On top of that, China is also rapidly improving its SSBN fleet, soon will be adding Stealth strategic Bombers to its arsenal, and also working on its own ABM defences.
I would say China is spending its money well investing in improving the quality of its nuclear delivery systems rather than relying on numbers. At the end of the day, it’s the number of warheads you can hit the enemy with that matters. Having a million warheads is still meaningless if you have no reliable way to delivery them.
I 100% agree on China spending good money on nuclear delivery systems. For today's standards, China's nuclear delivery is still a work in progress. No point having nukes if you can't get them to the enemy. A good, modern and capable SSBN class + SLBM is a top top priority for China now. These would complement greatly the land-based ICBMs protected by the tunnel networks.
The Chinese ABM program also a work in progress, and its very quiet. I hope that there are some serious progress there that they are not telling everyone. Because man it is so needed right now against both the USA and India. Especially important to guard from any nuclear cheap shots from India, if it loses a border war with China.
I have a different opinion on the topic of the no. of warheads China needs to stockpile though.
Anyone who complains about China’s ‘small’ nuclear arsenal really need to check the actual science of just how many low yield nuclear detonations the earth can actually handle.
100 Hiroshima yield nuclear detonations over population centres would be enough to trigger a devastating nuclear winter.
On top of the 100 biggest cities in said country, a few dozen nukes targeting lakes, rivers and other major water sources would see far more die from radiation poisoning and thirst than probably what your 100 city busters can achieve. And that’s less than half of the minimum expected arsenal of China.
Beyond being a massive money drain, what use are another thousand nukes?
I recall there were a few epic debates on this thread about whether China should maintain just 300 warheads or expand that stockpile. If this debate had occurred just 2 years ago, I could still buy the idea of China sticking to 300 warheads for minimal deterrence. After seeing the US for the last 2 years, my argument is that 300 warheads is just simply not enough for minimal deterrence.
2020 is a wake up call for anyone still believing in Western benevolence and rationality. Covid-19 showed just how much the Western ruling classes truly cared about saving the lives of their average citizen. Their MSM even run campaigns to justify why they are right and China is wrong. Good 'Western values' that are knocked into our heads for decades like: objectivity, critical thinking, racial equality, rationality, and honesty. All so easily forgotten in just a span of a few months into 2020. So this idea that Western society, especially American society is rational and would fear a nuclear winter is beginning to look quite shaky. Both a deadly virus and nuclear fallout are practically invisible to the average person. If many don't mind a deadly virus spreading through their cities, why should they care about invisible nuclear fallout destroying their DNAs? Besides, prepper culture is gaining some traction in America. Making doomsday seem more 'survivable'.
Now is truly a critical and dangerous period for China. The sentiments of the Free World on China have gone from dislike to utter hatred. Now you have unqualified think tanks, religious nut jobs, and pure racists getting the ear of governments in the West, and in India. They don't mind nuclear genocide being perpetrated on China and the Chinese people. Especially with the prospect of a non-Caucasian nation potentially going to the top of the now-established Anglo-American world order.
The story of Russia today should be a lesson for China. Russia is in a different, yet similar conundrum with China. Russia once had 2 lines of defence to prevent its destruction from the West. First was its economy and geopolitical influence on Eurasia. Euro-Maidan 2014, the subsequent sanctions, and booting of Russia from G8 finally rendered this line irrelevant. The second line is Russia's 5000 warhead nuclear arsenal. That one is still holding strong and its the one best thing keeping Russia safe from the West. Without those nukes, NATO would already be launching an invasion of 'liberation' of Russia to plunder its wealth of minerals, resources, and assets.
China also have two similar lines of defence to prevent its destruction from the West. The first is of course its economy. Any massive disruption to China-Western trade is surely gonna hurt both sides massively and upset the global order. Problem is that, its already begun. The US, Australia, and India is definitely experimenting their decoupling from China with their respective trade wars. Say what you want about whether its justifiable or not. But there are growing voices saying that this is good, and that the pain is actually worth it. Then throw Covid-19 and the 'China-virus' campaign on top of it. Now this defensive line is really starting to erode. So China's next, and last line of defence is its military. Conventional war looks survivable, but the US ultimately has the upper hand in nuclear force. If USA decides to go nuclear with its massive 5000 warheads arsenal, vs China's 300 nuclear stockpile, nuclear war looks quite 'winnable' (we'll talk about what 'winning' means later). Add into that mix the many ABMs between USA and China, things are starting to look 'rosy' for America. So, this last line of defence to protect Chinese civilization is not looking solid at all.
In case anyone doesn't get it. My argument is that the USA is no longer a rational country. It has flouted, or walked away from every nuclear arms control treaty except the NPT. Under Bush, Obama, and now Trump. This trajectory will not change with Biden. China just cannot trust this post-2020 USA to be a rational actor. China's rise to be the no.1 economy in this world is now unstoppable, except for war. A war, that USA and Western powers must win at any cost if they want to maintain their hegemony. If they are mad enough, by nuclear holocaust if necessary. I must assert that nobody wins in a nuclear war. But when the dust settles, those who hurt the least from this nuclear war is going to call themselves the 'winner'. USA can be certain to call itself a 'winner' if it sends at least 1000 warheads to China first, and receives a maximum of only 300 warheads in exchange.
China should not wait for the day when America starts itching to push the button. Stop them in their tracks ASAP. The minimum deterrence must be updated accordingly. If China can give more hurt to USA than just a mere 300 warheads, that would give China more sensible MAD security, like Russia. Then every Chinese citizen can sleep easy, knowing that the USA would have to think twice before going for the button. The CCP mouthpiece, Global Times floated the idea of expanding China's nuclear stockpile to 1000 warheads. More would be better, but 1000 warheads is a good start. So it seems like the Chinese leadership is going to expand China's nuclear arsenal after all. Excellent.
