China can and will achieve total air superiority over Taiwan

Violet Oboe

Junior Member
Raptoreyes, at first I was inclined to believe that your incredibly ignorant postings had a somewhat satirical character since assuming that you are an individual being stuck at least two (..if not more:() decades in the past would be quite bold indeed. Meanwhile I'm beginning to suppose just that...:D

I hope that your offensive and provocative comparison of the PRC with fascist regimes of a long bygone era (...may be you want even to escalate your insults: just draw some parallels with imperial Japan's military dictatorship!) was a single blunder. After all man shoud be able to learn from his mistakes...
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
What is the point of bringing up motivation? Was the ROCA motivated enough to stop the Red Army from taking over the mainland? Are you assuming that valor and commitment is a one way street and a monopoly to the Taiwanese side only? They were outsmarted outfought and outvalored plain and simple. You can go to the US Army college and find the open source documents pertaining to the battle fought in the Chinese civil war and see how the Nationalist Army lost them.

The Politburo's and Air Force will likely be a little bit more political than professional as the PRC's Politburo relies upon its armed forces and intelligence agencies to protect itself from its own populations, desire for change. Therefore much more strict adherence and obedience to authority is stressed and much less creative thinking on and off the battlefield is tolerated. The history of put highly political military forces against highly professional military forces has not been kind to the more political force of the two. This is been as much true when we compare the Spartans to the Persians as when we compare the Iraqi army against that of the United States in the first Gulf War.

This is another piece of nonsense that has been debunked in actual case situations from the various encounters with the PLA from the Korean War all the way to the clashes with the Vietnamese. Go check the history section of this forum for starters.

The Persians and the Spartans were neither political or professional. They are just Persians and Spartans, the former actually religiously tolerant---go check the Bible and find out who Queen Esther is while the latter were notorious slave drivers. If anything the Spartans were truly totalitarian, and the Greeks were certainly not religiously tolerant---ask the Jews again, they wrote that in their history of Judas Maccabeus. This is as far as I would go with discussing politics or the "human element" because in the history of warfare there is nothing pertaining that individual soldiers in "political" armies would fight with less valor and courage than "professional" armies as if it really meant anything to a Roman legion or a Mongol horde.

Now going back to the air warfare, and of army organization, I think you need to read up a lot. The PLA is not the Soviet Army and does not model or pattern itself with such. It's a very unique entity to itself and will take note of concepts from both West and the Russians, while adding their own ideas.

Hordes of aircraft, not. If you think air warfare is still fought WWII formation style, I guess you need to learn something. Modern air warfare will be about small unit skimishes, with four plane flights as the basic fighting formation. It is very likely that battles will be hit and run on both sides, like ongoing guerrilla battles. This is not the BoB. Its difficult to cram that many planes in a small corridor for both sides, so the PLAAF will try to disable what is left of the ROCAF air bases that has survived SRBM volley attacks while cutting off their communications and infrastructure through small, quick and fast attack with precision guided munitions and missiles. The theme is a quick decapitation.

Likely the main target is to kill the government heads that were pushing for independence, allowing for other factions to take over through a military coup. The ROC armed forces is still an important legacy of the Kuomingtang. This will withdraw the declaration of independence de jure, though it will maintain independence de facto, keeping the status quo.

And this one for Violet, I will warn you not to use the term ignorant or any provocative language. If you are to comment, comment with class.
 

zhouj

New Member
What is the point of bringing up motivation? Was the ROCA motivated enough to stop the Red Army from taking over the mainland? Are you assuming that valor and commitment is a one way street and a monopoly to the Taiwanese side only? They were outsmarted outfought and outvalored plain and simple. You can go to the US Army college and find the open source documents pertaining to the battle fought in the Chinese civil war and see how the Nationalist Army lost them.

While I agree with you in principle, I have to disagree with the specifics here. In 1949, the KMT was much different from what it is now; it was more corrupt than the Communists, systematically oppressing the rural residents (who then supported the Communists), and were generally worse in every regard except to the wealthy elites. Curiously, they happened to be the people who supported the KMT. People are motivated by their self-interest and will be motivated to fight and serve relative to how much their interests align with their side.

