China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?


SPOOPYSKELETON

New Member
Registered Member
Analysis from a respectable poster. In short, the PRC pushed back on liberalization. Current geopolitical tensions are merely the after effect of the reassertion of the Party State. In this regard, China has the initiative, since it saw and reacted to incoming political change first.

https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/comments/gnvh1b/_/frcvjkh
From a diplomatic perspective, it might be perceived in this way, but Chinese politics, like most country's politics, is ultimately domestically focused. My sense, having observed the changes in and around China from when Xi took power, is that the shift in China's policies cannot be analyzed in terms of a single leader enforcing his vision of unilateralism. Rather, the changes are the product of a gradually building process, in which CCP hawks became increasingly concerned with the infiltration of liberal institutions and values, on one hand, and the decentralization and loss of control that attended globalism in the post-Deng years.

In other words, taking back control of China from corporate globalists, their political collaborators, and Western infiltrators was considered an existential crisis within the CCP, the result of which was a rapid process of centralization occurring in the late Hu and the early Xi years. The "war against corruption" that Xi launched was essentially the climax of this process, in which the party purged itself of political challengers before going after corporate globalists like Guo Wengui, Ma Yun, etc., all of whom were forced to flee or step down.

I have written about this before,
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, two years ago when Xi was just finishing up the centralization drive, and my conviction has only grown since then - that this was not a case of one Machiavellian leader hijacking China's government, but rather a product of consensus building within the party that China cannot be allowed to liberalize further. This was the same time the US turned on China as the premier national security threat. Coincidence? I think not. The victory of hawks in both Beijing and Washington was cause-and-effect - first with the recognition by Chinese hawks that they were losing control of their country to liberalization, and then with the reaction from American hawks that if China will not liberalize, then it must be contained.
 

4Runner

Just Hatched
Registered Member
China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?
Before answering this question, the Chinese need to reflect on "where we are" and "how we got here". Briefly, "China" was a notion given by the west. To the Chinese, it is more relevant to the notion of "the Chinese nation", which has been a civilizational nation longer than any other surviving countries on earth. In comparison to the US, which is a constitutional country, China is a civilizational nation. To me, the Great Wall is not a tourism spot, rather it is a living monument that testifies the true colors of the Chinese nation. Let me try to summarize:

(1) We Chinese adopt "mind your own business, mind my own business" principle/doctrine.
China does not interfere until it is REALLY provoked.

(2) The Chinese don't have gene in colonization.
When we spent a mighty fortune sailing around Indo-Pacific in 15th century, instead of conquering/colonizing, we just brought a Giraffe back to please the emperor. Otherwise, most of southeast Asia would have been Chinese sovereign.

(3) When US/West accuses China of aggression, they are talking about areas/regions either inside Chinese sovereign or lips-and-teeth near Chinese sovereign.
It is never China tries to claim other people's land or sea. Funny thing is "South China Sea" has a "China" in it. It is not "Gulf of Mexico".

My point is the Chinese have the most "lessons learned" among all outstanding countries or nations. We don't need a new geopolitical doctrine. We just need to remember and practice those "lessons learned". The Chinese always plays a long game. Event Han WuDi would have "hide your bright and bide your time" for over 10 years before he could actually do anything by himself.

To use an IT cliche, we Chinese have so many "best practices" vis a vis history.
 
@0Fox0 Well, this might be a little moot cus this brah got a permaban for an email issue so I guess this is for everyone else. Once again, no quotes cus too long.

1. So my strategy, and the strategy I'm thinking is the best for the CCP, is to reasonably aggressively covet overseas Chinese opinion because those talents are the most trust-worthy for China. Chinese people are the future of China, so we'll focus on them, and they are also less susceptible to being completely brainwashed against China even by the country they live in. So not only are they easier to convince, they are the most important to convince. With true foreigners, they are much harder to convince for obvious reasons but also, the best they can really do is nothing, and when you tread there, you're likely to start alarm and backlash that Red China's trying to bring big brother to your country. So tread lightly with foreigners to prevent national push-back, but put much more muscle behind captivating overseas Chinese.

