China Navy Power
- Thread starter Rising China
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Thanks, Golly
Thanks, Golly
Okay, I've been thinking about this for a while, so I thought this would be a nice place to put it. The question is as Donald Rumsfeld asked, what enemies do China face and why do they need this expansion.
Let's start by looking in the future, it looks like in the next 20 or 30 years, China will still have 20% of world's population + most likely the 2nd largest economy in nominal terms and the largest in PPP terms after 2020. So, what kind of power should China have and how can China achieve that level of power? As we know, military power is only one part of it.
Clearly, China has already started increasing its international profile in the political realm by using its unique type of diplomacy.
At the same time, through its increased presence in global trade, it has managed to interlink with many economies in the world.
There by through trade and diplomacy, that's one method of getting influence over another country.
Another area is cultural. As we know, the American cultural and American ideals are part of what allowed America to become the symbol of free world for so long. Now, even though communism is not an attractive option for most countries, China does have 5000 years of culture that it can offer to the world. For example, Chinese food is popular in most places and fashion style has mingled into the fashion industry. Chinese movies are starting to get more attention in Hollywood. These are just some of the examples of how the Chinese culture is giving the world a good impression of China.
Now, having said all of that, the military part is quite tricky.
So, what does China need? Note, I'm not saying that China is capable of going this far, but rather that it should aim for this. How far should PLAN develop into in 20 or 30 years. We know that there are 3 major fleets in Chinese navy. What are the main opponents for the North Sea and East Sea fleets? They are clearly JMSDF and ROCN. What kind of scenarios do I forsee?
1) Taiwan independence obviously - (leaving USN out of this scenario for a moment), in this case, the East Sea fleet needs the capability to take out most of ROCN and repel ROCAF strikes with the help of plaaf and pla assets from the Nanjing military region. After that, it must be able to form a naval blockade of Taiwan and also have enough amphibious assets to mount an invasion. At the same time, North Sea fleet needs the capability to repel the Japanese navy from helping out on Taiwan.
2) war between China and Japan - In such a war, the Chinese assets in play would be the North and East Sea fleet + plaaf assets from the Beijing, Shenyang and part of Nanjing military region. Opponent would be whatever JMSDF and JASDF have to offer. (again, I'm unrealistically leaving US out of the equation).
My proposal is for North + East Sea fleet to develop to a point where it is stronger than the combined strength of JMSDF and ROCN.
Now, we come to the South Sea fleet and its purpose. I think I wrote this too hurriedly, so I will need to think more before continuing.
Let's start by looking in the future, it looks like in the next 20 or 30 years, China will still have 20% of world's population + most likely the 2nd largest economy in nominal terms and the largest in PPP terms after 2020. So, what kind of power should China have and how can China achieve that level of power? As we know, military power is only one part of it.
Clearly, China has already started increasing its international profile in the political realm by using its unique type of diplomacy.
At the same time, through its increased presence in global trade, it has managed to interlink with many economies in the world.
There by through trade and diplomacy, that's one method of getting influence over another country.
Another area is cultural. As we know, the American cultural and American ideals are part of what allowed America to become the symbol of free world for so long. Now, even though communism is not an attractive option for most countries, China does have 5000 years of culture that it can offer to the world. For example, Chinese food is popular in most places and fashion style has mingled into the fashion industry. Chinese movies are starting to get more attention in Hollywood. These are just some of the examples of how the Chinese culture is giving the world a good impression of China.
Now, having said all of that, the military part is quite tricky.
So, what does China need? Note, I'm not saying that China is capable of going this far, but rather that it should aim for this. How far should PLAN develop into in 20 or 30 years. We know that there are 3 major fleets in Chinese navy. What are the main opponents for the North Sea and East Sea fleets? They are clearly JMSDF and ROCN. What kind of scenarios do I forsee?
1) Taiwan independence obviously - (leaving USN out of this scenario for a moment), in this case, the East Sea fleet needs the capability to take out most of ROCN and repel ROCAF strikes with the help of plaaf and pla assets from the Nanjing military region. After that, it must be able to form a naval blockade of Taiwan and also have enough amphibious assets to mount an invasion. At the same time, North Sea fleet needs the capability to repel the Japanese navy from helping out on Taiwan.
2) war between China and Japan - In such a war, the Chinese assets in play would be the North and East Sea fleet + plaaf assets from the Beijing, Shenyang and part of Nanjing military region. Opponent would be whatever JMSDF and JASDF have to offer. (again, I'm unrealistically leaving US out of the equation).
My proposal is for North + East Sea fleet to develop to a point where it is stronger than the combined strength of JMSDF and ROCN.
