China's strategic vulnerabilities


ougoah

Major
Registered Member
Nations and civilisation centres are often much like organisms or business organisations. They have start up phases, emergent phases, development phases, decline, and death. This stuff is often described and charted in great detail in MBA courses lol.

China or rather modern China is so poorly understood by strategists who have public platforms. Perhaps this is intentionally misleading but the quiet few understand that China today is in a similar position, in respect to global competitiveness and influence, to England just before the industrial revolution or the USA following up to WW2. It's potential and capabilities are overlooked and often underestimated still by most. This isn't to say China x years behind country A. That nonsense is honestly overly simplistic.

Many folks like to attribute innovation and creativity to some genetic quality. The racists especially fail to grasp the truth probably because of myopia. Old China died long ago and new China is currently emerging. The development phase is where most of your innovation comes and it will and must come. Innovation is not defined by genetics or even culture to a great extent. It is determined by economic circumstances. China has not reached its golden age, it's really only just begun development phase.

The period until 1980 is marked and defined by revolution, 1980 to 2010 was setting up the foundations of the emerging new China after the volatility and turmoil of revolution. Only about a decade into really "working" with a stabilised homeland, already the innovation and technology triumphs are flooding in. This is only a trickle compared to the flow that will be around in decades time while the fruits of the foundations become ripe for harvest. Already this trickle pioneered so many telecomm advancements, computing, fintech, all of which arguably represent the capability of what this new set of circumstances can offer even if all from the past are overlooked.

The ones handling the enemy's strategic policies probably understand all this too well and also know that China isn't yet arrived but will do in decades time and when it does, it will be in many ways the unipolar superpower that cannot be toppled quicky or easily much like the English were and the US post cold war. Of course there will be plenty of capable and near peer powers. Their work to disrupt this cycle and development pattern is clear and expected. Rather than presenting things fairly, different appraoches and methods are always going to be presented and accepted as immoral, inferior, unacceptable. Now it's more obvious why Chinese leaders took drastic measures to secure internal politics and social stability since the 1990s. Again, foundations take time to build and is often overlooked or ignored entirely.

China hasn't even really begun taking off yet and already it is a near peer adversary in many ways to the superpower. When China approaches the apex of its development phase, the science and technology in that world will resemble magic to us and the way society works may be very different for better or worse. Hopefully it all lifts humanity to another brighter age because dwelling in this evolutionary era of lower level reptilian brain is not the ultimate destination for humanity.
 

Gatekeeper

Colonel
Registered Member
I'm sorry it's in Chinese. But I'm sure you guys can read Chinese. And if not, you got translation service.

Here, I'm liking Trudeau less and less. He has taking the lead with the other members of the G7 in containing China. Basically, they going to make it a joint effort in anyone detaining foreign nationals as an 'attack' on all members of this group. In so doing they are involving all the Anglo five eyes, some Europeans and of course, the little islanders called Japan.

與美國朋比為奸,無理拘押華為副董事長孟晚舟逾兩年的加拿大政府,周一竟發起一項由58個國家參與的倡議,要求一些國家停止任意拘押外國公民作為外交籌碼的做法。
據外媒報道,58國外長共同簽署了一份不具約束力的宣言,簽署國家包括美國、日本、英國、澳洲及大部分歐盟成員國。加拿大外長加諾表示,這一聲明不針對任何國家,目的只是為向那些拘留外國人的國家以及有可能使用這種做法的國家施加更多外交壓力。然而一名加拿外交官員表示,這項倡議是針對中國、伊朗、俄羅斯和朝鮮等國家而提出。
早在這份宣言正式公布前,《環球時報》已發文引述專家表示,這項行動是侵略和惡意攻擊,目的在對中國挑釁,並指這只會是搬起石頭砸自己的腳。
加拿大賊喊捉賊,仲好意思提出「停止任意拘押外國公民」,放咗孟晚舟先講啦!


FB_IMG_1613497626584.jpg
 

SilentObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
Long term US is hedging the interdependence of Eurasia through the support of neo-Ottoman ambitions. Under leadership of Erdogan, its been made clear that these ambitions are being actively pursued. His successors will likely maintain momentum.

The overseas expansions of European navies was fuelled by the desire to by-pass the Ottoman empire that controlled the Levant and Egypt, effectively controlling the oceanic "silk road" passage. Europe was incentivized to by pass Ottoman territories to avoid paying tolls to a powerful adversary at their door step who was actively waging war against them. The process of neo-Ottoman revival would fuel conflict around its boundaries making Eurasian integration difficult.

The US showed Turkey the carrot and stick. Carrot is the tolerance of neo-Ottoman ambitions within the current context and the stick is the occasional support of Kurdish forces which threatens its territorial integrity. Even if neo-Ottoman ambitions doesn't involve destabilizing other nations, US would shape Tukey's growth to fit its foreign policy strategy.

The overall trend that many American think tanks see is the further integration of EU, decline of Russia, and rise of Turkey.

For China this presents a threat and opportunity. A powerful Turkey to the extent of the Ottoman empire would try to destabilize Xinjiang and will motivate other Islamic nations to support that as well, paper agreements won't do any good. They would advertise themselves as the leader of of Turkic world as well as the Caliphate of the entire Islamic world, motivating other nations to carry out Turkey's policies. This might present an opportunity to cooperate with Europe and Arab states beyond just current economic ties.
 

Top