China's Space Program Thread II

[ZachL111]

A bit random, but I'm curious, what are we thinking China's launch count will be for 2026?

I do know it's a bit early to speculate but I am just curious what everyone thinks. I think this year we are going to see 85-87 if everything works out, according to NOTAMS I can see.

 

[Daniel707]

The Twin VAB for CZ-10/10A have topped out.

 

[Asug]

Немного неожиданно, но мне интересно, каково, по нашему мнению, количество запусков, которое Китай осуществит в 2026 году?

Знаю, пока рано делать предположения, но мне просто интересно, что думают остальные. Думаю, в этом году, если всё сложится удачно, мы увидим 85-87, судя по НОТАМам, которые я вижу.

100!

 

[TheRathalos]

100!

A bit random, but I'm curious, what are we thinking China's launch count will be for 2026?

I do know it's a bit early to speculate but I am just curious what everyone thinks. I think this year we are going to see 85-87 if everything works out, according to NOTAMS I can see.

I think 100 is a bit too many.

This is my personal count of planned launches for this month based on tour agencies, NOTAM and recent announcements, Blue check currently have NOTAM (Hyperbola had one but was delayed).

-3/12 Zhuque-3 JSLC
-5/12 Kuaizhou 1A JSLC
-6/12 CZ-8A WSLC
-8/12 CZ-6A TSLC
-9/12 CZ-2D JSLC
-9/12 CZ-3B XSLC
-10/12 Lijian-1 JSLC
-7-11/12 Ceres-2 JSLC
-11/12 CZ-12 WSLC
-12/12 CZ-12A JSLC
-early-mid dec Hyperbola 1 JSLC
-17/12 CZ-12H (possibly Gravity-1) Haiyang
-20/12 CZ-5 WSLC
-25/12 Lijian-1 JSLC
-26/12 CZ-8A WSLC
-27/12 CZ-3B XSLC
-29/12 CZ-6A TSLC
-31/12 CZ-7A WSLC
-Late Dec Tianlong 3 JSLC
-Late Dec? Kuaizhou 11 JSLC
-Late Dec? Jielong 3 Yangjiang
-Dec? Zhuque-2E JSLC
-Dec? Ceres-1S Haiyang

In addition there can be an absolute maximum additional 2 CZ-2/4 launches from Jiuquan and Taiyuan, but nothing indicates that so far.
We're at 80 launch attempts (77 successes), this would add up to 100 launches attempts, 103 absolute maximum (97-100 successes), but that requires a very unlikely flawless performance from all the organisations, including 3-4 maiden launches, including commercial companies that are much more likely to face delays, and even CASC's more reliable schedule can face small delays that push end-of-month launches to 2026 (but it's generally a better idea to count chinese launches on a spring festival to spring festival schedule).
High 80s is probably a realistic pessimistic schedule, and mid-90s is a realistic optimistic schedule.

With the 14th launch of Guowang today, China has officially hit 80 launches in 2025, a new record for them, and as I said prior, they’re only the third nation to achieve this mark, ever. Russia/Soviets, the U.S., and now China.

Edit: Here is the mission patch and photos and some more information unique to the launch.

https://imgur.com/a/sMtyn8Q

I believe they mentioned this launch used coal-based kerosene, which is much better for high-frequency launching of rockets. They’re also looking to iterate a new engine soon on this vehicle, B series, and launch once a month next year.

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Here's an article on the Chinese Rocket Kerozene and especially Rocket Coal based Kerozene. It was already used on CZ-12 so HICAL is just harmonizing it over its space center. In fact Coal Based kerozene (which is a project of CASC AALPT) use in launcher had been planned for over a decade since the first CZ-6 launch so this is long overdue.

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Thread on the Yaogan-46's MEO Orbit.

 

[RCBarbosa]

80?

Are you counting the March 1 anomaly?

