China's SCS Strategy Thread

China's underlying logic in the SCS shares similarities with the Monroe Doctrine in the Caribbean. It is not likely that China would claim the whole sea as 100% sovereign waters. I think China is trying to make a grand bargain in the region that results in it being the preeminent power of the region and other nations would be compelled to join a China lead regional order (Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Philippines, Singapore). There would be free navigation and exploration of resources by other nations, just under a different framework. Ultimately China views the current framework an architecture that it didn't participate in creating thus would like to contribute its "ideas".

Give a listen to Michael Pillsbury's videos or read his books, it provides some good insight into the overall picture. I've bought his book "The Hundred Year Marathon". He outlines the perspectives of some in China's government quite well as he speaks Mandarin, reads Chinese and had experience dealing with Chinese officials and military officers. I encourage more young people to learn Mandarin and be able to read Chinese as the language barrier is a big disadvantage for the West in understanding China.

Noting that today's PRC's vision for the geopolitical order in East Asia closely corresponds to an updated version of the actual geopolitical order in East Asia for much of history, updated mostly according to international agreements which have not been fully honored by others particularly the US and Japan. And given the as yet unresolved Chinese civil war between the PRC and RoC.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Chinese missile launchers reappear on disputed South China Sea island
By
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, CNN
Updated 3:12 AM ET, Mon June 11, 2018
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A series of Chinese missile systems have reappeared on a disputed island in the South China Sea, days after satellite imagery appeared to show they had been removed.

The initial discovery of their disappearance was made by
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in early June, who
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where previously there had been a large number of missile launchers.
But in new intelligence analysis released Monday, the organization said the weapons had reappeared on Woody Island on the Paracel island chain.
180611143021-20180611-woody-island-sam-system-01-exlarge-169.jpg


Satellite images provided to CNN on June 11 show before and after images of Woody Island.
In their initial analysis of the surface-to-air missile systems' removal, ISI said it was possible they had simply been redeployed to another island, or moved as part of a drill.
When the original images were released, experts were extremely skeptical that the launchers had been permanently removed, suggesting instead they may have been sent for maintenance.

"Due to the corrosive effects of salt and humidity in the islands, HQ-9 missile systems must be removed and sent back to the mainland for maintenance periodically," said Timothy Heath, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corporation.
180611144259-20180611-woody-island-sam-system-02-exlarge-169.jpg


The images provided by ISI show missile launchers on Woody Island on May 20 and June 8.
The mystery disappearance came at a time of heightened tensions in the South China Sea, amid
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in the area and the landing of Chinese bombers on
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It is one of the most contested regions in the world -- Beijing claims an enormous swathe of territory across the South China Sea, overlapping claims from Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan, among others.


To reinforce its claim, the Chinese government has reclaimed and militarized a series of islands across the contested region, provoking regular criticism from the United States and other regional countries.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry hasn't commented on reports it removed the missile launchers but in her daily press briefing on June 6, spokeswoman Hua Chunying laid the blame for increased militarization squarely with the United States.
"Isn't it militarization when you send attacking weapons like the B-52 bombers to the South China Sea? ... If someone frequently flexes his muscles or snoops around near your house, shouldn't you raise your alertness and improve your defense capabilities?" she said.

 

advill

Junior Member
Among us who are Military/Naval & Geo-Political Strategists, whether Asian or the Westerners, will acknowledge that today's Wars & Hostilities can never permanently end in the Winning side/s. Those "loud mouths" who are posturing, especially the arm-chair leaders and their advisers (several may never even have served in the military) continue to practise megaphone threats. They often don't want to consider that future wars/hostilities are different from past history. They still think that as Napoleon was cowed, so too with Hitler & Tojo, and conflicts during recent times, the Victors can continue on similar warlike/posturing paths. The use of modern Missiles, advanced warships etc., & finally the use of Nuclear weapons would eventually lead to Global Destruction. Let there be PEACE ON EARTH, & nations should wake up to this reality for the sake of their citizens (men, women & children).
 
now I read
Chinese FM urges against external influences in South China Sea
2018-06-12 21:36 GMT+8
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Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Tuesday that the situation in the South China Sea has remained calm and it will remain so as long as external countries refrain from making waves.

Wang made the statement during a press conference after his meeting with Lim Jock Hoi, the secretary-general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

"The Secretary General and I did not discuss the South China Sea because we know the situation there is calm. We agree that thanks to the efforts of all sides, issues in the marine region have been brought back on the right track for dialogue and consultation for the parties involved," said Wang.

"A new round of COC (Code of Conduct) consultations will be held in China at the end of this month. We are confident of making further progress through the signing of the COC," added Wang.

Lim's visit to China comes as both sides welcome the 15th anniversary of the China-ASEAN strategic partnership. In order to celebrate that milestone, the two sides agree to expand cooperation in areas of trade, culture and innovation.

While speaking to the press, the Chinese foreign minister suggested that the two were looking well into the future in this regard.

"First and foremost, China and ASEAN will formulate and sign a Vision 2030 Strategic Partnership Plan to set a mid- to long-term goal to further our cooperation. Secondly, we are looking to deepen our cooperation in innovation," noted Wang.

"This year is the China-ASEAN Innovation Year and we believe through innovation, we will find new opportunities to expand cooperation", Wang said. "And lastly, we will increase our efforts to develop China's Belt and Road Initiative and ASEAN's Connectivity 2025 plan.

"We believe these projects will generate new growth prospects and cooperation for all sides."

The foreign minister added that China was the first country to sign the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation with ASEAN, a peace accord involving Southeast Asian nations.

He said China was also the first country to establish a strategic partnership and sign a Free Trade Agreement (FDA) with ASEAN, all moves that have helped to improve their partnership, drive regional integration and expand ASEAN's international influence.

"China is a major trading partner as well as a major investment partner; we would like to see these to be further enhanced with the implementation of ASEAN-China FDA. We're looking at how we can further our cooperation especially in people-to-people relationship, becasue this is an important area that will further sustain our cooperation," said Lim.

According to China's Ministry of Commerce, bilateral trade between China and ASEAN was worth half a trillion US dollars last year, making the ten-nation bloc China's fastest growing trade partner.

China's exports to ASEAN countries reached 279.1 billion US dollars in 2017, up 9 percent over 2016, while imports rose by 20 percent year-on-year to 235.7 billion US dollars.
 
now noticed through Facebook this interesting link
Beware of the Dragon: The Challenges of China’s Assertive Posture
June 2018
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(not reposting the text as some might consider it ... sensitive LOL)
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
now noticed through Facebook this interesting link
Beware of the Dragon: The Challenges of China’s Assertive Posture
June 2018
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(not reposting the text as some might consider it ... sensitive LOL)

Funny, no one in the West called Western countries being assertive when they bombed and invaded countries on false pretences
 
Funny, no one in the West called Western countries being assertive when they bombed and invaded countries on false pretences

Well, there are Western voices that call out Western aggression but often they are drowned out, ignored, and/or condemned by the warmongering voices.

By the way, I don't think it was your intention, but your comment misleadingly implies that China bombed and invaded countries on false pretenses which China did not.
 
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