China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
No the railgun prototype isn't fitted onto a warship, just a test rig. I would assume it's waiting for new propulsion or electrics on the 055. Probably will be integrated with a modernised 055B variant that takes in a comprehensive overhaul and fitted with very different set of internals.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think the railguns are still in testing and development, I would expect to see at least one more refined version to be tested on a ship before mass adoption could be considered.
Although there have recently been news posted about 20MW ‘Turbo Generators’ being fitted to PLAN warships, so it looks like work on the railguns have progressed to a fairly advanced stage for the PLAN to be making provisions for them already, and it may not be long before a pre-production railgun is fitted to either a test ship, or even retrofitted to an operational ship that has one or more of these ‘turbo generators’ already installed.
However, with all that being said, I think it is important to stress that naval railguns will not come close to the 1000mile range of the rumoured superguns.
The suspected Chinese super gun being tested in the desert measured over 110feet long. That’s 33m, and many times the size of the naval railgun testbed.
Although there have recently been news posted about 20MW ‘Turbo Generators’ being fitted to PLAN warships, so it looks like work on the railguns have progressed to a fairly advanced stage for the PLAN to be making provisions for them already, and it may not be long before a pre-production railgun is fitted to either a test ship, or even retrofitted to an operational ship that has one or more of these ‘turbo generators’ already installed.
However, with all that being said, I think it is important to stress that naval railguns will not come close to the 1000mile range of the rumoured superguns.
The suspected Chinese super gun being tested in the desert measured over 110feet long. That’s 33m, and many times the size of the naval railgun testbed.
The USA might be gung-ho, and the president is undoubtedly far from being a very stable genius, but the Pentagon does tend to be at least somewhat grounded in reality, and I think the USN is very well aware of the dangers of a serious conflict in the SCS.
While a carrier strike force could potentially inflict damage on one of the island bases, there is absolutely no guarantee it will knock out all of them, or even render one un-usable - they are islands, not ships after all. The USN is acutely aware that the SCS islands are as much about creating a bear trap for any hostile external fleet entering the SCS as much as they are about being an outer ring of defence for the mainland.
Any fleet that enters is at risk from a barrage of anti-shipping weapons and aerial attack, with no real way out due to the geography of the area. Yes, you could hypothetically nuke the islands, but no sane real-world battle plan is going to involve that as retaliation for anti-shipping missile attacks - things would already have to have escalated way beyond sea battles for that to be on the cards.
Realistically I think the US will still with some FONOPS games, but I suspect has come to the realisation that the SCC is effectively a Chinese pond, and that they were too late to the Spratly islands game to really do much about it, and will instead move onto learning from that mistake. I expect we'll see much more intense pressure from the US on places like the Philippines, Indonesia and the second island chain nations like Palau to try and prevent the same scenario replaying. The US is acutely aware that the Philippines is big weak link in their containment project. If they are sensible they will pour development aid in, and be busy promising them the sun itself. Threats will only backfire, and drive them closer to China as a source of protection.
China would be wise to pre-empt this by offering PH a bi-lateral agreement for dividing the islands within the PH claimed areas, coupled with development aid, and sharing of revenues from any offshore activities. This would demonstrate goodwill and build trust, to lure the PH way from caving in to US demands. Ultimately this trust could result in the PH allowing China to operate a PLAN base on the Philippine east coast, in locations such as Legazpi or Tacloban, which would be a massive strategic win.
While a carrier strike force could potentially inflict damage on one of the island bases, there is absolutely no guarantee it will knock out all of them, or even render one un-usable - they are islands, not ships after all. The USN is acutely aware that the SCS islands are as much about creating a bear trap for any hostile external fleet entering the SCS as much as they are about being an outer ring of defence for the mainland.
Any fleet that enters is at risk from a barrage of anti-shipping weapons and aerial attack, with no real way out due to the geography of the area. Yes, you could hypothetically nuke the islands, but no sane real-world battle plan is going to involve that as retaliation for anti-shipping missile attacks - things would already have to have escalated way beyond sea battles for that to be on the cards.