I think we can both agree that neither the Chinese nor the Taiwanese will be fighting for any sort of ideology. It's no longer about Communism or Capitalism. If anything, the only two real ideological forces in play in the modern world are nationalism and religion. An important observation is that most armies consist of middle or lower middle class individuals who are less educated than average; the reality is that in any market economy, if you have better opportunities, you'll take them.

Chinese nationalism has been on the rise for the last few decades and there is no doubt the CCP has been encouraging it in both China and the PLA. To say that the PLA is any less motivated than ROCA is a huge mistake. However, the situation in 1949 is different than the 2007 situation and they should be considered differently.



This is another piece of nonsense that has been debunked in actual case situations from the various encounters with the PLA from the Korean War all the way to the clashes with the Vietnamese. Go check the history section of this forum for starters.

While the CCP still relies on the secret police to suppress dissidents, the reality is that the PRC has become a pariah for Western NGOs. Break China and any regime can fall to "human rights activism." The radicals for democracy in China are the small vocal minority; yes, I'm sure a lot of people would love more personal freedom but most people are content with the gradual change we see now. Bloggers don't represent the the country; most people are conservative about change because revolutions threaten wealth whereas evolution is much safer.


The Persians and the Spartans were neither political or professional. They are just Persians and Spartans, the former actually religiously tolerant---go check the Bible and find out who Queen Esther is while the latter were notorious slave drivers. If anything the Spartans were truly totalitarian, and the Greeks were certainly not religiously tolerant---ask the Jews again, they wrote that in their history of Judas Maccabeus. This is as far as I would go with discussing politics or the "human element" because in the history of warfare there is nothing pertaining that individual soldiers in "political" armies would fight with less valor and courage than "professional" armies as if it really meant anything to a Roman legion or a Mongol horde.

Calling the Spartans non-professional is a semantical distinction at best; their entire society and economy was based on the idea of warfare and being a soldier was critical to their conception of being a citizen. Morale is a key part of military doctrine and motivation is part of it; an army motivated to fight will maintain higher performance and morale than one not. The US Army in Vietnam was utterly unmotivated to fight that war and you see the level of corruption, immorality, and the degradation of discipline. An army used for garrison duty and pacifying the population (especially in their homeland) will always experience a loss of discipline and morale.

Now going back to the air warfare, and of army organization, I think you need to read up a lot. The PLA is not the Soviet Army and does not model or pattern itself with such. It's a very unique entity to itself and will take note of concepts from both West and the Russians, while adding their own ideas.

Likely the main target is to kill the government heads that were pushing for independence, allowing for other factions to take over through a military coup. The ROC armed forces is still an important legacy of the Kuomingtang. This will withdraw the declaration of independence de jure, though it will maintain independence de facto, keeping the status quo.

I find it unlikely that the PRC would allow another faction to come to power that was not controlled by them. They would probably put in place a puppet government under a "one nation, two systems" plan like Hong Kong while covertly and gradually removing all autonomy. Although in all likelihood, China would be much less likely to accept the humiliating foreign intervention in domestic politics with Taiwan than with Hong Kong given the relative situations in the two scenarios.
 

kunmingren

Junior Member
Crobato is merely pointing out inconsistencies in the previous poster's logic, we shouldnt actually be nitpicking over ancient history or modern political landscape.

To me, it seems that the side has better strategic reserve and orgonization infastrucre will prevail over the air war, given that the tehnology between them are pretty much evenly matched. What i mean is that the side with more airfields, oil depots, radar stations, amunition piles will probably win. If you have more of something, you can always just fight a war of attrition.

It would seem that PLA will have the upper hand since they have domestic aviation and munition indutry to replace lost crafts and missile, they probably have a more secured sources of fuel, more air field and simply a bigger pool for potential pilots.

The question would seem to if the American can rapidly replace lost ships, airplanes, fuel and ammunition. I mean if China can simply wait till logistic becomes so much of a problem that they can't launch sorties, than having a unfavorable kill ratio is irrelevent.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
If you talk about depth and reserve, the US has this over China multiple times over. I mean just count how many F-16s and AEGIS destroyers they have for starters.
 

dh19440113

New Member
To me, it seems that the side has better strategic reserve and orgonization infastrucre will prevail over the air war, given that the tehnology between them are pretty much evenly matched. What i mean is that the side with more airfields, oil depots, radar stations, amunition piles will probably win. If you have more of something, you can always just fight a war of attrition.

