China's SCS Strategy Thread


ansy1968

Colonel
Registered Member
@ansy1968 , I am not from ASEAN. But ASEAN always have a place in my heart. I travel frequently to ASEAN, including spending almost 10 years living and working in several ASEAN countries as an expat. Among them were Singapore and the Philippines. I wish both of them well and hope any superpower conflict in the S China Sea, which is getting more and more likely, will not involve them.
@Rettam Stacf bro 10 years then you are officially an ASEAN...lol joking aside I think there will be NO conflict in the region especially at SCS, China had technically won the war by constructing those artificial Island and also in Taiwan because of the Ukraine War. All these posturing is just talk trying the scare the Chinese and the ASEAN, instead the opposite happen, both side have a dialogue and guess what they found a common agenda to move things forward and identify the Collective West as the trouble maker.
 

badoc

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Marcos has said some more good things about relationship with China.

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They admit that Aquino years were an all time low in the relationship

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I think China really needs to watch out this kind of stuff. If they want to capitalize on friendly Filipino admins, then this kind of stuff is not helpful.

If I were them, I'd stop worrying about these economic gains and really consider geopolitical future here. A future non-friendly Filipino admin would presumably sign onto EDCA, which would be quite a disaster. A continued popular duterte/Marcos platform until 2034 would be great for China in the region.

With this recent Australian incident, they can reasonably show Filipino government that Australians are using their air base in a way that could trigger unintended war. Such actions are irresponsible and bad for ASEAN countries. And persuade understanding Filipino government to take away rights of RAAF from flying out of Philippines. Such an example would presumably also be a warning sign to US military to not get too aggressive and cause conflict in the region.
I wish there is an island anywhere in the world for me to claim in 1956.

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While China, Japan, the Philippines, and many other nations have been in the South China Sea for many centuries, this article discusses Tomás Cloma Sr.'s claim to Freedomland for the Philippines.

On July 6, 1956, Cloma declared to the world his claim and establishment of a separate government with its capital on Flat Island (also known as Patag Island).
.

It is notable that if Pinoys are great seafarers, we would see them settled in East Asia instead of the other way round.
The Chinese with their big ships, have sailed the seas and settled in all parts of South East Asia, bringing along their culture and expertise.
Claiming only empty islands, but trading with inhabitants instead of colonizing and enslaving the natives.
Negotiations and compromise is the only solution.
.
 

ansy1968

Colonel
Registered Member
I wish there is an island anywhere in the world for me to claim in 1956.

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While China, Japan, the Philippines, and many other nations have been in the South China Sea for many centuries, this article discusses Tomás Cloma Sr.'s claim to Freedomland for the Philippines.

On July 6, 1956, Cloma declared to the world his claim and establishment of a separate government with its capital on Flat Island (also known as Patag Island).
.

It is notable that if Pinoys are great seafarers, we would see them settled in East Asia instead of the other way round.
The Chinese with their big ships, have sailed the seas and settled in all parts of South East Asia, bringing along their culture and expertise.
Claiming only empty islands, but trading with inhabitants instead of colonizing and enslaving the natives.
Negotiations and compromise is the only solution.
.
@badoc bro I feel for you...lol for me nobody in the region acknowledge our claim, so it's a land grab the problem can anyone sustain it. To legitimized our claim we need to settle people in and fortify the Island, that cost a lot and we lost an island to the Vietnamese because of loneliness....lol

1975 – Capture by South Vietnam[
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]​

Belligerents
Southwest Cay incident
Date1975
LocationSouthwest Cay
ResultSouth Vietnamese Capture of Southwest Cay
23px-Flag_of_the_Philippines.svg.png
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23px-Flag_of_South_Vietnam.svg.png
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In 1975, a party was held for the Filipino commanding officer at
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. Filipino forces guarding the Southwest Cay attended the party and upon their return, found that the
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, who were then allies, had occupied the island in their absence.[
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]

Southwest Cay is near the northern edge of the
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in the
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. It is just northwest of
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in the
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group, which also contains the Filipino-occupied
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(Parola), the South Vietnamese-occupied South Reef, and the unoccupied North Reef. Southwest Cay and Northeast Cay are just 1.75 miles (2.82 km) apart, and each island is visible from the other.

