China's strategic vulnerabilities


ansy1968

Major
Registered Member
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I thought the US needed no one yet Navarro just saying the China trade deal is over sinks the stock market to where Trump and Navarro in panic had to walk back his earlier comments.

Hi AssassinsMace

TRUMP INCOHERENT TRADE POLICY, you know I really want TRUMP to win,he is not a WASHINGTON INSIDER, but he surround himself with lowlife and pathetic adviser, with BOLTON , POMPEO and NAVARRO. He really need to DRAIN THE SWAMP, his inexperience shows he need good people to help him.
 

Waqar Khan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hi guys,

If things get very bad between China and the US (say, a conflict over Taiwan), what would China do in the following scenarios?

Scenario 1: U.S. Implements a total chip ban on China

Basically place the entire country on the "entity list" similar to that of Huawei. China's total indigenous semiconductor capacity is very far behind; currently choked at the 90 nm SMEE lithography node level. That means that they would no longer be able to build or import modern computers, including smartphones. Over time, this would obviously degrade their access to the Internet, and the whole IT economy. Including China's military being crippled eventually due to lack of cutting edge chips.

Scenario 2: Cut out of the SWIFT banking system

The SWIFT system is an information exchange system among international financial institutions. The bank card payment function supported by the SWIFT system is the reflection of a country's financial security. In the Ukraine crisis in 2014, the United States and Europe imposed sanctions across multiple sectors, including financial sanctions against Russia. The goal of such an extreme measure was to cut off the Russian banks from the SWIFT system, thereby crashing the Russian bank card payment system and in turn disrupting domestic and foreign economic activities. Although this measure was not actualized in the end, its threat to the Russian financial system has become an urgent issue for the country to address.

The same could be imposed on China.

In terms of membership composition, almost all the important financial institutions in the world are SWIFT members.

Scenario 3: Ban Chinese apps

Certain apps such as WeChat and Alipay have become core and base for Chinese society and the Chinese economy. However, these apps run on U.S. Google Android and Apple iOS operating systems. If these apps were banned from these operating systems, banned from the "Google Play Store" and the "Apple App Store" they could no longer be available. This could cause widespread chaos throughout China's economy. Other companies like Baidu and Alibaba could be banned as well instantly destroying their parent companies.

Scenario 4: Cut off oil

While the U.S. economy has become more energy self-sufficient over the past decade, the opposite is now true of China, which is now the world's largest energy importer of over 10 million barrels a day, a record level in 2019. If the U.S. closes the Persian Gulf, Panama Canal, or the Straits of Malacca then it can cut off China's supply of oil from OPEC members, which is 55% of the supply. China might be able to make up some of these with inland sources. However China's current sourcing from Iran is very low due to U.S. sanctions, while only about 15% of China's oil imports come from Russia. These run on long pipelines and some of the pipelines run through central Asia. These pipelines are very vulnerable to being crippled by a missile strike.

There are likely other scenarios not mentioned here. For instance, since Boeing and Airbus are the duopoly suppliers to China's aerospace industry, a cutoff here could cause chaos in China's commercial aviation market's ability to grow.

Today are not the days of Mao Zedong hiding in the mountains anymore. China is no longer autarkic and integrated with the world. What could it do to these scenarios, or is there no defense?
These are not on off buttons,the international system does not run on dreams and wishes,China response options could be in multiple domains,even Chinese ban on US Soybeans can affect American farmers.International chain of goods and commodities is too complex to be disrupted by such acts.
 

Waqar Khan

Junior Member
Registered Member
So
Hi guys,

If things get very bad between China and the US (say, a conflict over Taiwan), what would China do in the following scenarios?

Scenario 1: U.S. Implements a total chip ban on China

Basically place the entire country on the "entity list" similar to that of Huawei. China's total indigenous semiconductor capacity is very far behind; currently choked at the 90 nm SMEE lithography node level. That means that they would no longer be able to build or import modern computers, including smartphones. Over time, this would obviously degrade their access to the Internet, and the whole IT economy. Including China's military being crippled eventually due to lack of cutting edge chips.

