China's SCS Strategy Thread

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Chinese hold the cards, They are waiting for Marcos decision regarding the extension of EDCA. He have to choose between a COC in SCS needed for Joint Oil exploration or a militarization of the region. The answer is verryyy verrryyy clear BUT the oligarch will have the final say NOT the ordinary Filipinos. :mad:


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Marcos pushes joint exploration of WPS

Marcos pushes joint exploration of WPS​


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December 2, 2022



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West Philippine Sea


(UPDATE) PRESIDENT Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. on Thursday said the Philippine government will find "other ways" to proceed with the joint exploration with China of the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) if government-to-government talks do not work out.
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the Kadiwa ng Pasko Caravan in Quezon City, Marcos said oil exploration is a "small thing" for China but something significant for the Philippines.



"We'll have to find a way kasi kailangan na natin eh (we really need it now). We already need, kung mahanap dyan kailangan na talaga ng Pilipinas (whatever resources we could find because the Philippines really need that now)," Marcos said.
The President said the constitutional problems delaying the joint exploration must be resolved.
"Kasi kini-claim ng China kanila 'yun, eh atin naman talaga iyan. So, sinasabi ng Pilipinas, basta't 'yung batas kailangan masundan 'yung sa Pinas (China is claiming the [South China Sea] as its property, but it's ours. For the Philippines' part, we have to follow the law)," he said.

"Ang sinasabi naman ng Chinese, hindi, amin iyan eh, kaya't kailangan masundan is Chinese. Kaya 'yun talaga ang roadblock doon (The Chinese are saying that they own that, and they want their own terms to be followed. That's the roadblock there)," he said.
Marcos' predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, had terminated joint-exploration discussions with Beijing.
The two countries signed the memorandum of understanding in 2018, but the Philippine government said the goal of developing the oil and gas resources was not achieved.
Last September, the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) said Manila and Beijing were into "initial and general discussions" but have not progressed into "working-level talks."


During their first bilateral meeting in Bangkok, Thailand, last month, Marcos and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed that the immediate conclusion of negotiations for the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea will help address the maritime dispute among the claimant-states.

Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea, a portion of which has been renamed by the Philippines as the West Philippine Sea.
In 2016, the Philippines scored a victory against China when the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands, declared Beijing's claim over nearly the South China Sea as illegal.
China has refused to acknowledge the ruling.

Marcos also said during an interview that the decades-old Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the United States is "continuously under negotiation and under evolution."
Noting that "things are changing," the President said that Malacañang has been on the receiving end of "many requests and proposals" from the US government on how to improve cooperation on security and defense, particularly those specified under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).
"So, all of that is under study now to see what is really feasible and what will be the most useful for the defense of Philippine territory," he said, noting that security and defense were among the issues he discussed with US Vice President Kamala Harris recently.

"Yes, we covered that and many more subjects. But essentially, on the security, 'yun tinitingnan natin 'yung kanilang pino-propose, 'yung mga joint exercises (we are looking at what they are proposing, the joint exercises), and EDCA, the use of our bases, all of these. We are in the middle of that," the President said.
During the meeting with Harris, Marcos reiterated that he does "not see the future of the Philippines without the United States."
Harris in turn reaffirmed her government's commitment to the Philippines, a "multifaceted" relationship "based on mutual commitment to the economic prosperity of the region and our respective nations."
Harris, the highest ranking American official to visit the country in recent years, also called out the harassment of Filipino security forces in the West Philippine Sea.
Any "armed attack on the Philippines, armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the South China Sea" would trigger the US government to "invoke US mutual defense commitments," she said.
National Security Adviser Secretary Clarita Carlos earlier stated that the government has created a panel that will study and review the MDT that was forged by the two nations in 1951.
The group, according to Carlos, is composed of officials from the National Security Council, the Department of National Defense and the DFA.
Sen. Sherwin Gatchalian has said that the Senate must also be a part of the review.
The Palace has yet to react to Gatchalian's statement
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Philippines is going to explore oil & gas without help of china too. Philippines has decided to become part of USA , probably to increase their economic ties with USA and it can be a trojan horse to weaken ASEAN members cooperation with china. Some ASEAN members are swing states too , economic cooperation doesn't boost ties , it's the decades old militry ties & defence ties which give more fruitful results without spending too much money. China need to do alot of military level cooperation and selling weapons to it's all friendly neighborhood countries, USA is spreading it's defence wings too close to china again.

Philippines will give alot of challenge if USA again builds base in philippines but it's going to happen.
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Then it will be militarized meaning nobody will get the oil, so who is the ultimate loser, us the Philippine. China will be happy cause the oil below span across all territories claimed by other claimants. What would you think Vietnam will do if we drill oil, they will react thinking we are siphoning their oil.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
America is playing a game here, they want to create taiwan war and then use Phillipines to provide ammunition to taiwan which is going to break relationship between china & philippines and whatever other countries that provide weapons to taiwan.

The goal of USA is break / destabilize relationship between china & ASEAN by fear mongering other countries that china might invade them aftter that war ,same script like Ukraine vs russia war.

China should do everything so that war doesn't occur and taiwan should stop rhetoric about independence.

Oil explore is just farce, infact Philippine wants USA military & security and other economic benefits and use them to become biggest mouth piece of USA in ASEAN.
Then we will remained poor and reliant to the US, who would want that, you see we can see the American intention from afar cause we had experience the golden American promises and it ain't golden in fact it taste like shit. We want to pursue our owned destiny and this exploratory talks is just talk, we listened and they listened, why would we sell our leverage to the American at what price? And from G20 and APEC we can see ASEAN had choose side and it's not the US.

