China's SCS Strategy Thread


tphuang

Brigadier
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Reading the last 20 pages or so discussion, I am pretty sure the majority of forum members agree that having a neutral Philippines is of significant importance to an armed reunification with Taiwan. However, there were considerable concern, myself included, of ceding Scarborough Shoal to Philippines in return for Philippines ending VFA with the US.

An idea just popped into mind mind. What if China agrees to cede sovereignty of Scarborough Shoal to Philippines upon successful reunification (peaceful or otherwise) with Taiwan in return for Philippines' immediate termination of VFA. Meanwhile, China can throw in immediate join exploration for oil and sharing of profit thereof, and joint fishing rights etc.

Philippines will lose some of her strategic military significance to China once Taiwan is returned to the mainland. Also, by then, China will gain the use of Taiping Island (currently under Taiwan administration), thus offsetting the loss of Scarborough Shoal as a military base for China in SCS.

What is your opinion ?

Oh, I think it would be terrible negotiation tactic to start off with offering ceding Scarborough Shoal to Philippines in return for ending VFA. The purpose of ending VFA is to make it harder for US military to spy on China during peace time. I don't see Philippines would allow bases to be used by US during war. That would bring catastrophe to Philippines. There would be no way that US could defend those bases.

So, I think to start off, you negotiate joint exploration and you work together to keep out Taiwan/Vietnam from the area. Once you have that and build trust with Philippines foreign policy elites, then you can work toward something more substantive.

ceding claim of any disputed reefs/islands would only make sense if during these next 10 or 15 years as part of a larger security arrangement where Philippines can grant them access to a couple of air bases. Being able to fly fuel tankers/MPAs out of Philippines would give them persistent cover over Philippine sea and they would just be able to frequently have military exercises between Taiwan and Guam. Imagine a 004 with 40 J-35s/15 J-15s/6 KJ-600s/many drones/Z18/20s, 4 055s, 6 054Bs, 4 095s, a few diesel subs and AUVs conducting large scale exercise in that area east of Taiwan, southeast of Ryukus and west of Guam + supported by H20s/H6K/J20/J16D/MPAs. That would send quite the message to everyone in the region. And you might be able to pressure Taiwan to sign up to some type of 1 country/2 system without ever firing a shot. Imo, having a base in Philippines would just allow them to accomplish their strategic goals sooner.

I do not see Philippines willing to sign up to something like this, so the more realistic hope is for China to agree to joint exploration and trust building which leads to ending VFA.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Oh, I think it would be terrible negotiation tactic to start off with offering ceding Scarborough Shoal to Philippines in return for ending VFA. The purpose of ending VFA is to make it harder for US military to spy on China during peace time. I don't see Philippines would allow bases to be used by US during war. That would bring catastrophe to Philippines. There would be no way that US could defend those bases.

So, I think to start off, you negotiate joint exploration and you work together to keep out Taiwan/Vietnam from the area. Once you have that and build trust with Philippines foreign policy elites, then you can work toward something more substantive.

ceding claim of any disputed reefs/islands would only make sense if during these next 10 or 15 years as part of a larger security arrangement where Philippines can grant them access to a couple of air bases. Being able to fly fuel tankers/MPAs out of Philippines would give them persistent cover over Philippine sea and they would just be able to frequently have military exercises between Taiwan and Guam. Imagine a 004 with 40 J-35s/15 J-15s/6 KJ-600s/many drones/Z18/20s, 4 055s, 6 054Bs, 4 095s, a few diesel subs and AUVs conducting large scale exercise in that area east of Taiwan, southeast of Ryukus and west of Guam + supported by H20s/H6K/J20/J16D/MPAs. That would send quite the message to everyone in the region. And you might be able to pressure Taiwan to sign up to some type of 1 country/2 system without ever firing a shot. Imo, having a base in Philippines would just allow them to accomplish their strategic goals sooner.

I do not see Philippines willing to sign up to something like this, so the more realistic hope is for China to agree to joint exploration and trust building which leads to ending VFA.
How about a goal of joined custody for the Scarborough Shoal. The Chinese will build it up and both nations have rights to access it. Of course this would come much later when the Philippines offer access to the other ports. It will be a long negotiation process.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Reading the last 20 pages or so discussion, I am pretty sure the majority of forum members agree that having a neutral Philippines is of significant importance to an armed reunification with Taiwan. However, there were considerable concern, myself included, of ceding Scarborough Shoal to Philippines in return for Philippines ending VFA with the US.

An idea just popped into mind mind. What if China agrees to cede sovereignty of Scarborough Shoal to Philippines upon successful reunification (peaceful or otherwise) with Taiwan in return for Philippines' immediate termination of VFA. Meanwhile, China can throw in immediate join exploration for oil and sharing of profit thereof, and joint fishing rights etc.

