China's SCS Strategy Thread


Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Just a thought. Do you base the whole post on the above? In case of national emergency and for survival, you base an entire country on goodwill from Maynmar? What if China asks, and Maynmar says no? How can you guarantee that Maynmar will say yes? What if the US comes and offers Maynmar 10 bln in cash to decline?

What then?

What will you do? What if Maynmar also accepts US troops for protection?

As you can see there are many what if questions. I dont think this is a logical proposition, putting an entire country's (economic) survival to the goodwill of another (unstable) country.

I am not close-minded, instead I am open to hearing ideas about how China can avoid a situation where it has to ask someone in order to save itself from a potential blockade.
There is precedent in WWII German ask the Swiss for safe passage thru Switzerland either you relent or you got invaded The swiss just have no choice It is not goodwill. It is an offer you just can't refuse the offer!

China has alot of lever in case of Myanmar basically the northern Myanmar is defacto under China control they use renminbi as legal tender , The Shan army is train and equipped by ex PLA soldier , most of the population are Han Chinese and even more with the immigration, mandarin is the language spoken on the street.
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Overbom

Senior Member
Registered Member
There is precedent in WWII German ask the Swiss for safe passage thru Switzerland either you relent or you got invaded The swiss just have no choice It is not goodwill. You just can't refuse the offer!
Fair enough, good point. Hopefully BRI will get construsted quickly so that blockades at the very least wont be able to stop energy supplies to China.

Lastly, lets see when/if the Maynmar troubles end, so that we can get back to normal business with them
 

Petrolicious88

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't think the United States lacks the brains to deal with issues related to pre-war, during-war and post-war. But somehow, history always repeats itself. From Vietnam to Afghanistan. Maybe the problem is not with the American experts and senior advisers, but with the American political, industrial and economic system, which is on a bicycle, must pedal continuously. That is why the United States continues to wage wars regardless of the cost, the American people may suffer, but their elites do not.
Vietnam war, Afghan war, Iraq war did not really damage the standard of living for US citizens. Their impact on US citizens is….almost niltch. US is also rich enough to afford these wars.

In fact, these wars have in some ways made American companies richer. How many millions….hundreds of millions/dollars were profited by a company like Halliburton.

The MIC, which is a huge part of the economy, is a money making machine. War after war, decade after decade, trillions of dollars, and it just keeps on going.
 
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windsclouds2030

Junior Member
Registered Member
Vietnam war, Afghan war, Iraq war did not really damage the standard of living for US citizens. Their impact on US citizens is….almost niltch. US is also rich enough to afford these wars.

In fact, these wars have in some ways made American companies richer. How many millions….hundreds of millions/dollars were profited by a company like Halliburton.

The MIC, which is a huge part of the economy, is a money making machine. War after war, decade after decade, trillions of dollars, and it just keeps on going.
It's true that United States had its wars outside its own mainland... so far.

But major powers already recognize this thing that makes the US have strong affinity to use violent means to solve the geopolitical issues, because the people there not really feel the painful effects of military conflicts, they don't really understand the war suffering. However, the other major powers already stated that, God forbid, in the direct clash with the US, its mainland (CONUS) won't be free from the war's destructive effects. Things like the past unscratched "luxuries" of WW1 and WW2 won't happen again! Just go and search for Putin's repeated warnings. China is more quiet and say less obvious thing publicly but iirc Global Times has some pieces on that matter. I believe China think the same thing like Putin... no one is too holy to be free from the destructive effects of the direct military conflicts. It is just whether or not the other side will try to grasp it. But honestly I think it's quite tough, lack of experiences hardly convince and teach any one of such bitterness.
 

Petrolicious88

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's true that United States had its wars outside its own mainland... so far.

But major powers already recognize this thing that makes the US have strong affinity to use violent means to solve the geopolitical issues, because the people there not really feel the painful effects of military conflicts, they don't really understand the war suffering. However, the other major powers already stated that, God forbid, in the direct clash with the US, its mainland (CONUS) won't be free from the war's destructive effects. Things like the past unscratched "luxuries" of WW1 and WW2 won't happen again! Just go and search for Putin's repeated warnings. China is more quiet and say less obvious thing publicly but iirc Global Times has some pieces on that matter. I believe China think the same thing like Putin... no one is too holy to be free from the destructive effects of the direct military conflicts. It is just whether or not the other side will try to grasp it. But honestly I think it's quite tough, lack of experiences hardly convince and teach any one of such bitterness.
My point is Vietnam, Iraq, Afghan wars had almost no strategic damage to the US. US standard of living and way of life were never affected by these wars.

It’s economy benefited from these wars as hundreds of private contractors, including many small businesses with less than 25 employees, collectively made trillions of dollars.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
My point is Vietnam, Iraq, Afghan wars had almost no strategic damage to the US. US standard of living and way of life were never affected by these wars.

It’s economy benefited from these wars as hundreds of private contractors, including many small businesses with less than 25 employees, collectively made trillions of dollars.
I don't agree with this overspending on military will incurred debt and sofar the position of US dollar allow US to borrow at ridiculously low rate. But not spending on infrastructure, education, health and social welfare exacerbate US decline and inflame social, racial conflict just watch the news . So NO it is not cost free. unnecessary war has consequent and price to pay. It is not free. History proof that once a country engage in costly war the rot will set in . Rome does it, So do the British etc
 

windsclouds2030

Junior Member
Registered Member
My point is Vietnam, Iraq, Afghan wars had almost no strategic damage to the US. US standard of living and way of life were never affected by these wars.

It’s economy benefited from these wars as hundreds of private contractors, including many small businesses with less than 25 employees, collectively made trillions of dollars.
See your points... moreover the WRC status is another key factor here aside from the MIC, and indeed the WRC+Petrodollar, 11 CVBG, over 800 overseas military bases and MIC are interlinked each other. When I mentioned above I had the two WWs in my mind, not the one-sided hammering of those small and defenseless nations.
 

Petrolicious88

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't agree with this overspending on military will incurred debt and sofar the position of US dollar allow US to borrow at ridiculously low rate. But not spending on infrastructure, education, health and social welfare exacerbate US decline and inflame social, racial conflict just watch the news . So NO it is not cost free. unnecessary war has consequent and price to pay. It is not free. History proof that once a country engage in costly war the rot will set in . Rome does it, So do the British etc

US is a multi-cultural society. Racial tension is always going to be an issue. But overall, it remains very tolerant to immigrants from all backgrounds. IMO, immigrants are actually more prejudiced and racist than white Americans.

But yes I agree US should spend more on education and bring down the cost of health care, etc..
 

davidau

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's true that United States had its wars outside its own mainland... so far.

But major powers already recognize this thing that makes the US have strong affinity to use violent means to solve the geopolitical issues, because the people there not really feel the painful effects of military conflicts, they don't really understand the war suffering. However, the other major powers already stated that, God forbid, in the direct clash with the US, its mainland (CONUS) won't be free from the war's destructive effects. Things like the past unscratched "luxuries" of WW1 and WW2 won't happen again! Just go and search for Putin's repeated warnings. China is more quiet and say less obvious thing publicly but iirc Global Times has some pieces on that matter. I believe China think the same thing like Putin... no one is too holy to be free from the destructive effects of the direct military conflicts. It is just whether or not the other side will try to grasp it. But honestly I think it's quite tough, lack of experiences hardly convince and teach any one of such bitterness.
Pretty sure China has prepared for all eventuality.
 

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