China demographics thread.

[Deleted member 15949]

Imo the only possible immigration source is maybe Thais and overseas Chinese

The cultural/political differences are way too huge for anybody else.

They aren't.

It's not an avenue worth the effort. They should just focus on natalist policies, maybe even a back to rural policy

Immigration is cheaper and more effective and more immediate

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

They aren't.

Immigration is cheaper and more effective and more immediate

No. Gadget explained why it's impossible for China to resolve demographic crisis with immigration. Loosening the barrier for immigration may help just a little. It's like a needle in a haystack.

Immigration is no solution at all.

First of all, in the last five years alone, China's births dropped by about 8 million. The total births in all of Southeast Asia per year is only about 11 million. How are you going to get 70% of the childbearing women in Southeast Asia to move to China? You're not. You're talking orders of magnitude a far greater migration than the US/West has welcomed, and the US/West has a higher per capita GDP to attract migrants. Besides, Southeast Asian countries are mostly at replacement level births and in some cases below it already, they need those babies to support their own economies. Japan and South Korea are in even worse shape.

Second of all, even if you get hundreds of millions of new immigrants, if they assimilate into a Chinese culture where a TFR of 1 or lower is the norm, then you're just going to have the same problem again in a few years. China's problem isn't that it's total population is too small but that it's annual birth rate is too low and unstable.

Simply put, there is no substitute for stabilizing its TFR above 2 for China. IMO China has hardly scratched the surface on the pro-natalist measures that should be taken. For instance

* If a married couple under 30 buys a house, they get it 10% paid off. If they have one child within three years, it is 25% paid off, if they have two children within five years, it is 50% paid off, if they have three children within seven years, it is 75% paid off.

* Parents are subject to lower tax rates across the board, greater social security benefits, rent subsidies, and offered free 24 hour childcare. Young people with multiple siblings are offered preferential treatment in entrance to competitive colleges similar to how ethnic minorities receive them.

* Employers who employ a greater percentage of parents within their workforce are given massive tax breaks. The more children their employees have, the more tax breaks and subsidies they get. Further, all parental leave is compensated.

In short, it requires spending money, and a lot of it. Another means is promoting entertainment and TV shows where having multiple children is the norm. Basically, there is a lot you can do. People need to recognize that modern society is completely different than traditional society. At that time, having children was an asset because of child labor and the fact that children stayed with the family and became the family's labor force essentially, then took care of parents in old age. Now society has to transform again to sustain itself.

 

[Deleted member 15949]

No. Gadget explained why it's impossible for China to resolve demographic crisis with immigration. Loosening the barrier for immigration may help just a little. It's like a needle in a haystack.

I'm aware. The US has +1M immigrants a year which would be about a tenth of what you would need to solve the problem. It's helpful, policy is about marginal gains and thus should be pursued

 

[sndef888]

They aren't.

Immigration is cheaper and more effective and more immediate

Realistically, the only people who would migrate en masse to China (not rich expats) are from places poorer than China, like South Asia, Africa, Central Asia

Just based on what I've seen on Chinese socmed, they're not exactly going to be welcomed.

Maybe we'll see more of what we're seeing in southeast asia (bangladeshis working in less glamorous sectors, filipino domestic workers) but there is no way China grants them long term residence/citizenship like the US does

 

[Deleted member 15949]

Realistically, the only people who would migrate en masse to China (not rich expats) are from places poorer than China, like South Asia, Africa, Central Asia

Just based on what I've seen on Chinese socmed, they're not exactly going to be welcomed.

Maybe we'll see more of what we're seeing in southeast asia (bangladeshis working in less glamorous sectors, filipino domestic workers) but there is no way China grants them long term residence/citizenship like the US does

Political culture can be changed

 

[AssassinsMace]

China's one child policy wasn't really enforced because the population continued to grow. If everyone was actually forced to only have one child in those decades that passed, that would mean negative growth not positive. Even if they implemented a two-child policy people think it would balance out. It doesn't because it doesn't account for premature and accidental death.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Political culture can be changed

No it cannot leopard does not change its spot. Why introduce trouble, admitting people with different culture and race is only courting trouble and problem in the future. China was and never will be an immigrant country There are already billion people why you want more It boggle the mind.

China can selectively admit overseas, Chinese and East Asian maybe even South East Asian that's it

Look what happened to Spore because of western propaganda and brain washing they admit people that should not be there in first place

 

[OppositeDay]

Younger Chinese by and large do not want to work in factories. That part of the economy is going to shrink regardless of China's demographic trend. If China is worried about a labor shortage in more skilled jobs, then it can reform the education system. Currently only half of the students are admitted to high schools (which lead to university education), the rest are to vocation training school. It's just easier to reform the education system then to raise birth rate.

 

[sinophilia]

91% of the Chinese population is Han Chinese.
That means there are 126million who are an ethnic minority.
But each ethnic minority is outnumbered by 10 Han Chinese

Even if China implemented US levels of immigration (<20million per decade) - it wouldn't make much difference to China's ethnic composition.

Those ethnic minorities are overwhelmingly of the same race (East Asian) with most of the rest of a similar race (Southeast Asian).

That Indian stinking up every thread with his pseudo-elitism perched on high from a white majority country that has nothing in common with him should be ignored.

Also to the innocently incompetent suggesting that China should start importing even Southeast Asians, catastrophic move. Average IQ there is in the 80s and at best 90s for some in the mainland (Vietnam). Completely different cognitive *and* personality profile.

Of course the Indian suggests that AND Latin Americans. SleepyIndian would do well to realize they score very low at any level of scholastic achievement, wealth creation, participation at any level of science, technology, or engineering, are net takers over a lifetime from the government (take more of tax revenue than they pay in over a lifetime), have far higher crime rates when compared to East Asians, every government and nation they established has been extremely corrupt with low trust between groups, and so on, but according to him since they didn't completely collapse those states where they make up a large population then that's good enough.

What I really don't understand though is why people even bother with this guy, he and his opinions are as irrelevant as a grain of rice or a bag of farts. His real homeland (the one him and his ancestors and his racial relatives have existed in for all history) is emblematic of *every* problem that could possibly exist.

Among the most polluted, poorest, dumbest, corrupt people and country on Earth. His opinions are worse than useless, they are destructive and honestly most people would do best not to expose their innocence to his inherent savagery.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1423651238344859655

Who is this guy Yi Fuxian? any report to look into a data, because it doesn't look credible.

Michael Pettis is a hack.