A Bar Brother
Junior Member
There's the J-10 too. So 10 years if you add both the Flanker family and the J-10.
China Flanker Thread II
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There's the J-10 too. So 10 years if you add both the Flanker family and the J-10.
A Bar Brother
Junior Member
What are the current production rates for J-10, J-11B, JH-7/A and J-15?
i'd say close to 24 j11b, 28 j10 and 18ish jh7 per year. Though they seem to be built in batches not corresponding to years so certain year might see less and other year more than the aforementioned figures.
J15 seems fairly low, perhaps ten or a dozen per year but more than that isn't really needed. Next carrier isn't due until 2020 or so, so i expect j15 production to get paused for a few years.
J15 seems fairly low, perhaps ten or a dozen per year but more than that isn't really needed. Next carrier isn't due until 2020 or so, so i expect j15 production to get paused for a few years.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
They don't need to be able to station every J15 on the Liaoning.
I suspect they will got for around 3 times the max airwing for a stable naval carrier fixed wing force, at least to start with.
You will have one regiment deployed on the carrier, another doing high intensity training to prep for their own turn to deploy, and the third to act as reserves while pilots and crews get some time off after an intensive work up and long deployment.
As China gets more carriers, that ratio may drop, but they will still need additional new aircraft for the new carriers.
Assuming a max practical fighter fleet of 24 J15s per regiment, and 3 regiments total, we are looking at 72 aircraft just for starters.
I suspect they will do a surge and boost production to around 24 aircraft per year until they hit that number or close to it, so let's say 12 for the first two years on average, before they boost to 24 per year. That's 4 years before they finish those 72 aircraft, and we are looking at 2018/19 timeframe.
If another carrier is to be built around 2020, that's another 48 birds they are likely to need. So another year of full speed production, at which point they may transfer assets to build more J11s and J16s, so J15 production could be cut to 12 per year or less just to keep the talent pool sharp.
One of the benefits of the J15 is that it is based on the Flanker, so China could increase or decrease production rates but cutting back or ramping up production of other Flanker derivatives.
I don't think there will be hugely disproportionate number of j15s compared to carrier capacity. More pilots and ground crews can be trained on less aircraft by flying the planes more. So far only one base for new carrier air wing has been observed and 24 shelters have been built before construction stopped. While there may certainly be more j15 built in the coming few years, i don't think we'll be seeing more than 36, maaaybe 48 j15 (of all subvariants) for Liaoning and initial training.
Assuming we're at 15-20 now, and assuming 10 or 12 per year, totals for the above figures could be reached by mid 2016 or early 2017. Continuing production for a second carrier could then go on at the same pace and by end of 2020 there would be
something like 90 j15 available. For two carriers, one of the being liaoning with room for 24 j15 and another medium sized carrier (36 j15?) - that is quite enough.
Assuming we're at 15-20 now, and assuming 10 or 12 per year, totals for the above figures could be reached by mid 2016 or early 2017. Continuing production for a second carrier could then go on at the same pace and by end of 2020 there would be
something like 90 j15 available. For two carriers, one of the being liaoning with room for 24 j15 and another medium sized carrier (36 j15?) - that is quite enough.
Shenyang was producing 20ish j11b per year alongside j8fr production which went on until at least 2011, possibly 2012, produced in smaller numbers. My guess is that j11b/bs production capacity is being replaced with j16 capacity and j8 line has been removed and replaced with j15 capacity. Having 20ish (24?) j16 per year alongside ten or a dozen j15 per year seems to fit all the above nicely and uses up all of Shenyangs' capacity.
More will be known in a year or two when we see the dynamic of full j16 and j15 regiments standing up.
More will be known in a year or two when we see the dynamic of full j16 and j15 regiments standing up.
9th regiment? which one would that be? which division is it with?
There is 27th regiment, subordinated to 9th division. Scramble claims j7d are there now. Franco russe, when he was still active, claimed there were j8dh there up until around 2012 or so. Then they got transferred to 26th regiment and these old j7d came.
Yet google earth imagery of the base seems to point at only several j7 planes at any image. Plus there are helicopters and airliners there. I am not sure what sort of base it really is nowadays.
When j8 were part of 27th, there were images proving some 20 existing within it. But precise numbers are a mystery to me...
There is 27th regiment, subordinated to 9th division. Scramble claims j7d are there now. Franco russe, when he was still active, claimed there were j8dh there up until around 2012 or so. Then they got transferred to 26th regiment and these old j7d came.
Yet google earth imagery of the base seems to point at only several j7 planes at any image. Plus there are helicopters and airliners there. I am not sure what sort of base it really is nowadays.
When j8 were part of 27th, there were images proving some 20 existing within it. But precise numbers are a mystery to me...
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