Scenario 2: Cut out of the SWIFT banking system

The SWIFT system is an information exchange system among international financial institutions. The bank card payment function supported by the SWIFT system is the reflection of a country's financial security. In the Ukraine crisis in 2014, the United States and Europe imposed sanctions across multiple sectors, including financial sanctions against Russia. The goal of such an extreme measure was to cut off the Russian banks from the SWIFT system, thereby crashing the Russian bank card payment system and in turn disrupting domestic and foreign economic activities. Although this measure was not actualized in the end, its threat to the Russian financial system has become an urgent issue for the country to address.

The same could be imposed on China.

In terms of membership composition, almost all the important financial institutions in the world are SWIFT members.

Scenario 3: Ban Chinese apps

Certain apps such as WeChat and Alipay have become core and base for Chinese society and the Chinese economy. However, these apps run on U.S. Google Android and Apple iOS operating systems. If these apps were banned from these operating systems, banned from the "Google Play Store" and the "Apple App Store" they could no longer be available. This could cause widespread chaos throughout China's economy. Other companies like Baidu and Alibaba could be banned as well instantly destroying their parent companies.

Scenario 4: Cut off oil

While the U.S. economy has become more energy self-sufficient over the past decade, the opposite is now true of China, which is now the world's largest energy importer of over 10 million barrels a day, a record level in 2019. If the U.S. closes the Persian Gulf, Panama Canal, or the Straits of Malacca then it can cut off China's supply of oil from OPEC members, which is 55% of the supply. China might be able to make up some of these with inland sources. However China's current sourcing from Iran is very low due to U.S. sanctions, while only about 15% of China's oil imports come from Russia. These run on long pipelines and some of the pipelines run through central Asia. These pipelines are very vulnerable to being crippled by a missile strike.

There are likely other scenarios not mentioned here. For instance, since Boeing and Airbus are the duopoly suppliers to China's aerospace industry, a cutoff here could cause chaos in China's commercial aviation market's ability to grow.

Today are not the days of Mao Zedong hiding in the mountains anymore. China is no longer autarkic and integrated with the world. What could it do to these scenarios, or is there no defense?
Some of the scenarios are based on Study by CSET through Georgetown and have already been found to be archaic and flimsy.How can you shut down Chinese Oil?For that US has to establish sea blockade in entire Indo Pacific and Gulf,not possible.These are acts of war and You should expect a Military response,Presently US is pulling out of Afghanistan and Iraq after 19 years of fruitless war and virtually no results.Even dealing with Iranian Navy in the small Gulf region has become problematic.Iran is using second generation technology combined with swarm attacks of drones and missiles,What could the mighty US and her 46 allies do against Iran,militarily?
Chinese strategy will not be defensive only,can they target the CONUS through swarm warfare(in multiple domains),thats is a big question. Already John Bolton is exposing Trump on asking China for help in elections.US executive,legislature and Intelligence community is already dagger drawn against each other and not able to manage protests by BLM and the Left,the icons of Colonial past and Confederate statue are being violated and brought down,its a semi civil war.So first the West needs to put her own house in order and than think of destabilizing the world.
Chinese demographic profile is too strong to be rubbished by few research papers written in the cozy class rooms of American universities.This forum needs some thinking and no trivia.
 

Waqar Khan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hi guys,

If things get very bad between China and the US (say, a conflict over Taiwan), what would China do in the following scenarios?

Scenario 1: U.S. Implements a total chip ban on China

Basically place the entire country on the "entity list" similar to that of Huawei. China's total indigenous semiconductor capacity is very far behind; currently choked at the 90 nm SMEE lithography node level. That means that they would no longer be able to build or import modern computers, including smartphones. Over time, this would obviously degrade their access to the Internet, and the whole IT economy. Including China's military being crippled eventually due to lack of cutting edge chips.

