In response to some pessimistic claims over the low birth rate as well as the aging of the population, Li Daokui, Mansfield Freeman Chair Professor of the Department of Finance of the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University, believes that there are a series of misunderstandings and misinterpretations in the economic circle and even broader society. Such views as "aging affects aggregate economic demand," "working-age population keeps decreasing" and "aging affects social innovation vitality" do not stand up to scrutiny, Li noted.
These misunderstandings arise because the society does not carefully distinguish between the concepts of total population and human resources. The core factor affecting the economic development of a country or a region is not the total population or the total number of young people, but the total number of active, healthy and skilled people who are willing to participate in social and economic activities, Li said.
The average life expectancy of Chinese society is constantly increasing, and the educational level of the population is constantly improving. The total amount of human resources is the sum of reserves taking into account population quality and future social labor time, the expert added.
The total potential of human resources depends specifically on two factors, the level of health and the level of education. Based on these two factors, Li's team measured the development trend of China's total human resources.
Studies by Li's team have shown that although the country's total population has reached its peak and the peak of total labor force participation has long passed, China's total human resources will continue to grow before 2040 and will remain stable from 2040 to 2050 thanks to increasingly levels of both health and education.
If 2020 is used as the base year and the total human resources are converted into population equivalent, compared with 1.4249 billion in 2020, the total human resources in the country will rise to 1.644 billion in 2050, an increase of about 15.4 percent. From 2021 to 2050, the average annual growth rate of the country's total human resources will reach 0.48 percent.
The studies estimate that if the country's human resources can be effectively promoted and fully utilized, the average growth potential of China's economy will reach 5.9 percent in 2021-2030, 4.9 percent in 2031-2040, and 4.1 percent in 2041-2050.
As China has proposed to basically realize socialist modernization by 2035, and to reach the level of moderately developed countries in terms of per capita income. Like reaching the level of Portugal, in fact, a growth rate of 4.61 percent is sufficient.