The incident took place when all the Filipino soldiers guarding Southwest Cay (Pugad) left to attend to the birthday party of their commanding officer who was based on Northeast Cay (Parola). A storm that day is also believed to have influenced the soldiers to regroup temporarily on Parola. A report also came out saying that South Vietnamese officials managed to send prostitutes to the birthday party to lure the Filipino soldiers guarding Pugad. It was said to be a "present" to the Filipino commander for his birthday, and as a move of South Vietnamese forces to befriend all Filipino soldiers guarding the Spratlys. Filipino soldiers did not expect that South Vietnam would resort to foul play since both the Philippines and South Vietnam, together with the United States, were allies in the
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. This tactic is believed to be the reason why South Vietnamese forces knew that the Filipino soldiers left the island, an action that is usually kept confidential.[
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]

After the party and after the weather cleared out, the returning soldiers were surprised that a company of South Vietnamese soldiers were already on the island. The South Vietnamese flag replaced the Filipino flag flying on the pole erected by Filipino soldiers. The Filipino soldiers returned to Parola immediately for fear that Parola would be the next target. After higher-ups of the Philippines were informed about the situation, they instructed the troops based in Parola and Pagasa (
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) to stay on red alert status. For the following mornings, the only thing the Filipino soldiers could do on Parola was to "curse" while South Vietnamese soldiers on Pugad sang their national anthem.
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officials, who did not want to compromise the alliance while the Vietnam War was still being fought, decided to remain silent.[
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]
 

tphuang

Brigadier
VIP Professional
Registered Member
I don't know what they need to do exactly but if they can get Philippines to rescind vfa with America, then they should find a way to do it. It seems to me the main crust of the issue here are fishing rights and drilling rights. Get it figured out. Invest in phillipines. It can't be that difficult to outspend America here. Again, how is Australia allowed to operate out of Philippines? Even if it's unarmed, that's still a military aircraft. What happened recently shouldn't be acceptable.

China doesn't need more scs bases. Expanding the islands they have is sufficient and they can always expand more. It doesn't affect phillipines at all if they make the islands slightly larger. The constant western complaints get drawn out pretty quickly.
 

ansy1968

Colonel
Registered Member
I don't know what they need to do exactly but if they can get Philippines to rescind vfa with America, then they should find a way to do it. It seems to me the main crust of the issue here are fishing rights and drilling rights.
Correct, Sir the Arbitration is a Pyrrhic Victory, we won the Kangaroo case BUT instead of owning the Scarborough shoal as our traditional fishing ground we have to share with the other claimants and the worst part we have to pay the cost $30 millions for the attorney fee alone with the rest kept secret. From my estimate a total of $60 million were spent, to much for a 3rd world country for a tissue paper. Now regarding the drilling rights the reason for this China ruckus, An oligarch in the name of Manny Pangilinan is the instigator, he plan to explore oil in the Reed Bank BUT was warned before being confronted by the Chinese, it set off events that we are having today. Such an oligarch holds the rein of power cause our president is beholden to him, coming from the same elite school the Ateneo University and he profited big time using gov't resources as his own. He is the one who funded the Anti China propaganda here and the three gentlemen Del Rosario his former employee , Cuisia the AMBOY and Carpio acted as his crusaders. Now he change his color as his company PXP Energy Corp is planning a JV with CNOOC. So it's a way of gaining influence by Co-opting the oligarchs BUT will China do it? will she follow the American method at the expense of the majority?

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Feb 27, 2012 — Reed Bank, claimed by both China and the Philippines, is just one of several possible flashpoints in the South China Sea that could force ...


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Jul 10, 2021 — Businessman Manny V. Pangilinan, who leads the Service Contract (SC) 72 ... National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) as technical partner, ...

