistan/Taliban as part of a deal, then they will also have a stake into protecting the Chinese investments. China is not stupid, until they are reasonably assured that safety is guaranteed, no big investment will happen.
Humanitarian aid, yes.
Small investments/grants but visible to the population (roads, clean water, electricity), yes
Big investments, no.
Overbom has answered the rest. I will answer this phrase as it over-simplifies things.
Yes, a barren land does produce people who make troubles to the rich. However they don't enjoy trouble-makings by birth. Take China's own history for comparison. Zhu Yuanzhang was a "刁民", but he founded the Ming dynasty, a major and rich one. Genghis Khan was a "刁民" but his grandson Kublai reunified China for good because he had a stake in peace and order. Nurhaci was a "刁民" but built another dynasty that shaped Modern China's boundary much larger than Ming. The CCP's founders are regarded as "刁民" by ROC but here we have the greatest period of China.
As Overbom has pointed out, it all depends on whether people have a stake in prosperity, not on what they are now.
That’s a given no? Always trust but verify. But the Taliban can.. and also can't be trusted.
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Loyalty doesn't exist in Afghanistan. Everyone in Afghanistan who isn't dead knows that factions, government and invaders come and go, and that only those with a certain ideological, moral and political.... flexibility.... survive. Ideological purity is not something political actors in Afghanistan can afford. The Taliban know this as well as anyone. They'll play nice with the Chinese as long as it is wise for them to do so - and that's good enough for both sides.
100%
If the Taliban are true to their word and want China to be their Principal Partner in the same manner of Pakistan, then we might start to see BRI extended into A-stan and with it, the modernisation of A-stan society.
The youth of A-stan are going to be watching Chinese films, vids and listening to Chinese music and with it will come modernity. Eventually, A-stan may even turn out like their other benefactor, Qatar.
The youth of A-stan are going to be watching Chinese films, vids and listening to Chinese music and with it will come modernity. Eventually, A-stan may even turn out like their other benefactor, Qatar.
The Taliban banned music... not sure they will be a big importer on non-islamic chinese culture
it is CLAIMED they banned music. not that they actually did. tons of misinformation out there re: afghanistan right now. I don't trust the Taliban, but I double don't trust ideological zealots.
The Taliban are no angels. They do have a terrible track record wrt human rights and terrorism during their first rule of Afghanistan.
Having said that. There is nothing much that China can do about the Taliban other than engaging with them. I mean what are the alternatives? There is the ex-Afghan govt who is pro-India, anti-Pakistan, and in extension anti-China. There is the Northern Alliance who are no different in ideology and savagery to the Taliban. And finally there are ISIS-K and Al-Qaeda; big no-no's. Ideally, Afghanistan should return to the old secular, socialist government prior to the Mujahideen uprising. But that doesn't look even remotely possible right now.
So I agree with the opinion that China needs to just trust and verify with the Taliban. If the Taliban does anything to undermind China or its neighbours, then they should be isolated very quickly. China can still prosper without Afghanistan, it has been doing it all along. But can Afghanistan prosper without China? Well they've already tried the West, India, and Islamic fundamentalism. So its up to them to decide.
Having said that. There is nothing much that China can do about the Taliban other than engaging with them. I mean what are the alternatives? There is the ex-Afghan govt who is pro-India, anti-Pakistan, and in extension anti-China. There is the Northern Alliance who are no different in ideology and savagery to the Taliban. And finally there are ISIS-K and Al-Qaeda; big no-no's. Ideally, Afghanistan should return to the old secular, socialist government prior to the Mujahideen uprising. But that doesn't look even remotely possible right now.
So I agree with the opinion that China needs to just trust and verify with the Taliban. If the Taliban does anything to undermind China or its neighbours, then they should be isolated very quickly. China can still prosper without Afghanistan, it has been doing it all along. But can Afghanistan prosper without China? Well they've already tried the West, India, and Islamic fundamentalism. So its up to them to decide.