Im only paying if im guaranteed a life time of good Chinese food.
China demographics thread.
- Thread starter gadgetcool5
- Start date
Not to resurrect an old topic, but total dependency ratio is a massively important factor when evaluating the one-child policy. People often focus on the negative long-term consequences, but it helped China achieve an extraordinarily low dependency ratio for the crucial 1980-2035 period of economic development. This allowed the country to direct productive forces (female labor, mainly) toward building up the economy during a time when raw numbers were needed most.
Long term, it will obviously come at a cost, and the 1CP was probably continued for too long. Still, China will be in a good position once population pressures really start ramping up in the 2040s. There are also other mediating factors, such as automation and coercive/expensive policy measures to boost fertility, but it's hard to predict how that will work out.
The economic cost of demographic decline is a little overstated, anyway, due to the very salient example of Japan, which saw an era of stagnation and eventual population decline begin in the 90s. This was caused by various issues, such as unsustainable financial bubbles, the plaza accords, Japanese institutional rigidity, and an age-based hierarchy. On top of this, they were already a very wealthy country -- meaning that there was simply not the room for productivity growth and profitable investment that you find in a developing economy.
The top national security decision makers in the US (such as Elbridge Colby, who has openly stated this) are operating under the assumption that this demographic impact in China will not affect its power until many decades after the competition for top dog is already over, and even then, only marginally so. Not enough to be material in determining any outcomes in this power competition, which is short to medium term. They are right to do so.
Is it realistic that a proposal to lower the working hours could pass right now? They're brainstorming some decent ideas right now, but I'm not sure if any of these proposals will make their way to becoming policy. And I don't think financial incentives will be too little to make any significant difference without bankrupting local governments burdened with COVID debts.
There is not much of COVID debt. It is more of over-reliance of land sales to support local government coffer and lack of oversight on spending that is causing local fiscal issues.
As for any proposal to lower the working hours is purely impractical, China doesn't have long working hours to begin with if the labor law is enforced strictly.
Direct lump sum payment, annual payment to certain age, childcare support, free kindergarten, free preschool are all good incentives to encourage births. Local government should implement such policies slowly and financially sustainably to drive up births rate. It is a long term process and there is no hurry to drastically increase births right away but more towards sustainable and duration birth increase. I am not worried about demographics in the short term as I do believe the rapid decrease of birth is temporary as birth decline should find it footing soon. It is the long term birth decline that is worrisome especially due to the seismic culture changes and women empowerment.
As for any proposal to lower the working hours is purely impractical, China doesn't have long working hours to begin with if the labor law is enforced strictly.
Direct lump sum payment, annual payment to certain age, childcare support, free kindergarten, free preschool are all good incentives to encourage births. Local government should implement such policies slowly and financially sustainably to drive up births rate. It is a long term process and there is no hurry to drastically increase births right away but more towards sustainable and duration birth increase. I am not worried about demographics in the short term as I do believe the rapid decrease of birth is temporary as birth decline should find it footing soon. It is the long term birth decline that is worrisome especially due to the seismic culture changes and women empowerment.
Doesn't China have a large rural population of like 200 million? And most of them being farmers and such? It's hard to believe that the birth rate is so low despite that, since rural populations and farmers almost always have higher birth rates compared to ubran areas. China needs to leverage those rural areas to start raising birth rates since it's going to be next to impossible for the urban areas. And she needs to do so soon, before those rural areas all age out or urbanize.
Well this in the old days, it made sense why people flocked to cities, energy, education, internet, jobs. But now with recent innovations, maybe China can slow down urbanization or even encourage child bearing couples to move back out to rural areas. Satellite internet, mircogrids powered by renewables, the rise of remote jobs and digitization means that you can live a pretty good life and have a good job even in the countryside.
Well this in the old days, it made sense why people flocked to cities, energy, education, internet, jobs. But now with recent innovations, maybe China can slow down urbanization or even encourage child bearing couples to move back out to rural areas. Satellite internet, mircogrids powered by renewables, the rise of remote jobs and digitization means that you can live a pretty good life and have a good job even in the countryside.
Rural folks have a lot of their fertility being constrained by the migrant worker phenomenon where their young go to work in cities year round. Can’t exactly have or take care of children when you’re living with room mates in small apartments in the city.
But a lot of this comes ultimately down to declining marriage rates; with so many people refusing to get married or having sky high standards, even if everyone who was married had three children, it wouldn’t solve the problem.
China population: city dangles free high school education for third child amid birth rate crisis
In Weifang, Shandong province (population 9.4 million), families will not have to pay tuition fees for the third child at high school, according to a policy issued by the city government on Tuesday.
The new rule, which some said impairs educational equality, will apply to babies born after May 31 last year, the government said.
China has nine years of compulsory education for free, followed by three years of paid high school tuition.
The measure is part of a series of incentives Weifang has introduced to stimulate births, including free insurance for major diseases until the third child is three years old, prolonged parental leave and government subsidies for buying property.
While and more generous leave benefits have been widely adopted, some local authorities have been more creative.
A day before Weifang’s announcement, Hangzhou in Zhejiang province (population 11.9 million) said families with more than one child will be exempt from a car plate lottery designed to curb traffic and pollution in many major Chinese cities.
In Zezhou county (population 480,000), Shanxi province, students born as the second or third child after January 30, 2013 will automatically have 10 extra points added to their total grades for high school entrance exams, according to a plan issued by the county government at the end of last year.
There was some criticism of the Weifang and Zezhou policies that they would increase educational anxiety. IMO however, these policies are certainly better than nothing and should be pursued. But lessening educational anxiety by ensuring that every child can get a decent education and a good job is *also* a necessary long term goal that has to be pursued at all levels.