China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Overbom]

I am skeptical. How will Philipine use US base as a leverage for negotiating with China? First it is an insult to supply geopolitical enemy of China in their plan of encirclement. Second there is nothing they can do to kick US out even if China makes a good counter offer.

Here is an equally absurd idea. How about Mexico be a forward supply base for China and Russia? That will surely 'strengthen Mexico's hand negotiating with US' right?

Its simple, you bring your neighbour's enemy to your country. Your neighbour want that enemy to go away. He makes concessions with you, you throw the enemy out of your country.

They can kick Americans out in the end but only after expending tremendous political capital, Philippines is not Japan (yet)

If you ask, why can't China emulate what the US can do to a neighbour hosting its enemy, its because China still doesn't have the same hard power as the US has

 

[TK3600]

Its simple, you bring your neighbour's enemy to your country. Your neighbour want that enemy to go away. He makes concessions with you, you throw the enemy out of your country.

They can kick Americans out in the end but only after expending tremendous political capital, Philippines is not Japan (yet)

If you ask, why can't China emulate what the US can do to a neighbour hosting its enemy, its because China still doesn't have the same hard power as the US has

If they can kick out US with sufficent benefit deal with China, then good for them. I am very skeptical in that regard. Not much they can do to kick out US. If not, they will be left in ruins once war starts. Of all things for you to doubt yes China has the sufficient hard power to make Philipine pay heavier cost than they can make China pay. In peace a strong economic cost, and in war even stronger military cost. Just like US can do the same to Mexico.

Philipine is going the way of Australia and unlike Australia they are much much weaker in their position.

 

[ansy1968]

Philipine is going the way of Australia and unlike Australia they are much much weaker in their position.

If we did that then the American will not give us the time of day.

 

[reservior dogs]

Oh, I think it would be terrible negotiation tactic to start off with offering ceding Scarborough Shoal to Philippines in return for ending VFA. The purpose of ending VFA is to make it harder for US military to spy on China during peace time. I don't see Philippines would allow bases to be used by US during war. That would bring catastrophe to Philippines. There would be no way that US could defend those bases.

So, I think to start off, you negotiate joint exploration and you work together to keep out Taiwan/Vietnam from the area. Once you have that and build trust with Philippines foreign policy elites, then you can work toward something more substantive.

ceding claim of any disputed reefs/islands would only make sense if during these next 10 or 15 years as part of a larger security arrangement where Philippines can grant them access to a couple of air bases. Being able to fly fuel tankers/MPAs out of Philippines would give them persistent cover over Philippine sea and they would just be able to frequently have military exercises between Taiwan and Guam. Imagine a 004 with 40 J-35s/15 J-15s/6 KJ-600s/many drones/Z18/20s, 4 055s, 6 054Bs, 4 095s, a few diesel subs and AUVs conducting large scale exercise in that area east of Taiwan, southeast of Ryukus and west of Guam + supported by H20s/H6K/J20/J16D/MPAs. That would send quite the message to everyone in the region. And you might be able to pressure Taiwan to sign up to some type of 1 country/2 system without ever firing a shot. Imo, having a base in Philippines would just allow them to accomplish their strategic goals sooner.

I do not see Philippines willing to sign up to something like this, so the more realistic hope is for China to agree to joint exploration and trust building which leads to ending VFA.

Given how uncertain the internal politics of the Philippines are, the Chinese needs to have stronger power before any negotiation can happen. maybe five or six operational CSGs.

 

[Overbom]

Given how uncertain the internal politics of the Philippines are, the Chinese needs to have stronger power before any negotiation can happen. maybe five or six operational CSGs.

You don't negotiate, you just order them to follow your terms. The other party can either agree or get bombed to smithereens with no one in the entire world daring to raise a single voice of resistance.

That's the extend of power that the US has on its neighboring countries. China still has a long long way to achieve the same degree of hard power that US has on its region

 

[supercat]

Cooperating with China will bring real benefits.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1600223341264007170

 

[bebops]

China needs loyalman drone, unmanned warship and unmanned submarine For example, each destroyer commands three unmanned warship or each submarines commands three unmanned submarines. There is no doubt in my mind China can conquer anything in its path. Normally an aircraft carrier group has 7-9 ships. If each manned warship commands three drone ships, that can bring the carrier group total to 21-27 ships. Unmanned machines are the future if a country wants to win a war.

 

[Biscuits]

I am skeptical. How will Philipine use US base as a leverage for negotiating with China? First it is an insult to supply geopolitical enemy of China in their plan of encirclement. Second there is nothing they can do to kick US out even if China makes a good counter offer.

Here is an equally absurd idea. How about Mexico be a forward supply base for China and Russia? That will surely 'strengthen Mexico's hand negotiating with US' right?

Depending on how capable the base it, it may be more of a liability then asset. Especially because its on Philippines soil. Such bases carry an inherent risk for USA, because if they want to use the base in anger, they must ask Philippines for approval. But such approval will almost certainly be declined because Philippines does not want to be a victim of Chinese strategic bombing just so USA can get their planes 30 minutes faster to a frontline that concerns Philippines nothing.

And when said request gets declined, that's a terrible morale setback because it will essentially mean a public bet against USA in the war.

Philippines can likely kick them out in peacetime, they're still somewhat free and they did this in the past as well.

 

[ansy1968]

Depending on how capable the base it, it may be more of a liability then asset. Especially because its on Philippines soil. Such bases carry an inherent risk for USA, because if they want to use the base in anger, they must ask Philippines for approval. But such approval will almost certainly be declined because Philippines does not want to be a victim of Chinese strategic bombing just so USA can get their planes 30 minutes faster to a frontline that concerns Philippines nothing.

And when said request gets declined, that's a terrible morale setback because it will essentially mean a public bet against USA in the war.

Philippines can likely kick them out in peacetime, they're still somewhat free and they did this in the past as well.

Bro are you a filipino? cause your analysis is spot on . We can undo the past BUT being associated with the bully it is very hard to disassociate as we know what the bully are capable of, we need friends a lot of friends, ASEAN gave us the courage BUT China gave us THE VOICE to dissent. That should be look at as a Historic context that had been ensured during Duterte Era. So we're hedging like my previous post who would have thought that an ardent American Vassal had the temerity to defy the them....lol So in a way a great win for China and in 2030, you may see us demanding a revocation of the Philippine US MDT as the Chinese maintain a Escalatory Dominance in the region. And our reasoning is very simple, you're not part of our neighborhood and your help is too steep to pay.

 

[pipaster]

Bro are you a filipino? cause your analysis is spot on . We can undo the past BUT being associated with the bully it is very hard to disassociate as we know what the bully are capable of, we need friends a lot of friends, ASEAN gave us the courage BUT China gave us THE VOICE to dissent. That should be look at as a Historic context that had been ensured during Duterte Era. So we're hedging like my previous post who would have thought that an ardent American Vassal had the temerity to defy the them....lol So in a way a great win for China and in 2030, you may see us demanding a revocation of the Philippine US MDT as the Chinese maintain a Escalatory Dominance in the region. And our reasoning is very simple, you're not part of our neighborhood and your help is too steep to pay.

I had a question for you, do the Philippines teach their kids about the US and Spanish colonization?

Because if they don't we'll know the situation has changed substantially when that begins to be emphasized.