China's SCS Strategy Thread

[davidau]

Decent analysis, but the fundamental problem with that is you are trying to retrospective apply UNCLOS to historical claims made centuries before UNCLOS and the very notion of territorial waters and EEZs were a thing. That is the central reason why the 9 dash line doesn’t conform to modern norms.

These claims were grandfathered in when China joined UNCLOS, which China did by exercising standard provisions within UNCLOS created precisely for such examples.

China’s current policy is deliberate strategic ambiguity in terms of what its historical claims means. That is to give itself maximum leverage to try to settle disputes with other claimants, but also to allow itself room to upgrade its claims should the need arises.

The SCS issue was essentially a minor non-issue until the US tried to turn it into a stranglehold against Chinese sea base trade, since that is the only realistic place on earth where anyone could actually try to cut Chinese shipping lanes.

Do it further away at Malacca strait and you have the mother of all administrative burdens trying to sift out ships heading towards China from the rest of the world and most likely strangle world trade before you could strangle Chinese shipping. Do it closer and you get annihilated by the PLA.

The US wanted its cat paws of the Philippines and Vietnam to grab islands and build military bases that the US could then ‘lease’ to dominate the region. Worst case they fight the PLAN far from mainland Chinese air cover and only one carrier and win easily.

What they did not even dream of was that China could build artificial islands to the scale and at the speed that it did.

Now not only will the PLAN have land based air cover from the island bases, it also have comprehensive long range sensor networks and bases for its vast fleets of type 022 FACs and 056A corvettes.

China has won the SCS. Western FON patrols are just bad looser antics that speaks of a lack of real options on their part rather than a demonstration of strength. It’s like street thugs walking in front of police stations giving the stink eye. They might think they look menacing, but they aren’t intimidating anyone sitting in those police stations since they know they can easily turn those thugs into Swiss cheese any time they please. That’s also why we are hearing less and less about the SCS, and why US propaganda attacks have since moved on to HK, Xinjiang and now Taiwan. It’s just a catalog of failures for them.

Thanks for the great analysis. Thugs, the US and its alliances are!

 

[ansy1968]

@ansy1968 -- Do you think Bong Bong will be a good leader?

I don't know PHI politics and only know Duterte and I am skeptical whenever I see a celeb (artist, athlete, etc) wanna be a leader. I don't buy into image creation, PR stunt, most of the time it's bad for people, if they are not corrupt then they are not competent.

@windsclouds2030 bro considering the candidates , he is the best one!

 

[Facm337]

Decent analysis, but the fundamental problem with that is you are trying to retrospective apply UNCLOS to historical claims made centuries before UNCLOS and the very notion of territorial waters and EEZs were a thing. That is the central reason why the 9 dash line doesn’t conform to modern norms.

These claims were grandfathered in when China joined UNCLOS, which China did by exercising standard provisions within UNCLOS created precisely for such examples.

China’s current policy is deliberate strategic ambiguity in terms of what its historical claims means. That is to give itself maximum leverage to try to settle disputes with other claimants, but also to allow itself room to upgrade its claims should the need arises.

The SCS issue was essentially a minor non-issue until the US tried to turn it into a stranglehold against Chinese sea base trade, since that is the only realistic place on earth where anyone could actually try to cut Chinese shipping lanes.

Do it further away at Malacca strait and you have the mother of all administrative burdens trying to sift out ships heading towards China from the rest of the world and most likely strangle world trade before you could strangle Chinese shipping. Do it closer and you get annihilated by the PLA.

The US wanted its cat paws of the Philippines and Vietnam to grab islands and build military bases that the US could then ‘lease’ to dominate the region. Worst case they fight the PLAN far from mainland Chinese air cover and only one carrier and win easily.

What they did not even dream of was that China could build artificial islands to the scale and at the speed that it did.

Now not only will the PLAN have land based air cover from the island bases, it also have comprehensive long range sensor networks and bases for its vast fleets of type 022 FACs and 056A corvettes.

China has won the SCS. Western FON patrols are just bad looser antics that speaks of a lack of real options on their part rather than a demonstration of strength. It’s like street thugs walking in front of police stations giving the stink eye. They might think they look menacing, but they aren’t intimidating anyone sitting in those police stations since they know they can easily turn those thugs into Swiss cheese any time they please. That’s also why we are hearing less and less about the SCS, and why US propaganda attacks have since moved on to HK, Xinjiang and now Taiwan. It’s just a catalog of failures for them.

Thank you for this reply as well as the previous one from FieryCross.

Would you have any sources for the grandfathering of China's claims when they joined UNCLOS, as well as for American encouragement of PH and VN to build islands first (presumably in the 1990s and 2000s)? Would be nice to have some solid evidence to dispel claims that China is somehow ignoring international rules and norms in the SCS.

And lastly, regarding China's policy of strategic ambiguity - would it be fair to say that their practical position (even if it hasn't been officially clarified) is that SCS within the 9 dash line is an EEZ, rather than a full sovereign Chinese territory?

