China's SCS Strategy Thread


ansy1968

Colonel
Registered Member
It would be controversial if Imee Marcos was to be chosen as the Philippines next Foreign Affairs Secretary but from what I can observe she has the qualities, personal charm, intellectual and historical understanding that are needed to be an effective role carrying out the newly elected President's Foreign policy vision and independence.

@ansy1968 What do you think? Who's your country's next FAS
@Bellum_Romanum bro we think the same, I for one like her to take that position, she can disarmed you with her wits. There are 3 possible candidates, one is to retain Locsin as FM second is Roberto Tiglao and third is his cousin current ambassador to the US Manuel Romualdez. For me Locsin is the best choice as seen with his performance, he is a nationalist neither pro US or Pro China. Tiglao is obviously a nationalist and anti US, his selection will shake the US Philippine relationship, while his cousin Romualdez for me is too soft to handle the current geopolitical tension in the region because of his Pro US tendency having establish personal relationship within the beltway of US political establishment.
 

BlackWindMnt

Junior Member
Registered Member
@Bellum_Romanum bro we think the same, I for one like her to take that position, she can disarmed you with her wits. There are 3 possible candidates, one is to retain Locsin as FM second is Roberto Tiglao and third is his cousin current ambassador to the US Manuel Romualdez. For me Locsin is the best choice as seen with his performance, he is a nationalist neither pro US or Pro China. Tiglao is obviously a nationalist and anti US, his selection will shake the US Philippine relationship, while his cousin Romualdez for me is too soft to handle the current geopolitical tension in the region because of his Pro US tendency having establish personal relationship within the beltway of US political establishment.
Yeah Locsin had a good run under Duterte would make sense to keep him on this post. He also has given some interesting talks at US think tanks in the past where he pretty much tells that US backstabbed the Philippines regarding south china sea in diplomatic talk.

Still he seems to fall more on the pro western side or at least his social web on twitter seems to be the pro US/western types.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Major
Registered Member
@Bellum_Romanum bro we think the same, I for one like her to take that position, she can disarmed you with her wits. There are 3 possible candidates, one is to retain Locsin as FM second is Roberto Tiglao and third is his cousin current ambassador to the US Manuel Romualdez. For me Locsin is the best choice as seen with his performance, he is a nationalist neither pro US or Pro China. Tiglao is obviously a nationalist and anti US, his selection will shake the US Philippine relationship, while his cousin Romualdez for me is too soft to handle the current geopolitical tension in the region because of his Pro US tendency having establish personal relationship within the beltway of US political establishment.
If that's the case, Marcos would have no choice but to select Romualdez to appease the Americans because the selection of Carlos with her nuanced (cue not pro-America synconphant) understanding of National security and the importance of China is going to be seen as anti-America from their perspective. And at the end of the day, the American security influence is still very strong and influential in your country and this is just a fact.
 

ansy1968

Colonel
Registered Member
@Bellum_Romanum @BlackWindMnt bro for me Romualdez is a long shot, BBM foreign policy will follow that of Duterte so I think he will be retain as an Ambassador to the US to smooth out the relationship, the Americans should accept that they aren't the big dog in the region, yes they are important BUT their policy need to change, offering security ain't gonna bite and for god sake its smack of imperialism written all over. At least the Chinese offer is something new and different. So for continuity sake Locsin is the best man for the job, he can say it straight to the American and the Chinese his opinion sometime forcefully and both country respect him for that and his honesty.
 

tphuang

Brigadier
VIP Professional
Registered Member
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Marcos has said some more good things about relationship with China.

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They admit that Aquino years were an all time low in the relationship

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I think China really needs to watch out this kind of stuff. If they want to capitalize on friendly Filipino admins, then this kind of stuff is not helpful.

If I were them, I'd stop worrying about these economic gains and really consider geopolitical future here. A future non-friendly Filipino admin would presumably sign onto EDCA, which would be quite a disaster. A continued popular duterte/Marcos platform until 2034 would be great for China in the region.

With this recent Australian incident, they can reasonably show Filipino government that Australians are using their air base in a way that could trigger unintended war. Such actions are irresponsible and bad for ASEAN countries. And persuade understanding Filipino government to take away rights of RAAF from flying out of Philippines. Such an example would presumably also be a warning sign to US military to not get too aggressive and cause conflict in the region.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Captain
Registered Member
A future non-friendly Filipino admin would presumably sign onto EDCA, which would be quite a disaster.
How would that be a disaster? The Philippines is already a US treaty ally, that's already baked in the cake. Whether or not some US troops are stationed there at present is immaterial. If a war comes then they're just more targets pre-positioned for PLARF strikes, if not then they don't matter.

