China Flanker Thread II

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Blitzo

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Well, EW is sort of a black box that I think I'd get put on the naughty list for talking too in depth about, but I would agree that the overall PLA EW apparatus is more extensive, and more capable than our own. APG-81 is basically the best EA platform in our inventory at the moment (ALQ-99 is essentially a legacy system at this point), and it's great and all, but the PLA just hosts so much *more,* and their dedicated EW platforms are more capable of continuous standoff jamming than an F-35 ever will be.

I've always felt that Y-8G and now Y-9G are some of the PLA's most important aerial warfare platforms due to their role as standoff EW/ECM platforms, carrying big honking side arrays (and in the case of Y-9G that I assume to be AESAs), and I'm somewhat surprised that the US hadn't pursued a more modern standoff EW/ECM platform than the traditional EC-130H Compass Call until the EC-37B more recently.


That said, I think you're underselling the US EW capability somewhat (or perhaps overselling the PLA) -- the EA-18G is still the world's largest fleet of dedicated EW/EA/SEAD platforms with an AESA and inbuilt advanced ESM/ELINT, and able to be equipped with more capable EW pods to replace ALQ-99 "relatively" easily. And the sheer number of F-35s with APG-81s that the US operates (given the capability of the APG-81 itself) as well as other fighters equipped with modern AESAs, is the world's largest by a massive long shot.
 

Blitzo

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The reason we don't pursue those sorts of platforms is because TACAIR is really the only vector that we consider survivable in the threat environment which actually requires such comprehensive EMSO. If it's not the PRC, odds are our EW capabilities are sufficient to degrade the sensors in that nation's inventory. If it is the PRC, larger airframes capable of standoff EW are completely unsurvivable at the kinds of distances that effective EA necessitates. The PLA is sorta lucky in this regard, and their ability to create nearly completely sanitized airspace is extremely enviable in how it enables supporting airframes to operate.

Yes, that was my impression as well -- of course the issue with the PLA's standoff EW platforms is that they aren't really able to operate outside of Chinese airspace in a high intensity conflict.

Nah. On an individual case by case basis, I would agree with you. However, at a systemic level, in the actual threat environment we see - I hold that the PLA is a good deal more capable of generating EM effects with their inventory than we are.

Ah I see.
I think what you are describing is the way in which the US and PLA would be able to deploy in a combat environment, which I sort of agree with -- because US capabilities are limited by deployable air bases, carriers, and so on.
And you are also viewing US EW capabilities in terms of what sort of effects they can employ in that environment relative to the sort of ideal effects that US EW capabilities could employ to achieve ideal US military objectives in such a conflict.
In that way, sure, US EW capabilities are at a bit of a "shortfall".


But in terms of a "whole of military" point of view, I think the US is still quite a bit far ahead.
 

latenlazy

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The reason we don't pursue those sorts of platforms is because TACAIR is really the only vector that we consider survivable in the threat environment which actually requires such comprehensive EMSO. If it's not the PRC, odds are our EW capabilities are sufficient to degrade the sensors in that nation's inventory. If it is the PRC, larger airframes capable of standoff EW are completely unsurvivable at the kinds of distances that effective EA necessitates. The PLA is sorta lucky in this regard, and their ability to create nearly completely sanitized airspace is extremely enviable in how it enables supporting airframes to operate.

Nah. On an individual case by case basis, I would agree with you. However, at a systemic level, in the actual threat environment we see - I hold that the PLA is a good deal more capable of generating EM effects with their inventory than we are.

Growlers are great, and they do indeed have a very comprehensive ESM suite - but you must remember that there's only a single VAQ per CVW hosting only 4 airframes. This is just abjectly *not enough.* We're actually looking at either expanding VAQs or augmenting CVWs with an additional squadron for this reason - our modeling strongly suggests that any less than 8 airframes is practically useless. Additionally, the kind of operational tempo and "stand-in" time (i.e. how long a Growler can actually be operational and conducting EA against the PRC sensor apparatus) is severely limited by CSG standoff, airframe combat radius, and the lack of available supporting DCA. Thus, I don't consider it likely that a CVW would be generating more than ~9 to 12 EW sorties per ~24/hrs, arranged into ~3 "pulses" of 3 to 4 airframes (depending on availability) in support of strike operations. Those sorties would, as just mentioned, be facing such an extensive sensor apparatus that even NGJ will have a hard time making much of a dent (NGJ is super cool, but it's not a worldbeater - alq-249 as a whole is really only a "we are where we at least don't have an excuse to be behind this point" solution, but I don't think going into much more detail than that would be wise considering it's a quite opaque system), and ALQ-99 (which is again, very very much a legacy system) is effectively dead-weight. APG-81s are also very much tactical EW platforms, they're amazing radars and I love them very very much, but they're not capable of conducting anything other than fairly limited point-EA against FCR-band emitters (at least until Block 4, where they'll get some needed capability upgrades).

