goldenpanda
Banned Idiot
Outside China you protect your interest by showing you can hurt people. Look how much Russia can get away with. Inside China it pays to be nice but outside world is different man.
China should move
- Thread starter utelore
- Start date
The Ogaden region is contested between Ethiopia and Somalia. Populated by Muslim Somalis, it was annexed by Ethiopia in early 20th century and Somalia has tried several times to recover it. The last major Ethiopia-Somalia war was in late 1970s, when the Soviet block sided with Ethiopia and squashed the Somalis, but insurgency continues to this day.
About a year before the Chinese oil workers were attacked, the ethnic Somali ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front) was already making threats to attack Malaysian oil site in the Ogaden basin. I have little doubts that similar threats were sent to other oil sites. The Chinese oil company probably appealed to the Ethiopian government for help and received some armed guards, then the ONLF decided to attack and kill them to make good on their threats.
This is a long ethnic-religious conflict in which the Somalis want their land back to create a Greater Somalia, and its neighbors would rather see them squashed. From China's self-interest point of view, it doesn't really matter who's the boss so long as they get to tap into the resources in Ogaden basin. But since the ONLF killed Chinese nationals, I see no reason why the PRC should treat them any better.
The PRC could send PLA units to secure its interests, but the long-distance and logistics required would be extremely expensive for any kind of large-scale operation. I don't think the PLA should or have to pay for it. It'd be cheaper to simply side with the ruling Ethiopians and supply them with the necessary arms and equipment to squash the ONLF.
Ethiopia is a poor country and had to source their hardware from places like North Korea to maintain their old T-55 MBT's. Well! The PRC has plenty of old tanks/APC/IFV's, time to under-cut the North Koreans and provide the Ethiopians with an aid package!
About a year before the Chinese oil workers were attacked, the ethnic Somali ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation Front) was already making threats to attack Malaysian oil site in the Ogaden basin. I have little doubts that similar threats were sent to other oil sites. The Chinese oil company probably appealed to the Ethiopian government for help and received some armed guards, then the ONLF decided to attack and kill them to make good on their threats.
This is a long ethnic-religious conflict in which the Somalis want their land back to create a Greater Somalia, and its neighbors would rather see them squashed. From China's self-interest point of view, it doesn't really matter who's the boss so long as they get to tap into the resources in Ogaden basin. But since the ONLF killed Chinese nationals, I see no reason why the PRC should treat them any better.
The PRC could send PLA units to secure its interests, but the long-distance and logistics required would be extremely expensive for any kind of large-scale operation. I don't think the PLA should or have to pay for it. It'd be cheaper to simply side with the ruling Ethiopians and supply them with the necessary arms and equipment to squash the ONLF.
Ethiopia is a poor country and had to source their hardware from places like North Korea to maintain their old T-55 MBT's. Well! The PRC has plenty of old tanks/APC/IFV's, time to under-cut the North Koreans and provide the Ethiopians with an aid package!
Roger604
Senior Member
If you copy declining or collapsed superpowers, you will end up just like one. China should surely not head down the road of evil.
China should look to the Tang dynasty or the early Ming dynasty for guidance. It should be a center of advanced civilization and trade, not militant barbarism.
Getting caught up in African tribal conflicts is a bad idea.
That's right. I think that whoever is running China's foreign policy understands that if they enter a mixed-up African situation like that they are just going to be used by all side. The Ethiopians will use them to quash the insurgency and internal enemies, the insurgents will use them as a recruting tool, and I can see the US using the insurgents (or much more likely using the "anti-terrorist" de-facto government of Somaliland, which is a breakaway reigion of Somalia, to channel support to whoever is messing with the Chinese in the reigion) to try to limit China's influence in East Africa, which is an area that the US has a growing interest in.
Nope, its much better to keep one's nose out of a situation like that and let the oil flow.
FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
Even the United States refuses to send ground troops for combat operations in Africa. At least not since Mogudishu. The PLA will just run into guerillas and other nasties they can't handle and end up with quite an embarassing situation. Furthermore, losing a dozen or so Chinese citizens is nothing... do you think the Chinese government cares? Maybe if a few thousand Chinese die then the Chinese government might be moved to act. In my opinion, the Chinese have two options. Follow American doctrine in the region and lob a few cruise missiles at empty plots of land, claiming to be hitting rebel leaders, or maybe even blow up a textile factory and claim it was a weapons factory. The other option is to send a small contingent as a show of force, and keep that contigent away from actual combat, but just keep it there to ward off future attacks i nthe area and for the cameras.
Even if China had the means too, getting involved in the regional conflict, while China herself telling other nations not be involved in the, "internal affairs," of other nations, will only cuase very bad political mojo.
Even if China had the means too, getting involved in the regional conflict, while China herself telling other nations not be involved in the, "internal affairs," of other nations, will only cuase very bad political mojo.
goldenpanda
Banned Idiot
Last time the peacekeeper was killed in Lebanon they held a state funeral. Everytime something like this happens the military gets roused up top to bottom. During 1999 embassy bombing and 2001 pilot crash, many regiments wrote their 请战书 (war invitation) to the leadership. That's why they *really really* try to keep low key to not inflame it even more (but in some sense that just pisses people off more).
In the past many border incidents were created by local units without higher instruction, such as with Vietnam and Soviet Union. Border units are more restrained today but then a while ago we had the shooting of Tibetan border crossers. Active duty soldiers are not allowed to watch overly sensational films like "Nanjing Massacre". Especially lately all soldiers train to such frenzy, it's very easy to excite them to take action.
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FriedRiceNSpice
Captain
Yes the Chinese government does make a big deal out of it when soldiers died. Chinese contractors have been abducted and killed in Pakistan, but most of the posters here most likely have never read those articles. Civilian deaths seem to mean very little to the Chinese government, something easily verifiable if you look back on the last few years of the 1980s... but elaborating further on that topic is forbidden.
goldenpanda
Banned Idiot
It's like if I said, obviously losing 3300 soldiers for no good reason means very little to Americans, since they still keep at it.
If you cannot understand why a culture would do something, you can look for the reasons, but not valuing the life of their own people is never going to be the reason.
If you cannot understand why a culture would do something, you can look for the reasons, but not valuing the life of their own people is never going to be the reason.
The_Zergling
Junior Member
Well the thing is quite a few Americans (at least 32%) believe that the soldiers are dying for a worthwhile reason, whatever that may be. That's why the troops are still there. Whether or not the Chinese will act in response to killings of civilians or soldiers will depend greatly on public sentiment. Personally I am doubtful of the Chinese public's approval of getting troops killed in some far-off land. My assumption is that they'd be more gung-ho about fighting the US or something like that as opposed to getting killed by some African militia.
This is a very delicate matter, i think sending in the SOF Reconassiance Detachment is more reasonable to get the scope of things first without engaging in a major conflict. Draw some blood but not too much......