Get it figured out. Invest in phillipines. It can't be that difficult to outspend America here. Again, how is Australia allowed to operate out of Philippines? Even if it's unarmed, that's still a military aircraft. What happened recently shouldn't be acceptable.
Sir the political dynamics is changing, RCEP is the first step and more interaction is needed. The Ukraine War open up a lot of rethinking among Filipinos that the Collective West promises is full of horse shit, we should depend on ourselves and the need to talk bilaterally. The American want to internationalized the problem at our expense, instead of winning we lost more than we bargained for, so a painful lesson learned. And regarding Australia we lack the means to track the aircraft as most of them enter and leave our territory uncontested. And even we have it wasn't reported to our military chain of command cause it's embarrassing and Filipinos should ask question why our territory is being violated by the so called allies. Well it doesn't fit their narrative of an aggressive China IF the Collective West didn't respect our sovereignty.
China doesn't need more scs bases. Expanding the islands they have is sufficient and they can always expand more. It doesn't affect phillipines at all if they make the islands slightly larger. The constant western complaints get drawn out pretty quickly.
Sir IF they keep on repeating the China threat and nothing comes out of it who are they fooling? Like I said the Ukraine War opens up a can of worms for the Collective West and the hypocrisy is so evident that they expect us to believed them.
 

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't know what they need to do exactly but if they can get Philippines to rescind vfa with America, then they should find a way to do it. It seems to me the main crust of the issue here are fishing rights and drilling rights. Get it figured out. Invest in phillipines. It can't be that difficult to outspend America here. Again, how is Australia allowed to operate out of Philippines? Even if it's unarmed, that's still a military aircraft. What happened recently shouldn't be acceptable.

China doesn't need more scs bases. Expanding the islands they have is sufficient and they can always expand more. It doesn't affect phillipines at all if they make the islands slightly larger. The constant western complaints get drawn out pretty quickly.

For the purpose of securing maritime traffic in SCS from external interference and blockade, I agree with you that China doesn't need more SCS bases if you include Dongsha (Prata) Island and Taiping Island which China has to reclaim from Taiwan administration.

Both of them are strategically located for China's security, with the Dongsha guarding the Southern entrance of the Taiwan Strait, and Taiping right smack in the center of the Southern half of SCS.
 

ansy1968

Colonel
Registered Member
You may interpret it whatever you want and make you own conclusion, I make mine, Duterte want to give Marcos a clean slate to formulate his China Policy, any agreement he reached is his for the taking. As far as he goes, he had done his part to normalized the relationship. China should finalized this agreement as a parting gift to Duterte BUT the political situation is not right, by terminating, it allowed Marcos a free hand to implement his policy.

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11 hours ago — President Rodrigo Duterte has ordered the complete termination of the Philippines-China joint oil and gas exploration in the West Philippine ...
 

Jono

Junior Member
Registered Member
"President Rodrigo Duterte ordered the complete termination of the Philippines-China joint oil and gas exploration in the West Philippine Sea."
If there were only talks and negotiations so far then it is OK for the PH to withdraw unilaterally.
but if an agreement has been reached, then it is problematic for the PH to terminate like that, at least not perceived as an act of good faith.
my fear is that Beijing may view future treaties and agreements with the PH not worth the paper it's written on.
 

ansy1968

Colonel
Registered Member
"President Rodrigo Duterte ordered the complete termination of the Philippines-China joint oil and gas exploration in the West Philippine Sea."
If there were only talks and negotiations so far then it is OK for the PH to withdraw unilaterally.
but if an agreement has been reached, then it is problematic for the PH to terminate like that, at least not perceived as an act of good faith.
my fear is that Beijing may view future treaties and agreements with the PH not worth the paper it's written on.
@Jono bro its a MOA, a Treaty need a legislative concurrence and from the looks of thing it's the reason why the deal didn't materialized because of politics and of American influence, Remember my post about an Oligarch in the name of Manny Pangilinan, well the Chinese rejected his overtures. Now with BBM majority victory, Duterte handed the baton to him with his huge plurality mandate so he can take it forward. It's a good ploy with oil crisis manifesting, Maybe Marcos can bring the bacon home without any local opposition.
 

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