China's SCS Strategy Thread


foxmulder_ms

Junior Member
Well, that's a very weak argument. People can dispute your argument without even rebuking your statement.
They will just say: "Sure, but today's China is fundamentally a different beast from that traditional China of 2000 years.", and you will have nothing to counter that.
It is not my opinion it is the way things are. China has been always reactionary. It is in the DNA of the civilization. As long as Taiwan does not loss its mind and declare independence (or decides to have THAADs and American forces on her against Mainland) there is no way China will attack.
 

foxmulder_ms

Junior Member
Also for these islands, China would not have built these 3 large bases if Vietnam suddenly wouldn't have built/upgraded 40 odd bases it had. And, Beijing wouldn't send war planes/arms to them if Obama admin accepted Xi's offer. Xi offered not to arm these islands in a meeting in USA to Obama. Obama didn't respond immediately at the meeting. Couple weeks later response came in the form of US NAVY ships sailing close proximity to islands! Even in South China sea, China just reacts.
 

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
Escellent this article below explain clearly the rational why China built the SCS islet bases excellent James Holmes is Toshi Yoshihara coauthor on many article about Chinese navy. And of course China basher. Here is the summary of his thought. Except that China does not do it to colonize other or wrest other people land, but to safe guard their soft under belly.

Think of American conquest of vast expense of the west with few soldier station in fort and forray out to destroy the Indian and send scout to observe and act as sentry.
And those bases will be more valuable in the coming years as China progress with their advance UAV, UUV, Sea glider Sossus, Undersea great wall and integrared command and communication on those islet.

The other use of of course is to hide their SSBN and SSN and form Bastion Soviet style. Without air cover and naval protection those sub will be hunted. The islet will support those effort with situation awareness, fuel, navigation, R&R

It is stroke of genius I gues China outflanked them all

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Excerpt.
Without a monopoly of force over rival contestants—the Philippines, Vietnam, or most recently Malaysia—China’s sovereignty will remain in dispute.

In a sense, then, the PLA finds itself wearing the U.S. Army’s boots from Wild West days of yore. It is trying to wrest sovereign control from neighbors by imposing a monopoly of force. The maritime environment in
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nudges the PLA toward a strategy relying on island fastnesses. Ships and aircraft can range out across the sea from bases atop artificial islands in the Spratly or Paracel archipelagoes, hunting for navies or coast guards that defy Beijing’s wishes. These are Communist China’s counterparts to forts dispatching army scouts. Warships, coast-guard cutters, fishing vessels, aircraft—these are conveyances that cannot loiter everywhere, forever. But if positioned at key points on the nautical chart they can make regular sweeps, vector in heavy forces to trouble spots, and in the process help the PLA approximate the geographic coverage at sea that an army or police force achieves on land. They can approach Admiral Wylie’s ideal of the man on the scene with a gun—even at sea.


So the aircraft that puzzle my friend are scouts, part of the long arm of Chinese sovereignty in embattled waters. They gather the information that helps senior officers direct combat power to where it is needed. The more often they deploy to island bases, and the more they do so in significant numbers, the better the PLA’s chances of imposing stifling coverage in seaways Beijing considers its own. And the more Chinese sovereignty will become reality rather than aspiration. QED.

In the coming years, the China problem will only worsen for Southeast Asian coastal states that insist on their rights to maritime jurisdiction and undersea resources. As propulsion technology advances, for instance, it may become possible for unmanned ships or aircraft to linger on station virtually forever. Boundless seaborne or airborne endurance would grant PLA commanders a surveillance capability U.S. Army commanders could have barely imagined in the American West. The network will become even more formidable if PLA weapons engineers arm unmanned craft in large numbers, letting them act not only as eyes in the sky but as firing platforms in their own right.

Wylie would have to amend his metaphor were he among the quick today. We appear to be entering an age when armed forces no longer need to deploy soldiers with guns under all circumstances. Human overseers might come to use remotely piloted or autonomous gunmen to exert their will. If so, unmanned technologies would have distanced people from the fight at the same time they helped solidify control of embattled space.

So it seems practitioners of high-seas strategy have much to learn from ground warfare after all. And ground-pounders’ teachings disturb as much as they enlighten.

Southeast Asians—and lovers of freedom of the sea everywhere—must come to terms with China’s bid for sovereignty. They must act, making common cause with likeminded partners and fashioning counterstrategies to meet Beijing’s high-plains offensive. Otherwise the region courts an American Indian fate.
 
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Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
Escellent this article below explain clearly the rational why China built the SCS islet bases excellent James Holmes is Toshi Yoshihara coauthor on many article about Chinese navy. And of course China basher. Here is the summary of his thought. Except that China does not do it to colonize other or wrest other people land, but to safe guard their soft under belly.

Think of American conquest of vast expense of the west with few soldier station in fort and forray out to destroy the Indian and send scout to observe and act as sentry.
And those bases will be more valuable in the coming years as China progress with their advance UAV, UUV, Sea glider Sossus, Undersea great wall and integrared command and communication on those islet.