Scenario 2: Cut out of the SWIFT banking system

The SWIFT system is an information exchange system among international financial institutions. The bank card payment function supported by the SWIFT system is the reflection of a country's financial security. In the Ukraine crisis in 2014, the United States and Europe imposed sanctions across multiple sectors, including financial sanctions against Russia. The goal of such an extreme measure was to cut off the Russian banks from the SWIFT system, thereby crashing the Russian bank card payment system and in turn disrupting domestic and foreign economic activities. Although this measure was not actualized in the end, its threat to the Russian financial system has become an urgent issue for the country to address.

The same could be imposed on China.

In terms of membership composition, almost all the important financial institutions in the world are SWIFT members.

Scenario 3: Ban Chinese apps

Certain apps such as WeChat and Alipay have become core and base for Chinese society and the Chinese economy. However, these apps run on U.S. Google Android and Apple iOS operating systems. If these apps were banned from these operating systems, banned from the "Google Play Store" and the "Apple App Store" they could no longer be available. This could cause widespread chaos throughout China's economy. Other companies like Baidu and Alibaba could be banned as well instantly destroying their parent companies.

Scenario 4: Cut off oil

While the U.S. economy has become more energy self-sufficient over the past decade, the opposite is now true of China, which is now the world's largest energy importer of over 10 million barrels a day, a record level in 2019. If the U.S. closes the Persian Gulf, Panama Canal, or the Straits of Malacca then it can cut off China's supply of oil from OPEC members, which is 55% of the supply. China might be able to make up some of these with inland sources. However China's current sourcing from Iran is very low due to U.S. sanctions, while only about 15% of China's oil imports come from Russia. These run on long pipelines and some of the pipelines run through central Asia. These pipelines are very vulnerable to being crippled by a missile strike.

There are likely other scenarios not mentioned here. For instance, since Boeing and Airbus are the duopoly suppliers to China's aerospace industry, a cutoff here could cause chaos in China's commercial aviation market's ability to grow.

Today are not the days of Mao Zedong hiding in the mountains anymore. China is no longer autarkic and integrated with the world. What could it do to these scenarios, or is there no defense?
When US led coalition of 46 countries entered West Asia(Iraq and Afghanistan) after 9/11 with Bush-Rice-Rumsfeld's shock and Awe doctrine,did any one imagine that war will linger on till 2020? what was the technology and economy of Afghan resistance?Comparatively it was a military ratio of 1:1000.As the Chinese defense analysts (
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), projected in "Unrestricted Warfare" the Corn Comb gobbling Afghan was pitched against the the so called high tech McDonald's,it is Afghan will and tenacity which brought the mighty Uncle Sam to negotiating table in Doha.See the end state.Now analyse Chinese will and wherewithal,You will get the answer.
 

Waqar Khan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hi guys,

If things get very bad between China and the US (say, a conflict over Taiwan), what would China do in the following scenarios?

Scenario 1: U.S. Implements a total chip ban on China

Basically place the entire country on the "entity list" similar to that of Huawei. China's total indigenous semiconductor capacity is very far behind; currently choked at the 90 nm SMEE lithography node level. That means that they would no longer be able to build or import modern computers, including smartphones. Over time, this would obviously degrade their access to the Internet, and the whole IT economy. Including China's military being crippled eventually due to lack of cutting edge chips.

Scenario 2: Cut out of the SWIFT banking system

The SWIFT system is an information exchange system among international financial institutions. The bank card payment function supported by the SWIFT system is the reflection of a country's financial security. In the Ukraine crisis in 2014, the United States and Europe imposed sanctions across multiple sectors, including financial sanctions against Russia. The goal of such an extreme measure was to cut off the Russian banks from the SWIFT system, thereby crashing the Russian bank card payment system and in turn disrupting domestic and foreign economic activities. Although this measure was not actualized in the end, its threat to the Russian financial system has become an urgent issue for the country to address.