The proliferation of advanced sensors by the PLA makes the actual concentration of EW assets we're capable of generating utterly insufficient. The PLA's counter-air/sea sensor complex is simply too extensive, too redundant, and too well networked to do more than degrade relatively small parts of it by marginal amounts at any given time. Can we make it hurt a bit? Sure. Will it meaningfully prevent or degrade the PLA from conducting effective counter-air/sea operations? Not really.

In contrast, the PLA's own extensive EW capability *is* enough to seriously degrade the limited US sortie volume, the limited sensor apparatus on JP/TW, and to notably hamper US sensors from performing at their best. These are the systems PLA EW kit was designed for - this is not the case in reverse. I probably can't state exact figures, but we consider EW to be a significant factor in *especially* our initial ability to contest PLA operational fires at the beginning stages of any conflict, while we consider our own EW to be us fighting in the margins to hopefully punch small holes through which munitions or VLO airframes may be able to penetrate more effectively.
Reading a lot of your analysis the last few days, I feel like the general first principle takeaway being reinforced here is that as China attains parity in capabilities, the geography advantage between China and the US isn’t just significant, but tilts towards being decisive. And in a networked systems context where the emphasis in force structure revolves around multipliers, multiplier advantages heavily favor the local power over the forward projected power all else held equal, because whatever multiplier the forward projected power attains with a set of systems a local power that attains the same capabilities would benefit from the same multiplier but will be amplifying far bigger base factors (in such things as fire intensity, sortie rates, etc).
 

drowingfish

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J-16 seriously changed the game. I can't emphasize how much of a watershed moment it was in terms of indo-pacific threat assessment. US and AU (at least, as those are two nations I am familiar with) ended up significantly re-treading our tactical employment concepts as a result.
how would you rate the J-16 vs Su-35? both top of the line flankers, though it seems that Su-35 has not been performing great in Ukraine?
 

tphuang

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Hi @Patchwork_Chimera, it's great that you brought up j16d. I noticed that a lot of the America losing ew advantage type of articles came out last year around the same time j16d was getting publicly unveiled. While I am sure pla ew capabilities have been improving for a while now, was the addition of j16d something that caused a jolt in the Pentagon? Just curious about this, since we don't know a lot about it, except Chinese side saying it should be better than the current capabilities of growlers.
 

by78

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Apparently, PLAAF Xi'an Flight Academy now has J-11s (twin seater J-11BS).

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supersnoop

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Can't say it caused a "jolt" per-se, but we definitely weren't happy to see it in Taiwan's ADIZ lol. It was an expected capability that came a bit sooner than many anticipated (including myself if I'm being honest, I expected EW TACAIR to proliferate in the 2022-23 timeframe not as early as 2021). It's just another platform that we're begrudgingly watch the PLA field.

I believe the first public display was at the 2020 Zhuhai air show (that took place 2021). It took place in an ADIZ mission only a couple or so months later. I remember on the forum it was quite the surprise to see “operational” use so quickly.

ADIZ missions are quickly becoming a “proving ground” as we recently saw the Y-20U tanker as well.
 

tphuang

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I believe the first public display was at the 2020 Zhuhai air show (that took place 2021). It took place in an ADIZ mission only a couple or so months later. I remember on the forum it was quite the surprise to see “operational” use so quickly.

ADIZ missions are quickly becoming a “proving ground” as we recently saw the Y-20U tanker as well.
It does seem to me weird that not more people have realized that plaaf is using these adiz incursions as a way to realistically raise the level of training.

Given that they have so many j16s and other longer ranged aircraft, I would be surprised if they don't send more of them to Japanese adiz, especially around Okinawa going forward. The y8s already spend a lot of time there, but I don't think they have generated as many high tempo operations to Japan. It would be a good way for them to train with tankers.
 
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