The other use of of course is to hide their SSBN and SSN and form Bastion Soviet style. Without air cover and naval protection those sub will be hunted. The islet will support those effort with situation awareness, fuel, navigation, R&R

It is stroke of genius I gues China outflanked them all

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Excerpt.
Without a monopoly of force over rival contestants—the Philippines, Vietnam, or most recently Malaysia—China’s sovereignty will remain in dispute.

In a sense, then, the PLA finds itself wearing the U.S. Army’s boots from Wild West days of yore. It is trying to wrest sovereign control from neighbors by imposing a monopoly of force. The maritime environment in
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
nudges the PLA toward a strategy relying on island fastnesses. Ships and aircraft can range out across the sea from bases atop artificial islands in the Spratly or Paracel archipelagoes, hunting for navies or coast guards that defy Beijing’s wishes. These are Communist China’s counterparts to forts dispatching army scouts. Warships, coast-guard cutters, fishing vessels, aircraft—these are conveyances that cannot loiter everywhere, forever. But if positioned at key points on the nautical chart they can make regular sweeps, vector in heavy forces to trouble spots, and in the process help the PLA approximate the geographic coverage at sea that an army or police force achieves on land. They can approach Admiral Wylie’s ideal of the man on the scene with a gun—even at sea.


So the aircraft that puzzle my friend are scouts, part of the long arm of Chinese sovereignty in embattled waters. They gather the information that helps senior officers direct combat power to where it is needed. The more often they deploy to island bases, and the more they do so in significant numbers, the better the PLA’s chances of imposing stifling coverage in seaways Beijing considers its own. And the more Chinese sovereignty will become reality rather than aspiration. QED.

In the coming years, the China problem will only worsen for Southeast Asian coastal states that insist on their rights to maritime jurisdiction and undersea resources. As propulsion technology advances, for instance, it may become possible for unmanned ships or aircraft to linger on station virtually forever. Boundless seaborne or airborne endurance would grant PLA commanders a surveillance capability U.S. Army commanders could have barely imagined in the American West. The network will become even more formidable if PLA weapons engineers arm unmanned craft in large numbers, letting them act not only as eyes in the sky but as firing platforms in their own right.

Wylie would have to amend his metaphor were he among the quick today. We appear to be entering an age when armed forces no longer need to deploy soldiers with guns under all circumstances. Human overseers might come to use remotely piloted or autonomous gunmen to exert their will. If so, unmanned technologies would have distanced people from the fight at the same time they helped solidify control of embattled space.

So it seems practitioners of high-seas strategy have much to learn from ground warfare after all. And ground-pounders’ teachings disturb as much as they enlighten.

Southeast Asians—and lovers of freedom of the sea everywhere—must come to terms with China’s bid for sovereignty. They must act, making common cause with likeminded partners and fashioning couhnterstrategies to meet Beijing’s high-plains offensive. Otherwise the region courts an American Indian fate.
There is one significance difference. The US dominated the Wild West because of she wanted the land and wealth for her own. China wants to dominate the South China Sea for her own survival.

Point 1 : This has been discussed in this or another thread already, so I just be brief. Until China's ballistic missile submarine fleet can regularly and safely breaks through the First and Second Island Chains, the only place realistically for China to hide them unmolested is in the South China Sea, if China's navy can dominate. China subscribes to a no first strike principle. So preserving her second strike capability is critical for her own survival.

Point 2 : If, say, the United Antartic Republic navy successfully blockaded the South China Sea, who will be hurt the most. Both Koreas, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines can just use the water between the First and Second Island Chains. An inconvenience ? - Yes. But fatal ? - Hardly. US, UK, Canada, Australia ? Hardly. None other ASEAN countries will be affected except Vietnam. But even she can use her own coastal water to access the Malacca Strait and rest of East Asia. But for China, her sea trade route will essentially be shut off and this is a critical survival issue.

As a result, China sees any so called freedom of navigation sail through of South China Sea, especially by navies that has little economic benefit or loss in the region, as attempts to choke off China as part of their encirclement strategy. She cannot allow that for her own economic survival.

A few countries like Philippine (under Duterte) and Malaysia (under Najib and later Mahathir) understand China's concern has has been sympathetic. Just my 2 cents worth.
 
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Gatekeeper

Captain
Registered Member
What will this mean moving forward?

South China Sea chaos: Huge blow for Beijing as Philippines sticks with US military pact
TENSIONS in the South China Sea look set to spike again after the Philippines suspended its plan to end a key defence pact with the US.
By
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PUBLISHED: 11:25, Wed, Jun 3, 2020UPDATED: 11:54, Wed, Jun 3, 2020

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Dolcevita

Senior Member
What will this mean moving forward?

South China Sea chaos: Huge blow for Beijing as Philippines sticks with US military pact
TENSIONS in the South China Sea look set to spike again after the Philippines suspended its plan to end a key defence pact with the US.
By
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PUBLISHED: 11:25, Wed, Jun 3, 2020UPDATED: 11:54, Wed, Jun 3, 2020

Rest of the article;

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British and US media are deceptive in their narration, Try a local press.

PH suspends abrogation of VFA for 6 months

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