China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
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The USN is very hush hush about its undersea surveillance capabilities, so you're not going to find an abundance of publicly available reporting on the subject matter, especially anything with specific technical parameters.
The PLAN is reasonably, if not highly cognizant of what the USN is capable of in the undersea domain, and has sought to both replicate and counter American capabilities.
Hard to say how far the PLAN has progressed in their efforts, but they should possess weapons systems analogous to whatever was used to target the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022. Such weapons systems can obviously be employed to destroy adversarial undersea sensors, if not entire surveillance arrays, but no idea how far the PLAN has gone in terms of pre-emptively mining adversarial undersea targets.
Though I imagine the PLAN has at a minimum "actively experimented" with non-explosive approaches for disrupting and degrading USN surveillance nodes, if not entire systems, and continue to pursue such capabilities.
You may find some of the publicly available Chinese writeups on American undersea surveillance capabilities to be of interest: , and .
Some of the Chinese papers on this subject matter have even captured the attention of .
Despite short and medium term ebbs and flows, the most plausible scenario forward for the Philippines — considering the firm realities of regional geography and trade flows — will be growing political alignment with and further economic dependency on China in the medium and long term.
This will culminate with the termination of the likely following, if not as a result of the PLA's seizure of the island of Taiwan and/or another military conflict.
Not sure just when this will happen: I would've imagined at a later point of the current century. However, considering the unpredictability of the current administration governing Washington, compounded by the visible increase in the frequency of black swan events in recent years, the establishment of permanent(-ish) pro-Beijing political structures in Manila may occur sooner than previously expected.
The local ethnic Chinese community or , and have occupied a commanding role in local trade, commerce and industry since the last century:
Once Manila is firmly in Beijing's camp politically, further immigration and investment may very well establish a(n ethnic) Chinese ruling class in the Philippines with fairly overt control of both the local economy and government.
No reasonable analyst expects the Philippines to become Sinicized in totality or to ever fall under Beijing's de jure rule, but in the grand scheme of history, geography will inevitably pull the Philippines towards, if not into the Sinosphere.
Carriers need to be 2000km away from Chinese coastlines. Any closer they’ll get sunk by PLARF.
Pinoy bases will be attack with DF missiles first, then get visited by glide bombs launched by H6s and J-16s
There are 9 bases to be built and/or improved under the EDCA. The closest air base to Taiwan will be Cagayan North International Airport while the closest naval base will be the Camilo Osias Naval Base. Both are on the northern tip of Luzon.
PLAN sent an electronic surveillance ship, Tianwangxing to observe the Cope Thunder exercise featuring US F-35As taking off from Filipino soil. Philippines CG sent a cutter, Teresa Magbanbua to bark at her, demanding the Tianwangxing to answer its radio hails. The Chinese ship ignores the PCG cutter. Then the 052D destroyer, Guilin escorted the Tianwangxing both continued to ignore the PCG cutter. PCG cutter was left without a reply, likely scared away by the Chinese destroyer.
The PH is just a poodle, pretending to be a rottweiler. Its bark doesn't even deserve an acknowledgement. Still, the PLAN did made sure to brandish some big sticks instead of talking.
All within strike range of PLARF and PLAAF
There is no air defense provided for those bases by US, so they are essentially defenseless. It's like all those complaints about Chinese bases in Cuba or whatever. If you can't defend those bases at all, there is no point deploying your forces there.
An interesting, persuasive and well argued opinion on the Vietnam's economic quandary that the U.S. under Trump has placed them into. The U.S. security thinking assume that Vietnam will follow along stupidly enacting the same actions and positions that the Philippines has taken quite aggressively under the current regime of Marcos Jr. which means that the U.S. doesn't appreciate the complicated history between China and Vietnam nor does it care to understand these existing dilemmas at all. Perhaps the U.S. thinking has been blinded by the fawning and sycophantic approach that the Philippines have taken along with its long standing dominant position in Asia-Pacific that it forgot to bother looking at the realities on the ground, hence the predictable approach with the same predictive applications of failed strategies/policies it has employed in that part of the world since the 1950's.