 

[BagPiper]

Anyways.... back to topic. At current pace, when would we see the dry dock get flooded?

 

[plawolf]

Thank you for this reply as well as the previous one from FieryCross.

Would you have any sources for the grandfathering of China's claims when they joined UNCLOS, as well as for American encouragement of PH and VN to build islands first (presumably in the 1990s and 2000s)? Would be nice to have some solid evidence to dispel claims that China is somehow ignoring international rules and norms in the SCS.

And lastly, regarding China's policy of strategic ambiguity - would it be fair to say that their practical position (even if it hasn't been officially clarified) is that SCS within the 9 dash line is an EEZ, rather than a full sovereign Chinese territory?

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Upon ratification (7 June 1996)1/:
China
In accordance with the decision of the Standing Committee of the Eighth National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China at its nineteenth session, the President of the People's Republic of China has hereby ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 10 December 1982 and at the same time made the following statement:
[Original: Chinese]

1. In accordance with the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the People's Republic of China shall enjoy sovereign rights and jurisdiction over an exclusive economic zone of 200 nautical miles and the continental shelf.
2. The People's Republic of China will effect, through consultations, the delimitation of the boundary of the maritime jurisdiction with the States with coasts opposite or adjacent to China respectively on the basis of international law and in accordance with the principle of equitability.
3. The People's Republic of China reaffirms its sovereignty over all its archipelagos and islands as listed in article 2 of the Law of the People's Republic of China on the territorial sea and the contiguous zone, which was promulgated on 25 February 1992.
4. The People's Republic of China reaffirms that the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea concerning innocent passage through the territorial sea shall not prejudice the right of a coastal State to request, in accordance with its laws and regulations, a foreign State to obtain advance approval from or give prior notification to the coastal State for the passage of its warships through the territorial sea of the coastal State.
Declaration made after ratification (25 August 2006) Declaration under article 298:
The Government of the People's Republic of China does not accept any of the procedures provided for in Section 2 of Part XV of the Convention with respect to all the categories of disputes referred to in paragraph 1 (a) (b) and (c) of Article 298 of the Convention.

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LAW OF THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA ON THE TERRITORIAL SEA AND THE CONTIGUOUS ZONE​

The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress Order of the President of the People's Republic of China No.55 The Law of the People's Republic of China on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone, adopted at the 24th Meeting of the Standing Committee of the Seventh National People's Congress on February 25, 1992, is promulgated now and shall enter into force as of the date of promulgation. President of the People's Republic of China: Yang Shangkun February 25, 1992 Law of the People's Republic of China on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone Article 1 This Law is enacted for the People's Republic of China to exercise its sovereignty over its territorial sea and the control over its contiguous zone, and to safeguard its national security and its maritime rights and interests. Article 2 The territorial sea of the People's Republic of China is the sea belt adjacent to the land territory and the internal waters of the People's Republic of China. The land territory of the People's Republic of China includes the mainland of the People's Republic of China and its coastal islands; Taiwan and all islands appertaining thereto including the Diaoyu Islands; the Penghu Islands; the Dongsha Islands; the Xisha Islands; the Zhongsha Islands and the Nansha Islands; as well as all the other islands belonging to the People's Republic of China. The waters on the landward side of the baselines of the territorial sea of the People's Republic of China constitute the internal waters of the People's Republic of China.

 

[TK3600]

The matter of china playing the role of a police got me thinking. The US needs to continue this perennial war machine in order to sustain it's military and it's MIC. Imperialism feeds it's war machine. And the war machine aids it's imperialism. While I see china as a far cry from the imperialist, I fail to understand how does it expect to sustain this huge navy that it is building if it wants to stay in this non confrontational role. I guess my question hinges on 2 points. What is different in China's case? Can the Chinese shipbuilding or aircraft industry sustain itself without the need for perpetual wars or fuelling conflicts elsewhere to export it's products?

The real answer is US MIC does not have the civilian business to keep it afloat. Chinese MIC like the ship building industry can survive without military orders.

 

[Partoll]

Hi, i am little bit surprised that everyone discover in recent year the " china sea map" because she didn't change from decade, wathever from Qin dinastie , " republican" , KTM , and CCP , most is ROC didn't change his claim from when they manage the mainland until now as " Taiwan authority "

Finally nothing change from decade or century , but we just start to discover that now ! it's joke !

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

 

[AndrewS]

Thanks for the great analysis. Thugs, the US and its alliances are!

On the SCS, remember it was Hilary Clinton that announced to the global media that the SCS was not a core Chinese national interest
Which is funny, because an announcement like this should come directly from the Chinese Foreign Ministry
In Geoff Dyer's book, he confirms that Clinton "refreshed" her memory of what the Chinese said

Clinton was right that China was forced to own the statement, but wrong in that China would have no response
Instead of the SCS claimant nations flocking to the US Navy for protection, China built the islands in a display of shock and awe
Now China defacto controls the SCS and all the other nations have taken note of American incompetence and impotence

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1442877390393253902