Realistically I think the US will still with some FONOPS games, but I suspect has come to the realisation that the SCC is effectively a Chinese pond, and that they were too late to the Spratly islands game to really do much about it, and will instead move onto learning from that mistake. I expect we'll see much more intense pressure from the US on places like the Philippines, Indonesia and the second island chain nations like Palau to try and prevent the same scenario replaying. The US is acutely aware that the Philippines is big weak link in their containment project. If they are sensible they will pour development aid in, and be busy promising them the sun itself. Threats will only backfire, and drive them closer to China as a source of protection.
China would be wise to pre-empt this by offering PH a bi-lateral agreement for dividing the islands within the PH claimed areas, coupled with development aid, and sharing of revenues from any offshore activities. This would demonstrate goodwill and build trust, to lure the PH way from caving in to US demands. Ultimately this trust could result in the PH allowing China to operate a PLAN base on the Philippine east coast, in locations such as Legazpi or Tacloban, which would be a massive strategic win.
When you look at it that way, control of the SCS seems to also be a good way to keep tabs on Vietnam and Philippines and all the traffic going through the area.
Hi FireyCross,
Regarding the Philippine, Xi promise for Vaccine will surely help plus the need to speed up the JOINT Oil EXPLORATION (60/40) agreement. On the economic front ,China investment in infrastructure will have a symbolic and strategic gain, it solidify China commitment with hard project during an economic depression and a pandemic. All of these will be a strategic move by boosting president Duterte legacy that will be hard to erase by fake news and anti Duterte propaganda (emanating from western press, Soros and NED)
It must move quickly, time is running out on President Duterte term (2022)and it may be shorten when Biden win the election (remember the S.O.B comment by Duterte on Obama) thru a color revolution type of a coup. Right now there are grumbling among the powerful oligarchs ( a owner of a closed TV Station , a major water concessionaire, power and telco) who are affected by Duterte action on their monopolistic business practices. They are pooling their resources and are trying to topple the govt using the covid pandemic as an excuse. These oligarch are the tools of US and with the Phillippine strategic location and the coming cold war with China, more US activity will come in play in the coming Phillippine presidential election and they will decide the winner, but to do that they need first to discredit President Duterte.
Regarding the bases, that will never happen, both for China and the US cause its against our constitution. The VFA (visiting forces agreement) was frame to skirt that prohibition. but no permanent US presence (bases)
VFA isn't the critical element of PH-US MDA. It's the EDCA. US Navy already have temporary deployment since the Aquino administration signed the EDCA.
Duterte claiming Xi personally promised him about the COVID19 vaccine is suspicious and dubious.
There are boats and ships (cargo vessels) confiscated by Duterte administration, that are being used to impostor as "Chinese".
Duterte claiming Xi personally promised him about the COVID19 vaccine is suspicious and dubious.
There are boats and ships (cargo vessels) confiscated by Duterte administration, that are being used to impostor as "Chinese".
Hi CMFDan,
Without VFA (VISITING FORCES AGREEMENT) EDCA is useless, EDCA is anchor on VFA, that is why there is a great uproar when Duterte rescind it. Regarding boats, how can you distinguish a Taiwanese, vietnamese and Chinese from each other? and about the vaccine the offer is made in good faith, an example of close cooperation is when PHILIPPINE military chief of staff, the highest military commander request the Chinese embassy for Carrimycin tablets which is available only in China to fight Covid. Which cause a lot of unnecessary controversy by the bias media in my country, you can read the headline " the military is being influence by the Chinese , our claim is being compromised" LOL
bajingan
Senior Member
Very interesting article from valdai discussion club, the author explained how to deal with a declining america, but most interestingly he mentioned that in order to pressure the Chinese leadership and force it to make fatal mistakes trump admin might finally recognise taiwan independence, which is likely in my view, since everything they did so far to bait China to fire the first shot hasn't worked
Now is tsai ing wen stupid enough to declare taiwan independence with the promise of full us support?, and if yes will China take the bait and invades taiwan as Xi Jinping has warned to do so on many occassion? Me thinks China should not go to war even if taiwan declare independence, ( no other countries except five eyes dogs and japan will recognise it anyway) as war is the only thing that will stop China rise and exactly the thing that the us wants the most, China distracted by war unable to focus on internal development. economic sanctions will be enough to bring taiwan to its knees
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