 

[ZachL111]

The 15th group of Guowang satellites was launched aboard a Long March 6A today, flying from Taiyuan, requiring special insulative materials and measures to be properly supported.

https://imgur.com/a/nh2Ji2s

Edit: This means that 118 Guowang satellites are in space, compared to 108 for SpaceSail. Also, of note, different vehicles launch different amounts, due to heavier and lighter payloads of this satellite.

This was the 19th launch of the Long March 6A, the 613th launch of the Long March series overall, and the 81st launch from China in 2025.

 

[ZachL111]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997839444091781135

We can also see the Long March 12 being transported to Wenchang, Pad 2, Ace is saying that the rumors that the Long March 12A are flying on the 12th might be wrong I think? I will keep everyone updated as things change if possible. I think we actually have two more launches today as well, what a day. Updated count at the end of the day should be 83 launches attempted in 2025.

 

[TheRathalos]

80?

Are you counting the March 1 anomaly?

Yes, it's not exactly sure if it failed before or after the t-0 (one rumour I've read is 3rd stage explosion at t-90s when the rocket went on internal power, but other seem to indicate a failure at launch) but considering it destroyed rocket, payload and likely significantly damaged the TEL (since the recent JSLC Kuaizhou launch used another) it's more honest to count it as a failed launch attempt as far as statistics are considered.

In addition there can be an absolute maximum additional 2 CZ-2/4 launches from Jiuquan and Taiyuan, but nothing indicates that so far.

Correction: things do indicate that now, on the other hand it's confirmed the next Gravity 1 will not launch until January.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1997839444091781135

We can also see the Long March 12 being transported to Wenchang, Pad 2, Ace is saying that the rumors that the Long March 12A are flying on the 12th might be wrong I think? I will keep everyone updated as things change if possible. I think we actually have two more launches today as well, what a day. Updated count at the end of the day should be 83 launches attempted in 2025.

Current rumours say 12A 15th-17th

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"In Wenchang International Aerospace City, a super factory with an annual production capacity of 1,000 satellites is about to go into operation, enabling seamless "satellite delivery and launch." Currently, more than 20 upstream and downstream companies in the industry chain have signed agreements to settle in the city, and the entire ecosystem of rocket R&D, satellite manufacturing, and launch telemetry and control is becoming increasingly complete."
" In addition, the factory will support the implementation of the "Thousand Sails Plan," promoting the large-scale networking of low-Earth orbit satellite constellations. "

After Guowang (CASC) and

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's constellations, we have confirmation that Spacesail is also going to set shop in the Wenchang satellite superfactory. Being honest i'm not expecting huge production rate from this factory in the very near term, if only because the near term objectives of Guowang (400 by 2027) which is the main user wouldn't need it, and Spacesail & Hongqing have smaller production goals from this superfactory (100/year for the later), than others so they seem to bet that their already existing producers/factories at Shanghai and Beijing/Xiong'an will be enough for near term objectives.

Also no news on Shenzhou 21 1st EVA (which was suspected to include a Shenzhou 20 capsule inspection), maybe there was a delay (CME risks?), or maybe it did happen and they're going back to the secrecy of some of the earlier missions (like Shenzhou 15)

 

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1998226517441327293

CAS developed light cargo spacecraft here that can transport 1.8t to space station.

 

[ZachL111]

I think we actually have two more launches today as well, what a day. Updated count at the end of the day should be 83 launches attempted in 2025.

I'll split this into two posts in case people want to discuss either specifically, to make it easier to read.

The Yaogan-47 remote sensing spacecraft was launched into SSO from Jiuquan aboard a Long March 4B, as usual the generic description of a remote sensing/observation satellite was given. This also had to be adapted to lower temp like the previous launch. Not much else is to be said about it, I suppose. This was the 54th launch of the Long March 4B, the 614th launch of the Long March series, and the 82nd launch from China in 2025.

Included below, as with all launch posts, is mission patch and a few photos.

https://imgur.com/a/7VrZe1V