China Flanker Thread II

[Deino]

Think we should know the answer to this one.

Indeed, we should … but do we really know?

 

[latenlazy]

Indeed, we should … but do we really know?

Well, we’ve all been at this long enough know that we never *really* know

 

[AndrewS]

Maybe the schedules don’t align. The AL31s were most likely swapped out when the engines reached the end of their service lives and needed to be replaced anyways. Which may not align with the desired timetable for a radar change.

Or maybe the PLA has decided it doesn’t need every single plane in the fleet to have the newest expensive AESA radars when they have co-operative engagement capabilities and plan to use J11A/B and J10As as PL15 missile rack extensions for J16s and J10Cs instead.

Or maybe they did upgrade the radar and just didn’t bother to change the external paint colour of the radome.

If the J-11A/B and J-10A were to serve as PL-15 missile rack extensions, it would be more beneficial for the J-20 rather than for J-16/J-10C.

But have we seen PL-15 missiles being carried by the J-11A/B or J-10A?

 

[AndrewS]

Most plausible theory indeed. That the original AL-31s being used on these first batch J-11B have reached around 15 years of service.

Even if there are spare AL-31s around to re-engine fighters, they may be kept for J-10A which may not be able to be integrated with WS-10 at all. Who knows.

As for CEC, well the PLA can CEC between a UAV and a Z-10 which they are happy to disclose. PLAN CEC is years old news, PLAAF CEC is expected although not directly confirmed. CEC here meaning one platform providing all the targeting information while another shoots and missile is not active is using the targeting from the separate platform. If Z-10 can do this with a WL or was it CH drone, wouldn't be surprising if even modernised J-11B should be able to with other more modern PLAAF platforms. After all the intention for J-16 + J-20 pairings is to pull off this very missile truck extension purpose.

If I look at the service lives, this is what I see

Su-27/Su-30: 6000 hours. That is 30 years @ 200 hours per year.
AL-31 engine: 3000 hours. So that would be 15 years before they need to be replaced.

So yes, 15 years is halfway through the airframe life and would be the logical time to install a WS-10 engine

 

[siegecrossbow]

If the J-11A/B and J-10A were to serve as PL-15 missile rack extensions, it would be more beneficial for the J-20 rather than for J-16/J-10C.

But have we seen PL-15 missiles being carried by the J-11A/B or J-10A?

It has been carried by J-11B.

 

[AndrewS]

Depends on whether J-11D lives or dies.

Let's assume that J-20 production is now running at 48 per year, as per the rumours.
In 5 years, there would be 340+
In 10 years, there would be 580+

It doesn't seem worth pursuing a non-stealthy air superiority fighter like a J-11D when you've got these sorts of J-20 numbers and potentially have to face off against a thousand opposing stealth fighters.

---

At the same time, there are already in service the following aircraft which we've seen carry PL-15s:
200+ J-10C
200+ J-11B
170+ J-16

If we assume just the J-16 acting as missile trucks carrying 8 PL-15 missiles each, that should be more than enough to support a fleet of J-20s. And when the J-16s aren't acting as PL-15 missile trucks, they can still perform in a strike, air superiority or CAP role. And with the J-16 in a strike role, there's an argument that the more are needed now. Plus in 10 years time, the first JH-7s will have reached 28 years and should be due for replacement.

So I can see a lower level of Flanker airframes being purchased in the future (12-24 per year), comprising a combination of the J-16/J-16D and navalised J-15 versions

 

[plawolf]

If the J-11A/B and J-10A were to serve as PL-15 missile rack extensions, it would be more beneficial for the J-20 rather than for J-16/J-10C.

But have we seen PL-15 missiles being carried by the J-11A/B or J-10A?

J20 missile caddy is what the dark sword loyal wingman drone is supposed to be for.

You can certainly use conventional fighters for that role, but there are going to be limitations and drawbacks to doing so as conventional fighters will show up on radar obviously.

 

[caohailiang]

It has been carried by J-11B.

do you mean B or BG?
i thought J11b only carries PL12

 

[siegecrossbow]

do you mean B or BG?
i thought J11b only carries PL12

No, plain J-11B. There was a photo of it a while back.

 

[Deino]

No, plain J-11B. There was a photo of it a while back.

View attachment 81841

In fact this an almost forgotten but incredible important image since it shows - at least by my understanding a standard operational J-11B assigned to a regular unit (here from the 89th Air Brigade) already several years ago carrying a PL-15.