It would seem that PLA will have the upper hand since they have domestic aviation and munition indutry to replace lost crafts and missile, they probably have a more secured sources of fuel, more air field and simply a bigger pool for potential pilots.

The question would seem to if the American can rapidly replace lost ships, airplanes, fuel and ammunition. I mean if China can simply wait till logistic becomes so much of a problem that they can't launch sorties, than having a unfavorable kill ratio is irrelevent.

China cannot afford to fight a long war of attrition with ROCA, It needs a quick victory within a few month to reduce the likelyhood of US participation and aid to ROCA. If the PLA manage to entrench the island with troops and defenses, then US participation will be less likely. The American citizens has no wish for another okinawa type war, America aid has also been used by ROCA as a mean to achieve its total independence, on top of that war with china will mean big losses in US corperate investment in china. However, if PLA isn't able to use its vast resource to achieve quick victory. Then, US will probably get involved and you know how that goes.

The carrier will play a big role, not only because of its 50 fighters on its deck, but a combined benefit of: a military base close to the action, a base for WZ-10 attack helicopter that can provide landing support, airfield for 50 fighter, and a large cargo vessel for the deployment of military resources close to the action.

PLA institutions of higher military education has created extensive program of study in the military power of the United States, these extensive courses can be a minor in itself. officer in training learn the command and control of us forces and study how flexability can contribute to battle success. New officers learn how to make critical decision without superior supervision. These students study how the us military operate and memorize every thing they are taught about the us and ROCA. How to fight US and ROCA is the main discipline they learn, PLA officers Study more about US military than annapolis, westpoint and colorado spring graduate study about PLA thats for sure.
 
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Nethappy

NO WAR PLS
VIP Professional
China cannot afford to fight a long war of attrition with ROCA, It needs a quick victory within a few month to reduce the likelyhood of US participation and aid to ROCA. If the PLA manage to entrench the island with troops and defenses, then US participation will be less likely. The American citizens has no wish for another okinawa type war, America aid has also been used by ROCA as a mean to achieve its total independence, on top of that war with china will mean big losses in US corperate investment in china. However, if PLA isn't able to use its vast resource to achieve quick victory. Then, US will probably get involved and you know how that goes.

dh19440113 a war between ROCA and PLA would mean more then just cooperation investment lost in both China for the US. China US dollar reserves could be use as a bargaining chip to possible stop or delay US intervence given current US military and economic situtaion.

We should leave the US out of this... because we don't if they really ever intervance.. anyway.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
We wish to refrain from talking about political and economic issues, and concentrate on technical, tactical and strategic issues.
 

Finn McCool

Captain
Registered Member
Dhl1944 was hovering around this point but never made, I've said it before and it is relevant now.

Everyone seems to think that a PLA attack on Taiwan would be a lighting fast, shock and awe, massive air-raid sort of affair. This is only partially true. If the CCP leadership has no reason to believe that the US will intervene, then this scenario is ruled out. All the PLA has to do to win is institute a submarine and air blockade over and around the island, make fighter sweeps and air raids over the island to try to get the ROCAF to come up and fight then wait for the fuel to run out over a period of a few weeks. They wouldn't even have to use J-10s or SU-30s. Force the ROCAF to chase J-7s. They don't have enough fuel to last very long at all. I am exaggerating a bit here; fuel is no the only factor in this situation. But it makes the point: without a credible threat of US intervention the PLA can isolate Taiwan and destroy the ROCA/AF/N at their leisure.

If the CCP has reason to believe that the US may interevene, then Taiwanese survival becomes a much greater possiblity, because the PLA must hurry up the entire operation to account for possible US action. Essentially they have to establish a beachead on Taiwan before the US can deploy very many units to the area. That means that they will have to attempt a crossing before the ROCA/AF/N is destroyed from the air/sea. They will still have fuel. It doesn't even matter if the US actually does intervene, by the time they get there the relevance of the ROCAF/N will be gone; they'll have either stopped the Chinese invasion and suffered huge casualties in the process (the odds are against them but they have a chance) or they will have been defeated and the PLA will have a beachead on Taiwan.
 
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