China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
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That Philippine piece on garbage stuck on 仁爱礁 is about to be towed away very soon
Thank you Marcos! Even after replacing your defense minister, you can't change what coming now. Just get ready to sign the SCS code of conduct.
Is this for real? If so this will be an interesting development, this will put the US in a difficult position whether they will recognize the towing of the scrap ship as a form of armed aggression against the Philippines (which will trigger the MDT) or not. If the US takes no action, it will strengthen the position of anti-US sentiments in the Philippines and support the notion that the US is not capable of safeguarding Philippine interests in the SCS.
I guess we will see what happens on June 15th.
First Japan-US-Philippines Security Meeting to Take Place in Tokyo on June 16 - Reports
Japan, U.S., Australia, Philippines eye defense chief talks in June
Next week will be spicy, especially the 15th, 16th.
If China wants to do a grey zone kind of move, it would actually be better to do it now than at any other time. America is over committed to Ukraine and simply not able to respond to a grey zone kind of move. Economy is not great. All this articles are coming out about America not ready to defend Taiwan and that Pentagon is frightened. Philippines still hasn't really done anything toward, so rolling back these agreements will be pretty easy.
What about the Filipino soldiers onboard that refuse to leave assuming it's true, how do we get them out? They'd probably start shooting at CCG instead of leaving peacefully
Taiwanese media thinks China will just stop all resupply to the ship but maybe Xi's recent directive of "要坚持底线思维和极限思维，准备经受风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验" suggest something bigger. Many on this forum consistently underestimate the resolve of the CPC to defend China's sovereignty, due to a historical bias when China was poor. I think a repeat/upgraded version of SCS 2016 is necessary to keep Taiwan/South Korea/rest of ASEAN in line, especially before signing the SCS code of conduct.
they had better learn how to swim then.
I don't feel quite good about this. What if the US decides to directly intervene, or if they managed to poke their lackeys in Manila into provoking Beijing into a fight over Renai Shoal?
Here are the locations of US CVNs and LHA/LHDs around one week ago.
There are 2 CSGs and 1 ESGs currently active in the WestPac. These three groups can make their way to the eastern side of the Philippines and/or the SCS region within days.
Then there's another 1 CSG and 1 ESG currently active near CONUS, both of which could arrive at the same region within 2-3 weeks.
Even if Washington DC has no intention to directly participate in any potential conflict between China and the Philippines arising from Renai Shoal, they could very well provide indirect support to the Filipinos (weapons, vehicle, ISR), plus launching massive PR campaigns against China worldwide by framing China in the same aggressor and monster lens as Russia.
That said, the Americans and/or Filipinos probably won't be firing shells or missiles at CCG ships and boats right away, but they could also resort to non-lethal/less-lethal tactics such as ramming, firing warning shots close to opposing ships or boats, or even small arms fire exchange. In case this happens, how likely would such confrontation get out of control?
IMHO, the PLA CMC better make sure that the PLAN, PLAAF and PLARF of the STC be on high alert and be ready for action 24/7 during and after the wreck removal process (i.e. when Renai Shoal is being made into a fully-fledged island). Elements of the ETC should also be ready to provide assistance and support to the STC in case things get serious/critical.
I would be happy to see this as I think we are at the point China needs to show it can get angry. I am not saying it will happen though. China had a very passive foreign policy between 2013-2022 period.
Ramming? I don’t think the Philippines or the US can out ram the PLAN militia or the Chinese coast guard forces lol…
The Philippines or the US Navy would have to fire first, but that would be bad PR wise for them and China can retaliate within reason. The Philippines Navy can’t win, even with US indirect support. And I don’t think the US wants to start WW3 with China by shooting first themselves.