For the American, they think the Philippines is a quick win let's see IF their confidence is justify. ;)
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
Then it will be militarized meaning nobody will get the oil, so who is the ultimate loser, us the Philippine. China will be happy cause the oil below span across all territories claimed by other claimants. What would you think Vietnam will do if we drill oil, they will react thinking we are siphoning their oil.
It seems to me that no matter what choice is being made it might be a win win for China. If the Philippines chooses for the code of conduct China wins the most and the Philippines will also win the most.

If the Philippines chooses for the US, China will win because it will most likely flip the other players against the Philippines and the US and the other players might look towards China for assistance in the economic and political space. Hell the Philippines might actually win the least out on the Asian century by siding with the US. We will see next year what will happen.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
It seems to me that no matter what choice is being made it might be a win win for China. If the Philippines chooses for the code of conduct China wins the most and the Philippines will also win the most.

If the Philippines chooses for the US, China will win because it will most likely flip the other players against the Philippines and the US and the other players might look towards China for assistance in the economic and political space. Hell the Philippines might actually win the least out on the Asian century by siding with the US. We will see next year what will happen.
Bro the American promises is a curse look what happen to us after liberation, Hegemony takes a lot of form and being reliant is the most destructive because we can't plan for the future, every President except for Marcos and Duterte need American approval regarding our foreign policy, just look at Aquino administration both the mother and son. We regress a lot cause both are unfit to run the country, we elect Duterte seeking change and we got it, if BBM wishes to reverse back then he will be in trouble, because his election victory rest on the premise that he will continue Duterte's Independent foreign policy.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
@Overlord you underestimate the Philippines a little too much and overestimate the wily, slimy, and scummy ways ability of the U.S.

Here is the former spokes person of Pres. Duterte speaking on this very topic and if you have the patience to listen to this fella explaining adroitly the positions, and perceptions from the competing camps you should be able to gain an understanding that Philippine leadership isn't as ignorant or doe eyed look of awe to American power or their supposed guarantees. The Filipinos will pursue what's for their best national interests and that interest no longer rely on American diktat in the Asia-Pacific including ASEAN. There's a new sheriff in town and that's China, thats an indisputable fact that can no longer be ignored when all Asean countries largest trading partner and customer is China.


So @ansy1968 is absolutely correct with his assessment as a person based in that country living in the capital itself, and is more intimately connected to the politics of that country compared to us and especially to you who are mostly getting your ideas and insights from such alarmist view vis-a-vis China's supposed weak position in Asia.




I am not exactly why you feel strongly about that particular idea but it's understandable why you have such concerns.
 

davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
Philippines and other members are important pillar of first Island of chain strategy of USA Navy. Well Philippine like usa or japan have always been puppet of USA.
they are subseviant to US and do whatever the master orders; pretty sick for the so-called soverign states
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
they are subseviant to US and do whatever the master orders; pretty sick for the so-called soverign states
When there is only one bully in the region you automatically follow, when your neighbor friend suddenly grow big and have the potential to challenge him you been encourage and when the bully suddenly notice you and wanted to be your friend you gain wisdom. That's what happening here in the region. The bully seems loss as others in the region have the courage to speak out, now they're trying a soft approach and it ain't working....lol We are sick of PAX Americana and everybody in the region want the US and Australia interlopers to leave and let us Asian deals with our problems.
 

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
Well, China holds the Scarborough Shoal card too.....
as long as the Philippines Government plays nice enough to China, the threat of turning Scarborough Shoal into a mighty Chinese fortress remains as it is, a threat only.
The moment the PG allows the US to expand its bases on Philipines soil detrimental to Chinese interests, I think China should convert the threat into reality within a very short time to counter the US move. Once that happens, the PG will be forced to chew and swallow its own bitter pills.
The Dragon would not bully smaller countries, but they should not think that they can poke the Dragon in the eyes at will without retributions.
The Eagle is very strong, but it lives very far away and its strength is on the decline.
The Dragon is not as strong yet, but it lives next door and is on an ascendancy path. In my view, ASEAN is being pragmatic and has made its preference.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Why USA wanted to have base in ASEAN?
They want ASEAN to get involve and used as cannon fodder. ;)
They got in philippines but for what reason they need it ? Just look at it. Philippines base is useful to monitor all activities of pla in South China sea islands and they will use it to give weapons to taiwan when something like war break out between taiwan & china because taiwan might declare independence in after few years. China couldn't stop or attack Philippine because it will declare America to attack on china and all western NATO countries are making their own indo Pacific plan so NATO will also come to give support to taiwan. USA want's these countries to drain resource of china and use them like Ukraine through MSM proganda by covering all death and banning all news from Chinese news channel & apps like tiktok or anything which goes against narrative of war reporting by west.
That's the American plan BUT we learn our lesson, look at WW2, IF the US have no bases in the Philippine the Japanese will not attack and occupied us.
The good thing would be for china is that nobody comes to interfere in taiwan issue, if USA & NATO comes to interfere by just giving weapons only which will be problamatic and I don't think china can blockade international water without facing heat in malaca straight or in other regions of indo Pacific. At that time there would be navies of all allied forces in indo Pacific to make navigation impossible for Chinese Navy and transportation.
The American want a repeat of WW2 their Ideal War , They think China is like Japan, if they squeeze it a little harder they will retaliate and do a Pearl Harbor. The US situation today is like that of the late 30's, the neocons need a war believing it's the only way for their RESET agenda to succeed. The onshoring and harvesting of its vassals is a way to re established the Arsenal of Democracy as their objective is to return to a unipolar world as leading hegemon.
 
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