We both understand that it's unreasonable for him to compare faith in China with Indian chest-thumping. I think it's reasonable to be cautious but also reasonable to go by track record. To guarantee that China can catch up (and surpass) the US in space launch if it is deemed necessary by China is reasonable because China has mastered more difficult technologies and it is moving faster than then US in every technology that I can think of.
That's not really the full matter debated. I don't see China making a concentrated push or effort like in lithography for this. China may deem what we have as sufficient and not choose to invest to overtake the US in this field. However, as I said before, I am fully confident (although I can understand a position of caution) that if the CCP deems this as a national priority, we can catch up to and overtake the US.
Actually what I wrote was the actual full matter being debated. To quote the post that you replied to:
.... as if Chinas future success in catching up to spacex/starlink is a given. I never take anything for granted , I often prefer to be more cautious actually, since nobody is guaranteed about the future .
I assume that most people would interpret "future success in catching up to spacex/starlink" is in context of whatever timespan exists to close the gap in a way that does not cause an irreversible or difficult to reverse long term trend -- keep in mind SpaceX itself and Starlink et al is a moving target, they are not staying still.
But track records do.
No one is entirely unemotive but I pointed out that it is at least as reasonable to assume success by track record as it is to be cautious simply because what isn't done always has a possibility of remaining undone, depending on the doer's ability and will. What is entirely unreasonable is to compare the faith that China has earned through its track record of performance with unsupported Indian troll chest thumping.
It's reasonable to say that China has a chance to close the gap and/or catch up with SpaceX in capability.
It is not reasonable to say that China is guaranteed to do catch up. If you seriously think China is guaranteed in doing so, then that is a level of confidence that is more consistent with Jai Hind style chest beating.
Edit: and if the argument is "China is guaranteed to succeed to catch up if they really tried, but right now they just aren't trying because it's not a priority" then that's an even worse thing to say.