Now, we come to the South Sea fleet and its purpose. I think I wrote this too hurriedly, so I will need to think more before continuing.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Since the US is the most suspicious of China's military buildup and asks why China needs a blue water navy, the question is can the US be relied on to protect the sea lanes that are more important than ever for China's economy? The answer realistically is no. I won't get into the geo-politics but simply China can't rely on any country that looks at it with suspicion.
So how big should the Chinese navy be in order to protect its own interests? Taking out politics... how about using the big dog in the world as a marker... the US? Realistically China is not going to build a navy as large as the US. But anything in between what China has now to the power of the US Navy, no one can complain, especially the US. Why I say no one? Because any other country that China potentially has a conflict with in the future will automatically have the US defending them. So the US is their navy too.
A real debate on this discussion cannot go without politics. Anyone arguing against China's right to a military able to protect its economy is purely going by politics since China's is no where near the power of the US Navy.
So how big should the Chinese navy be in order to protect its own interests? Taking out politics... how about using the big dog in the world as a marker... the US? Realistically China is not going to build a navy as large as the US. But anything in between what China has now to the power of the US Navy, no one can complain, especially the US. Why I say no one? Because any other country that China potentially has a conflict with in the future will automatically have the US defending them. So the US is their navy too.
A real debate on this discussion cannot go without politics. Anyone arguing against China's right to a military able to protect its economy is purely going by politics since China's is no where near the power of the US Navy.
D
Deleted member 675
Guest
But you just get into a vicious circle with that sort of argument. Why does the US look upon China with suspicion? Partly because of things which China can't change (like a fast-growing economy, a large population, etc) and partly because of things it can change (like very fast-growing military expenditure, lack of transparency over spending, hostility towards Taiwan, etc). There are things China could do to reduce Washington's concerns - it isn't simply a case of the US being unreasonable.
When the US was "concerned" over Japan essentially buying it out, was there ever a strong desire in Japan to rearm because the US might try to choke its sea-lanes or not protect them? No. So I don't see why China has to be worried about its own supplies.
Unless China were to go on a romp of Asia to conquer "sovereign Chinese territory" from several countries, there is no reason for the US to cut China's supplies. There isn't even a reason why it wouldn't want to safeguard them against other threats. If the Chinese economy merely slowed it would have a big impact on the US. Thus it will always be in US interests to ensure sea-lanes remain open, unless China kicks off a war.
It is important to take note of the above, because exactly the same sort of argument about protecting sea-lanes has been pushed forward in Japan - in that case about how vulnerable Japan would be if China controlled both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Thus, according to many people (including MPs), Japan needs to rearm and greatly improve its naval power-projection. China wouldn't want that, so it needs to think about how it goes about modernising its own fleet. Doing too much too soon could easily make Japan take steps it wouldn't have considered otherwise - the same applies to South Korea to a lesser extent.
China can have whatever navy it wants, but it should be shaped to what it needs rather than what it is scared it might need at some point in the future. After all it already has a significant naval building and upgrade programme - why is that insufficient? If China starts jumping at its own shadows, other countries may act in the same way because of China's reaction.
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I think with it's growing importance this open sea lanes issue is a concern of national pride and a show of real sovereignity to China. They just don't want to rely on other nations when it comes to the supply of their own country. So I believe Chinas south fleet is trying a builtup to patrol and partly control the island chanes in the west pacific and indian ocean in the future. If this would be absolutely necessary is a different thing. At least it gives you still more room for your actions, because you can controll some things on your own.
An invason force for Taiwan and a negation force to the JMSDF would allow China to tighten it's sphere of influence around it's cost (in a some hundred mile radius).
Of course such builtups would lead to further suspicion, espacialy by the US.
An invason force for Taiwan and a negation force to the JMSDF would allow China to tighten it's sphere of influence around it's cost (in a some hundred mile radius).
Of course such builtups would lead to further suspicion, espacialy by the US.
D
Deleted member 675
Guest
But you have to rely on other countries to an extent - China couldn't afford a navy that could escort every single ship that heads towards or from China 24/7. This is why I am a little sceptical of the "sea lanes" argument, as it isn't possible to protect all of them at the same time. That applies to all countries, not just China.
Sure, you are right China can not protect all it's mergant vessels all the time. I think in the beggining it is more a symbolic act for China. Later it can become a detterent to some opponents like: "we have the ability to strike back at your home".
China could aquire a capability of regional power projection. And increase it's influence through it's greater ability to assist in international "stability" missions farther from home.
Again it's a different thing if it's realy necessary to have that abilities in order to survive.
D
Deleted member 675
Guest
So in that case it is about power projection and symbolism, not protecting merchant shipping - as far as you are concerned, anyway.