2. The US is able to do these things because they actually wrecked and militarily invaded these countries so obviously they control everything in there. AND they did these things when they were the undisputed leader of the world. This is clearly not China's situation so China cannot do the same.

3. When you're talking about using Chinese consumers to punish racism, you're still talking about controlling the minds of Chinese people, not foreigners in foreign countries, which is what the main point of this conversation revolves around. I completely agree that China controls the narratives within its borders (and has influence with overseas Chinese as well) and entities hostile to China should not get Chinese business but this was never the discussion.

4. Now China's a big place for international business. Lots of tech experts/scientists/businessmen from all over the world come to China. Certainly, China should weed through the bad eggs, drug dealers, sex tourists masquerading as ESL teachers, etc... but it really comes down to who you're dealing with. No generalized attitude towards foreigners is appropriate; it's equally terrible to stomp all over a guy who was starry-eyed about Chinese culture and came to do business or work in tech as it is to be too kind to those with malicious intent.

5. Like I said, I don't know about HK. I would have called in the military as soon as a single person died in the riots, but they're apparently reacting with new laws/arrests, etc... after the situation got much cooler than before, which is not my preference. However, given the track record of the CCP, they more than deserve a chance to let them work their ways.

6. Ultimately, creating a Chinese reddit that is successful internationally still lies on the users who are attracted to it, and right now, that calls for many many English-speaking users who are pro-China and for them to vastly outnumber the English speakers who are anti-China, which is, to say the least, a tall order to fill. If this comes to fruition, is more likely to be a result of already high opinions of China in the English-speaking/Western world.

7. Didn't like that one cus it was mostly about the decline in opinion of America? OK, how about this one? Positive views of China increasing amongst the young people of the world, Pew Research Center 2019.
1590119733691.png
 
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Biscuits

Junior Member
Registered Member
Going forward they pretty much only have 2 choices. China could keep using it's reliability and hope to win over most countries while ignoring destabilising ones that hurt their own credibility, or it could launch a counter containment plan to shut off the US but which will in the long term set back Chinese international standing.

As of 2020 China seemingly already switched from focusing on moral high ground only to a hybrid strategy. Beijing has not yet taken decision to fully acknowledge the American danger but is preparing to take countermeasures on publicly acceptable American targets like Boeing for example. However, something like more widespread sanctions on America would be politically unpalatable in China, at least as things currently are.

China doesn't want to be seen as "fighting dirty" which might set back it's reliability. That might change if US (or other countries/groups) ratchet up their hostile activities.
 

Laviduce

New Member
Registered Member
Going forward they pretty much only have 2 choices. China could keep using it's reliability and hope to win over most countries while ignoring destabilising ones that hurt their own credibility, or it could launch a counter containment plan to shut off the US but which will in the long term set back Chinese international standing.

As of 2020 China seemingly already switched from focusing on moral high ground only to a hybrid strategy. Beijing has not yet taken decision to fully acknowledge the American danger but is preparing to take countermeasures on publicly acceptable American targets like Boeing for example. However, something like more widespread sanctions on America would be politically unpalatable in China, at least as things currently are.

China doesn't want to be seen as "fighting dirty" which might set back it's reliability. That might change if US (or other countries/groups) ratchet up their hostile activities.

I think Chinese leadership learned from history that there is no way to appease an out-of-control regime that thinks it stands above all other nations. They do not underestimate the threat of the Neocon/Neolib US to China and the rest of the world. One thing is for sure, given the actions of the Neocon/Neolib US in Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, Iraq,etc. , China and other sovereign nations need to confront this global security challenge now or they will be pay the price later.

The attitude of the Neocon/Neolib US is summed up well in this video by the US Neocon think tank the Heritage Foundation:


Neocon Marshall Billingslea even went so far to say that the US can and will spend Russia and China into oblivion when it comes down to a nuclear weapons arms race.
 

Gatekeeper

Captain
Registered Member
Wow! I don't know where to put this. We lied we cheat Pompeo on Voice of America (I know, caution advised) lay all the ills from Covid 19, Hong Kong, Taiwan and even Australia (funny no mention of USA taken over supply of beans to China) right at China's door!

This shows how big a strategic task is for China ahead. The video is entertaining if nothing else.

 

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