Philippines will lose some of her strategic military significance to China once Taiwan is returned to the mainland. Also, by then, China will gain the use of Taiping Island (currently under Taiwan administration), thus offsetting the loss of Scarborough Shoal as a military base for China in SCS.

What is your opinion ?
@Rettam Stacf bro, regarding the first , it will never happen, both China and Taiwan have the same historical claim and China view its sovereignty very seriously. If you cede one inch of your territory then other powers and nation may see weakness and will question your claimed as there are many in SCS. JV is the answer, China had the tech to extract those oil and sharing it is a sign of magnanimity. Other members may laugh at my naivety BUT the Chinese bought their oil at commercial rate anyway so what the difference.

VFA and EDCA was created by executive agreement and therefore can be rescind using the same, what the Philippine should be working at is renegotiate the MDT.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member

How high, lets sing together "Ain't no Mountain High Enough"​

Marcos seeks 'higher level' for PH-China ties​



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July 1, 2022
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President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. speaks with Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan in a courtesy call following the inaugural ceremony held at the National Museum of Fine Arts on Thursday, June 30, 2022. OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
(UPDATE) PRESIDENT Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. has expressed intent to elevate the country's bilateral relations with
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to a "higher level" as the two countries agree to join hands "in coping with regional challenges."
Marcos made the commitment during his meeting with Chinese Vice President
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at the
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in
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on Thursday, June 30.
During the meeting, the President told Wang that China is "the most powerful partner of the
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," according to a statement released by China's state-run
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.
He said the Philippines' "good-neighborly friendship is in the fundamental interests of both peoples."
"The new Philippine government attaches utmost importance to the relations with China, and is willing to deepen its participation in the joint construction of the [
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], join hands with China in coping with regional challenges and elevate the bilateral ties to a higher level," Marcos said as quoted by Xinhua.


Wang, in turn, told Marcos that the Philippine leader and his family have made "great contributions" to enhancing China-Philippine friendship.
He expressed China's willingness to work with the Philippines under Marcos' leadership.

"The Chinese side has always given priority to the Philippines in its neighborhood diplomacy, and is ready to work with the new Philippine government in carrying on with their friendship, boosting mutual trust and deepening cooperation so as to usher in a new 'golden age' in bilateral ties," Wang said.
The two countries should dovetail their development strategies so as to foster new growth points of pragmatic cooperation in the new era, he added.


On the issue of the
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(West
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) dispute between the two countries, Wang pointed to the need for the parties to "properly resolve differences and jointly safeguard peace and tranquility" in the contested waters.
He said Manila and
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should uphold international equality and justice, and jointly promote peace and development in Asia, as well as the well-being of humanity.
Both sides should develop bilateral relations under the guidance of the two heads of state, who will steer the course of the development of the bilateral ties, according to Wang.
Manila and Beijing have long been locked in a row over areas of the South China Sea — almost all of which China insists it has exclusive rights to, rejecting a 2016 The Hague ruling that its historical claims were without basis.
Former president
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fostered warmer ties with the Philippines' more powerful neighbor by setting aside the ruling in exchange for promises of trade and investment, which critics say have not materialized.
Marcos, during a recent event of the Association for Philippines-China Understanding, said he would continue Duterte's "independent foreign policy."
"This is what we feel is best in the national interest and I feel it is to be advantageous not only to our friends in China but to all our friends around the world," he has stated.
Marcos said Philippine alliances with other countries would "keep the stability of our economic recovery" from the Covid -19 pandemic.
"That cooperation is, what I believe, will bring us forward to a bright future... We can only do it with our partners. And our strongest partner has always been, in that regard, our close neighbor and our good friend, the People's Republic of China," he added.

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2 hours ago — (UPDATE) PRESIDENT Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. has expressed intent to elevate the country's bilateral relations with China to a "higher ...
 

Bellum_Romanum

Colonel
Registered Member
On his speech which was delivered fairly well, Marcos Jr. is still somewhat constraints to compliment or even dare to acknowledge the presence of VP Wang Qishin (who's on the foreground picture of this youtube link) He's able to acknowledge the Australian delegation, although am not sure if the President was able to mention the husband of Kamala Harris being part of the U.S. delegation present for his inauguration. @ansy1968 am I making a mountain out of a molehill or was Pres.Marcos afraid to hear boos if he had mentioned China’s V.P. Wang Qishin. I would lie if I wasn't perturbed by this action.

