China's SCS Strategy Thread


Bellum_Romanum

Major
Registered Member
There's a strong chatter in the Philippines that this person, a certain retired Political Science and International Relations Professor from the University of the Philippines is being strongly considered by the incoming Bong Bong Marcos Jr. Administration as it's new Department of Foreign Affairs Secretary (DFA) I have serious reservations about her becoming the new head of DFA due to her age being 75 years old. But nonetheless, I tried digging something up about this Professor to get a glimpse of her intellectual insights on foreign policy issues, wether she understands issues from a grand strategic mindset mindful of great power politics that's being revived. To my pleasant surprise she seemed a balanced appraisal of geopolitics and interests and isn't a rabid anti-China or anti-west. Just simply pragmatic.

Here's is one of the interview where I think one can get a glimpse of her world views and understanding of global politics and fault lines.


Supporting article from an opinion piece written by a Filipino intellectual at Global times.

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ansy1968

Colonel
Registered Member
There's a strong chatter in the Philippines that this person, a certain retired Political Science and International Relations Professor from the University of the Philippines is being strongly considered by the incoming Bong Bong Marcos Jr. Administration as it's new Department of Foreign Affairs Secretary (DFA) I have serious reservations about her becoming the new head of DFA due to her age being 75 years old. But nonetheless, I tried digging something up about this Professor to get a glimpse of her intellectual insights on foreign policy issues, wether she understands issues from a grand strategic mindset mindful of great power politics that's being revived. To my pleasant surprise she seemed a balanced appraisal of geopolitics and interests and isn't a rabid anti-China or anti-west. Just simply pragmatic.

Here's is one of the interview where I think one can get a glimpse of her world views and understanding of global politics and fault lines.


Supporting article from an opinion piece written by a Filipino intellectual at Global times.

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@Bellum_Romanum bro the author is a grandson of the former Senator and VP Salvador Laurel, who Cory Aquino sidelined after he tell her and her adviser about their incompetence. The first victim of cancel politics after EDSA REVOLUTION and one of the more rationale thinker at that time. He is her husband confidant and adviser during his imprisonment BUT all of these are for naught, as Cory is very vindictive, who can blame her after losing a husband in such a violent manner. The opportunist and the returning oligarch see an opening and seizes the moment with the help of the US who kept hostage the Marcos family so that they can influence the new gov't.

So it come to full circle for the Marcos family and the son mission is to restore his father legacy, so expect him to do good, What about the US, well let see who Marcos appoint as Defense Secretary as the previous one is a known AMBOY having serve as Defense attache in Washington DC, Duterte need him to dissuade any coup or misadventure from the American as he learn the ropes to govern Nationally while he set his own policy of detachment from America. And here with the US distracted from her Pivot to Asia as the Ukraine Crisis linger on, most of us here in ASEAN are quietly distancing from the Collective West and are stating their neutrality. We reject the security aspect offered and demand economic and development instead. Will the American heed our demand , of course NOT, they are use to dictate to us her policy, either you take it or we cancel you....lol Now we have a new benefactor and the Collective West can't compete, and IF they ban any Chinese investment in their region, here we welcome them with open arms.
 

Godzilla

Junior Member
Registered Member
Here is the thing. I see SCS islands as something that maybe Filipino military and elites care about, but the regular people don't. Why would they when it doesn't have anything to do with your daily life. And I think that American natsec types now believe in their own bs that everyone in ASEAN hates China because of they expanded a few islands that nobody cares about and cannot understand why Filipino government won't sign EDCA.

I don't want Chinese government of the same issue of having an overly optimistic view of its influence in Philippines and that not actually being the reality on the ground. I see ASEAN as a hugely important region for China going forward. Going forward, how can China support Philippines in a way that will draw it closer?

If it offers a lot of second hand J-10As, 056s and armored vehicles for really cheap, would that bring military closer to China?

How can China get Philippines to rely on it for military support rather than US?

Are their local markets that China can open up that would help Philippines?

What kind of industries/JVs can Chinese companies invest in Philippines to help local economy?


That's also what I want to get to. What would be acceptable solution to Filipinos in terms of Spratlys?
I think it would be a good idea if CNOOC does a JV with a Filipino oil firm and build a LNG terminal on Subic bay ;)
Split the work between CNOOC's own yards and the local yards and maybe get Sinopec in to develop a few downstream O&G plants there. Throw in a few fish farms and Eco tourism resorts to help the smaller end of town, as well as set up a few technical schools to train up the locals. Kind of make it a little hub to utilize the local Filipinos to service other Chinese O&G facilities in the area and make it a hub for the Chinese expats to be based out of.
This would help massively the local economy, while keeping an eye on any potential military activities in the area.
Do something similar down in Palawan & Mindoro, then most of the complaints would be from out of towners while the locals keeps quiet and get rich.
 