FuManChu, are you serious? You seriously need to check and see how much threat China faces from America. Or go watch Lou Dobb on CNN and see who is America's number one enemy. South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Australia and anyone in Rimpac can expect America to protect them. There is a segment of America that believes China and America will eventually fight against each other (whether it's over natural resources or other things). We can safely say that America would not be jumping on the chance to help China if one of the navies in the sea lane to Middle East decides to block China. Therefore, we come to the most important fleet of all -> South Sea Fleet.
As previously discussed, SSF already has the most advanced equipments of the 3 fleets. It has 4 major ports instead of 3 in the other 2 fleets. It has 4 of the 7 large replenishment ships. It has 2 093s and possibly 094 once it joins service. It also has a number of SSKs and 052B/Cs. Generally, SSF can be broken down to two teams: one in charge of coastal defense consisting of the Ludas, Jianghus and Mings, the other one which is more power projecting consisting of 052B/Cs, 093, 051B, Jiangwei. So, in my mind, these are the tasks SSF needs to be prepared for.
1) be able to send a fleet against any of the AEAN countries along the sea lane and defeat the naval/aerial threat of any one country against energy shipment and shipments of raw material from Africa.
2) one of the navies in this route is India. Now, I don't expect this fleet to defeat IN at its backyard, but I do expect the carrier group sent from SSF to defeat any one or more carrier groups that can be deployed by IN in open waters (so this would affectively take land based aircraft out of the equation).
Of course, the other big threat is USN. But I'm disregarding USN, because it is simply too unrealistic to think that PLAN even in the more distance future can survive the assault of USN carrier groups in open water. So, I propose that SSF must be able to deploy fleet capable of defeating the navies of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. At the same time, it has to be stronger on its own than the entire Indian navy. If there is ever a shoot war near India, I'd expect Pakistani assets to come into play, but that is out of the realm of discussion.
So, it's clear that SSF needs imo 2 carriers, so it will be able to deploy a carrier group most of the times. And that most of the advanced attack subs and ballistic subs should go to this fleet. In addition, it will probably need multiple attack helo carriers carrying ASW helicopters. Since most of the current PLAN destroyers/frigate emphasize more of AAW and ASuW than ASW, most of the ASW tasks would be burdened on the attack subs and ASW helicopters. It probably needs around 2+ LPDs and 2+LHDs in addition to the 2 carriers. If we assume that 2 attack subs and 1 ballistic sub is needed per carrier group, then it will need 4+ SSNs and 2+ SSBNs. Finally, it will need a combination of 052 series and 054 series as escorts.
Anyway, that's just my really quickly thought out expectations.
As previously discussed, SSF already has the most advanced equipments of the 3 fleets. It has 4 major ports instead of 3 in the other 2 fleets. It has 4 of the 7 large replenishment ships. It has 2 093s and possibly 094 once it joins service. It also has a number of SSKs and 052B/Cs. Generally, SSF can be broken down to two teams: one in charge of coastal defense consisting of the Ludas, Jianghus and Mings, the other one which is more power projecting consisting of 052B/Cs, 093, 051B, Jiangwei. So, in my mind, these are the tasks SSF needs to be prepared for.
1) be able to send a fleet against any of the AEAN countries along the sea lane and defeat the naval/aerial threat of any one country against energy shipment and shipments of raw material from Africa.
2) one of the navies in this route is India. Now, I don't expect this fleet to defeat IN at its backyard, but I do expect the carrier group sent from SSF to defeat any one or more carrier groups that can be deployed by IN in open waters (so this would affectively take land based aircraft out of the equation).
Of course, the other big threat is USN. But I'm disregarding USN, because it is simply too unrealistic to think that PLAN even in the more distance future can survive the assault of USN carrier groups in open water. So, I propose that SSF must be able to deploy fleet capable of defeating the navies of Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. At the same time, it has to be stronger on its own than the entire Indian navy. If there is ever a shoot war near India, I'd expect Pakistani assets to come into play, but that is out of the realm of discussion.
So, it's clear that SSF needs imo 2 carriers, so it will be able to deploy a carrier group most of the times. And that most of the advanced attack subs and ballistic subs should go to this fleet. In addition, it will probably need multiple attack helo carriers carrying ASW helicopters. Since most of the current PLAN destroyers/frigate emphasize more of AAW and ASuW than ASW, most of the ASW tasks would be burdened on the attack subs and ASW helicopters. It probably needs around 2+ LPDs and 2+LHDs in addition to the 2 carriers. If we assume that 2 attack subs and 1 ballistic sub is needed per carrier group, then it will need 4+ SSNs and 2+ SSBNs. Finally, it will need a combination of 052 series and 054 series as escorts.
Anyway, that's just my really quickly thought out expectations.