The same could be imposed on China.

In terms of membership composition, almost all the important financial institutions in the world are SWIFT members.

Scenario 3: Ban Chinese apps

Certain apps such as WeChat and Alipay have become core and base for Chinese society and the Chinese economy. However, these apps run on U.S. Google Android and Apple iOS operating systems. If these apps were banned from these operating systems, banned from the "Google Play Store" and the "Apple App Store" they could no longer be available. This could cause widespread chaos throughout China's economy. Other companies like Baidu and Alibaba could be banned as well instantly destroying their parent companies.

Scenario 4: Cut off oil

While the U.S. economy has become more energy self-sufficient over the past decade, the opposite is now true of China, which is now the world's largest energy importer of over 10 million barrels a day, a record level in 2019. If the U.S. closes the Persian Gulf, Panama Canal, or the Straits of Malacca then it can cut off China's supply of oil from OPEC members, which is 55% of the supply. China might be able to make up some of these with inland sources. However China's current sourcing from Iran is very low due to U.S. sanctions, while only about 15% of China's oil imports come from Russia. These run on long pipelines and some of the pipelines run through central Asia. These pipelines are very vulnerable to being crippled by a missile strike.

There are likely other scenarios not mentioned here. For instance, since Boeing and Airbus are the duopoly suppliers to China's aerospace industry, a cutoff here could cause chaos in China's commercial aviation market's ability to grow.

Today are not the days of Mao Zedong hiding in the mountains anymore. China is no longer autarkic and integrated with the world. What could it do to these scenarios, or is there no defense?
Taiwan question is important to understand. Take the cue from what happened in Ukraine and Crimea,how the Russian checkmated NATO's expansion in Russian backyard,What did NATO do? Actually it allowed Ukraine to split along a line east of the Dnieper River.Will china response on Taiwan take a similar shape?Looking at Ladakh standoff between India and China,China has not overrun the Himalayas or Karakuram and India doesn't have a response. Post Truth world is different and slight change of position on ground can challenge the so called chaotic democracies and build immense pressure on the leadership(politico Military);thus creating a snowball on social media and paralyzing strategic response. Indo Pacific and Quad has not come to rescue of India as you cannot ply submarines and Air craft carriers in Himalayas.NATO got bogged down in Afghan mountains,despite the might of NATO and 46 allies.Do some Strategic thinking and you will get the answers.Maps are deceptive,people are not.
 

Waqar Khan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hi guys,

If things get very bad between China and the US (say, a conflict over Taiwan), what would China do in the following scenarios?

Scenario 1: U.S. Implements a total chip ban on China

Basically place the entire country on the "entity list" similar to that of Huawei. China's total indigenous semiconductor capacity is very far behind; currently choked at the 90 nm SMEE lithography node level. That means that they would no longer be able to build or import modern computers, including smartphones. Over time, this would obviously degrade their access to the Internet, and the whole IT economy. Including China's military being crippled eventually due to lack of cutting edge chips.

Scenario 2: Cut out of the SWIFT banking system

The SWIFT system is an information exchange system among international financial institutions. The bank card payment function supported by the SWIFT system is the reflection of a country's financial security. In the Ukraine crisis in 2014, the United States and Europe imposed sanctions across multiple sectors, including financial sanctions against Russia. The goal of such an extreme measure was to cut off the Russian banks from the SWIFT system, thereby crashing the Russian bank card payment system and in turn disrupting domestic and foreign economic activities. Although this measure was not actualized in the end, its threat to the Russian financial system has become an urgent issue for the country to address.

The same could be imposed on China.

In terms of membership composition, almost all the important financial institutions in the world are SWIFT members.