 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
On his speech which was delivered fairly well, Marcos Jr. is still somewhat constraints to compliment or even dare to acknowledge the presence of VP Wang Qishin (who's on the foreground picture of this youtube link) He's able to acknowledge the Australian delegation, although am not sure if the President was able to mention the husband of Kamala Harris being part of the U.S. delegation present for his inauguration. @ansy1968 am I making a mountain out of a molehill or was Pres.Marcos afraid to hear boos if he had mentioned China’s V.P. Wang Qishin. I would lie if I wasn't perturbed by this action.

I think this pointed to the internal divides that exists in the Philippines regarding China. Marcos Jr. must try to offend as few people as he possibly can. This is not important. What is important are things that follow. There will be a few months where he work things out with the various parties, then we may see some agreements signed with China. That is where the rubber meets the road.

It is actually a huge step forward that a Chinese official is sitting by him while he gives an address alongside the U.S. representative. In my memory it never happened before, even when Duterte was president.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think this pointed to the internal divides that exists in the Philippines regarding China. Marcos Jr. must try to offend as few people as he possibly can. This is not important. What is important are things that follow. There will be a few months where he work things out with the various parties, then we may see some agreements signed with China. That is where the rubber meets the road.

It is actually a huge step forward that a Chinese official is sitting by him while he gives an address alongside the U.S. representative. In my memory it never happened before, even when Duterte was president.
@reservior dogs @Bellum_Romanum the Marcos brand always provoke controversy, either you hate them or love them. BBM is on a mission to clear his family name, the theme of his administration is unity and of one purpose so he is threading carefully. Bro the CURSE, the division within is the battle of narrative between the two families. The Aquinos and the Marcos and we're tired of that and are now turning a new page. So local politics do count, with the US gov't intervening in favor of the Aquinos it added an international favor.

Now all BBM should do is follow the footstep of Duterte and he is home free, the politics of the Yellows or the Aquino legacy (neo liberal policy) had turn PINK...lol and are being discarded, condemn to history by the electorate, we don't want to go back to their toxic policy and that brand is damaged beyond repair (with it the US). Plus there is a huge change in our political scene, the Duterte effect, the force that halted the curse of the 2 families in our society. With the daughter as VP and maybe the next president, we had really turn a page and the future looks bright.
 
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Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
I asked you how losing that 1 small island mattered and you can't give me an explanation

I'm not Bob Smith, but I can see some downsides to giving up even a tiny island. There's the immediate loss of the 3-mile territory around the island. Then the 12-mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). If the island is large enough for an airstrip, its fighter jets can dominate a circle hundreds of kilometers in diameter. If the island also has a submarine base, its effective radius of action can be thousands of kilometers. For all these reasons, it is unwise for China to give up ocean territory unnecessarily.
 

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
You can hardly imagine that the United States is still writing such absurd "novels" in 2022.
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This "novel" depicts the U.S. Navy assisting the Philippines in fighting against Chinese " insurgent" on the sea.
I don't fully understand the English vocabulary, but Americans seem to think of the PRC as a large illegal organization.

In the story, the Americans imagined that the Chinese would let the militia drive fishing boats to launch attacks. We have enough law enforcement ships. I don't understand why we do this.
"On the cruiser, Maliah personally helped produce the footage that was soon broadcast across the world, demonstrating the PRC’s aggression and the firm commitment of the U.S. to its allies and partners, bringing more members into the coalition."
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This story can be regarded as an extension of this plan.

The Americans still haven't given up their plan to "enforce the law" in the South China Sea.
I give them a suggestion: the U.S. Navy can directly let the fleet enter the Bohai Sea, and then send a special force to arrest Chinese leaders to the United States for trial.
Since Americans want to crack down on "insurgency", it's better to directly arrest China's largest "insurgency" leader.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
You can hardly imagine that the United States is still writing such absurd "novels" in 2022.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This "novel" depicts the U.S. Navy assisting the Philippines in fighting against Chinese " insurgent" on the sea.
I don't fully understand the English vocabulary, but Americans seem to think of the PRC as a large illegal organization.

In the story, the Americans imagined that the Chinese would let the militia drive fishing boats to launch attacks. We have enough law enforcement ships. I don't understand why we do this.
"On the cruiser, Maliah personally helped produce the footage that was soon broadcast across the world, demonstrating the PRC’s aggression and the firm commitment of the U.S. to its allies and partners, bringing more members into the coalition."
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This story can be regarded as an extension of this plan.

The Americans still haven't given up their plan to "enforce the law" in the South China Sea.
I give them a suggestion: the U.S. Navy can directly let the fleet enter the Bohai Sea, and then send a special force to arrest Chinese leaders to the United States for trial.
Since Americans want to crack down on "insurgency", it's better to directly arrest China's largest "insurgency" leader.
@zhangjim bro one thing that American forget is we adopt the "NIMBY" attitude from them. So whatever Copium and Hopium they smoke is sure of high quality...lol
 

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