China should only let up the pressure on SCS claimants in exchange for real concessions like abrogating mutual defense treaties. China should never get into the business of making real concessions for feel-goods.
A continued popular duterte/Marcos platform until 2034 would be great for China in the region.
What would be great for China in the region is building up enough military strength to expel the US from it.
 

ansy1968

Colonel
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Marcos has said some more good things about relationship with China.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
They admit that Aquino years were an all time low in the relationship

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
I think China really needs to watch out this kind of stuff. If they want to capitalize on friendly Filipino admins, then this kind of stuff is not helpful.
@tphuang Sir IF you are following the news, it had become a pattern and it's boring, IF you keep repeating the same message, the hysteria that the US wanted to convey have been receiving a lot of cynicism.
If I were them, I'd stop worrying about these economic gains and really consider geopolitical future here. A future non-friendly Filipino admin would presumably sign onto EDCA, which would be quite a disaster. A continued popular duterte/Marcos platform until 2034 would be great for China in the region.
Sir Nobody want to go back to Noynoy Aquino stupid policy and EDCA is fully signed on April 28, 2014 and ratified with SC concurrence, So your concern had already happen.
With this recent Australian incident, they can reasonably show Filipino government that Australians are using their air base in a way that could trigger unintended war. Such actions are irresponsible and bad for ASEAN countries. And persuade understanding Filipino government to take away rights of RAAF from flying out of Philippines. Such an example would presumably also be a warning sign to US military to not get too aggressive and cause conflict in the region.
Sir China understand the political dynamics here, Refueling of unarmed aircraft is okay BUT not of offensive weapons and we have a defense treaty obligation with the US. It takes time BUT the important thing is that we are voicing our concern to our Western partners that we view our relationship with China differently.
 

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
@tphuang Sir IF you are following the news, it had become a pattern and it's boring, IF you keep repeating the same message, the hysteria that the US wanted to convey have been receiving a lot of cynicism.

Sir Nobody want to go back to Noynoy Aquino stupid policy and EDCA is fully signed on April 28, 2014 and ratified with SC concurrence, So your concern had already happen.

Sir China understand the political dynamics here, Refueling of unarmed aircraft is okay BUT not of offensive weapons and we have a defense treaty obligation with the US. It takes time BUT the important thing is that we are voicing our concern to our Western partners that we view our relationship with China differently.

I believe the major concern China has in her relation to the Philippines is consistency. China is not yet convinced any friendship and partnership can last. But the consecutive presidency of Duterte and Marcos may convince China that the Philippines can have strategic independence and can sustain foreign policy continuity from one administration to another.

But the presence of foreign troops/bases in the Philippines will always be a hurdle to resolving island disputes in S China Sea. For her own security reason, China will likely not willing to yield much to Philippines to resolve the dispute as long as such condition persists.

By the way, P-8 is not considered as an offensive weapon. But it sure can trigger an unintended war.
 

ansy1968

Colonel
Registered Member
I believe the major concern China has in her relation to the Philippines is consistency. China is not yet convinced any friendship and partnership can last. But the consecutive presidency of Duterte and Marcos may convince China that the Philippines can have strategic independence and can sustain foreign policy continuity from one administration to another.
@Rettam Stacf bro China is used to by now, in the cold war we hosted about 12 US bases and auxiliary with nuclear weapons, Now at least none so far and we are not stupid to allow such dangerous weapon to be deployed here, we have a ready excuse our constitution forbade it. EDCA is a pre-deployment of equipment BUT without the VFA who will operate it. The American think they are clever by doing this two agreement separately as they has circumvent our constitution. BUT they didn't gauge the sentiment of the population and didn't expect Duterte will win.
But the presence of foreign troops/bases in the Philippines will always be a hurdle to resolving island disputes in S China Sea. For her own security reason, China will likely not willing to yield much to Philippines to resolve the dispute as long as such condition persists.
Bro a victory of sort for China, VFA can be rescind by a Presidential executive power as proven by Duterte action, so the American presence is compromise upon the whims and will of our elected officials. In other words we can play both side and the Americans hated it cause they have to outspend the Chinese and talk diplomacy with us instead of outright obedience. A reminder to the Americans $15 million can't buy you a dinner meeting with us anymore...lol
By the way, P-8 is not considered as an offensive weapon. But it sure can trigger an unintended war.
Bro so you see a pattern, every time there is a coziness of relationship between us and the Chinese this report always pop up. It's getting old and boring, they keep beating a dead horse and WAP should take action to protect animal rights...lol
 
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Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
Bro so you see a pattern, every time there is a coziness of relationship between us and the Chinese this report always pop up. It's getting old and boring, they keep beating a dead horse and WAP should take action to protect animal rights...lol

@ansy1968 , I am not from ASEAN. But ASEAN always have a place in my heart. I travel frequently to ASEAN, including spending almost 10 years living and working in several ASEAN countries as an expat. Among them were Singapore and the Philippines. I wish both of them well and hope any superpower conflict in the S China Sea, which is getting more and more likely, will not involve them.
 

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