ansy1968

Colonel
Registered Member
I think it would be a good idea if CNOOC does a JV with a Filipino oil firm and build a LNG terminal on Subic bay ;)
Split the work between CNOOC's own yards and the local yards and maybe get Sinopec in to develop a few downstream O&G plants there.
@Godzilla bro there are with PXP a subsidiary of Metro Pacific Corp owned by Manny Pangilinan. Subic is a NO GO cause the American warship will dock and replenish there. I think there are 2 options available one is the Batangas port where Petron already operates an oil refinery plus the necessary logistic with construction of Batangas to Calamba railway finance by the Chinese. Another is Puerto Princesa with proximity and also with Malampaya oil field nearby with its existing infrastructure.
Throw in a few fish farms and Eco tourism resorts to help the smaller end of town, as well as set up a few technical schools to train up the locals. Kind of make it a little hub to utilize the local Filipinos to service other Chinese O&G facilities in the area and make it a hub for the Chinese expats to be based out of.
This would help massively the local economy, while keeping an eye on any potential military activities in the area.
Do something similar down in Palawan & Mindoro, then most of the complaints would be from out of towners while the locals keeps quiet and get rich.
Here it dovetail with BBM campaign slogan of food security and China can help immensely. Not with $15 millions to be given piecemeal by the so called Superpower BUT actual tangible aid that will be long lasting....lol

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Mar 8, 2022 — Duterte in 2020 lifted the suspension of oil exploration in the West Philippine Sea, paving the way for the resumption of drilling activities in ...
Missing: approvejv

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Dec 6, 2021 — At the forum “Halalan 2021 Para sa Agrikultura” organized by the Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc., Marcos underscored the gains ...


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Mar 16, 2022 — MANILA – In what could be one of his most comprehensive platforms of governance yet, presidential aspirant Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.
 

Godzilla

Junior Member
Registered Member
@Godzilla bro there are with PXP a subsidiary of Metro Pacific Corp owned by Manny Pangilinan. Subic is a NO GO cause the American warship will dock and replenish there. I think there are 2 options available one is the Batangas port where Petron already operates an oil refinery plus the necessary logistic with construction of Batangas to Calamba railway finance by the Chinese. Another is Puerto Princesa with proximity and also with Malampaya oil field nearby with its existing infrastructure.

Here it dovetail with BBM campaign slogan of food security and China can help immensely. Not with $15 millions to be given piecemeal by the so called Superpower BUT actual tangible aid that will be long lasting....lol
Hehe, yeah, hence the exact reason why I suggest planting it there! Throw a big enough carrot and let them decide. If we could own a port in Darwin, right next to where the US marines are based, don't see why it wouldn't be possible anywhere else in the world if the economic returns to the locals are good enough. End of the day, the facilities are neutral/civilian enough and are wealth and job creating assets for Philippines, while the Americans can still dock and replenish there, it'll get a little weird when the marines compete with the Chinese for the umm (You get what I mean). The tourism/local shop/bar owners won't be complaining about it to be sure. It'll keep the Americans honest knowing there are eyes on them everywhere there too, making it a good intelligence gold mine if they don't change their habits.
 

ansy1968

Colonel
Registered Member
Hehe, yeah, hence the exact reason why I suggest planting it there! Throw a big enough carrot and let them decide. If we could own a port in Darwin, right next to where the US marines are based, don't see why it wouldn't be possible anywhere else in the world if the economic returns to the locals are good enough. End of the day, the facilities are neutral/civilian enough and are wealth and job creating assets for Philippines, while the Americans can still dock and replenish there, it'll get a little weird when the marines compete with the Chinese for the umm (You get what I mean). The tourism/local shop/bar owners won't be complaining about it to be sure. It'll keep the Americans honest knowing there are eyes on them everywhere there too, making it a good intelligence gold mine if they don't change their habits.
@Godzilla hahaha yup I know what you mean, the Chinese are known high tipper and usually treat their women better, heck I cook for my wife and my past Filipina girl friend, it's one of our fine attributes....lol
 

Godzilla

Junior Member
Registered Member
@Godzilla hahaha yup I know what you mean, the Chinese are known high tipper and usually treat their women better, heck I cook for my wife and my past Filipina girl friend, it's one of our fine attributes....lol
Hehe, yup!
But the key strategy behind these things is to allow the extension of Chinese soft power into South East Asia. You can't make people that hate you like you, and its not worth the effort. But those are only a minority of the people, as most only care about the next meal, or next holiday if they are wealthier, and have their views shaped by the media in their country. Having these kind of businesses etc working there not only inserts a number of high level individuals that display wealth and power and project the country's image, but also quite a number of working class individuals that will intermingle with the locals. Having a Wong and a Alforon working on a the plant down the road together and having a drink at the local bar couple days a week does wonders to what the locals think of you. Kind of like replacing the role of the Western expats in a sense as a first step, but laying the thoughts to the locals that they are the equals to anyone else that comes to their backyard if they work hard enough and develop their country and loose that master/slave thought process. I feel this is kind of what we did in Africa, and that is why we were successful working with the Africans. Having friendly, wealthy countries around China can only benefit her in the long term, and because of her size, she doesn't really need to worry about any of the neighbors growing too big to threaten her hehe.
 

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