Scenario 3: Ban Chinese apps

Certain apps such as WeChat and Alipay have become core and base for Chinese society and the Chinese economy. However, these apps run on U.S. Google Android and Apple iOS operating systems. If these apps were banned from these operating systems, banned from the "Google Play Store" and the "Apple App Store" they could no longer be available. This could cause widespread chaos throughout China's economy. Other companies like Baidu and Alibaba could be banned as well instantly destroying their parent companies.

Scenario 4: Cut off oil

While the U.S. economy has become more energy self-sufficient over the past decade, the opposite is now true of China, which is now the world's largest energy importer of over 10 million barrels a day, a record level in 2019. If the U.S. closes the Persian Gulf, Panama Canal, or the Straits of Malacca then it can cut off China's supply of oil from OPEC members, which is 55% of the supply. China might be able to make up some of these with inland sources. However China's current sourcing from Iran is very low due to U.S. sanctions, while only about 15% of China's oil imports come from Russia. These run on long pipelines and some of the pipelines run through central Asia. These pipelines are very vulnerable to being crippled by a missile strike.

There are likely other scenarios not mentioned here. For instance, since Boeing and Airbus are the duopoly suppliers to China's aerospace industry, a cutoff here could cause chaos in China's commercial aviation market's ability to grow.

Today are not the days of Mao Zedong hiding in the mountains anymore. China is no longer autarkic and integrated with the world. What could it do to these scenarios, or is there no defense?
Wars and confrontations are costly.As per Statista It is estimated that, since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the global war on terror cost the United States government just over 5.4 trillion U.S. dollars. This figure includes estimates of all budgetary spending related to the war on terror between FY 2001 and FY 2020. This figure of 5.4 trillion does not include the ongoing medical and disability expenditure for veterans beyond FY 2020, which is estimated to cost an additional one trillion U.S. dollars by FY 2059.
What are the results? US debt is 21.29 trillion dollars and growing at a rate of 5000 dollars per second,so as I type on my desk top for this comment,the debt will add another million dollars. Cutting trees and Printing the Greenback does not make you financially viable. US has already outsources the manufacturing and technical expertise oversees.trump's desire for America first is a dream,u cannot build technical expertise in five years,it requires a life time. these are some of additional factors that we must keep in mind before drawing conclusions on What can be done against China.
 

Totoro

Captain
VIP Professional
The single biggest strategic vulnerability china has is relative lack of allies and potentially small world market acess if it cant intice enough countries to be neutral and contimie trading freely with it.

Evertying else, the weapons, geography, oil etc is secondary.
 

Waqar Khan

Junior Member
Registered Member
The single biggest strategic vulnerability china has is relative lack of allies and potentially small world market acess if it cant intice enough countries to be neutral and contimie trading freely with it.

Evertying else, the weapons, geography, oil etc is secondary.
How do you define Allies?
 

Brainsuker

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think the weakness of China is their lack of capability to demonize their adversary. While US is an expert propaganda that capable to do so. Look at those countries that oppose US. Libya, Syria, Iran, Iraq (Saddam Husein), , Venezuela, North Korea, China, Russia. They are all the victim of US propaganda to demonize them. When US attack Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, everyone cheer on US and condemn those countries. Like today China is the target of US demonization.

In contrary, China doesn't has the capability to demonize others. That's why they always become the victim of being "The bad guy" in any confrontation that China face. To be honest, this weakness is critical for them in diplomatic war that they're on, today.

Plus, CCP in Xi Jinping leadership is more idealistic than previous Dengist faction leadership. Xi political maneuver is more Mao Zedong than Deng Xiaoping. Mao Zedong, the symbol of idealistic in China, while Deng Xiaoping is the pragmatic one. Although Mao was no mean a bad leader (he's good, actually), but his political maneuver was surely lack of "Tay Chi" element. And Xi today is also lack of that "Tay Chi" element that used by Deng Xiao Ping's faction leadership previously. That's why China today is vulnerable to be demonized by the American propaganda.

Not only that, they even willingly to open themselves to be demonized by the American. Like putting salt to the wound.
 
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