China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[ougoah]

Talked to another Chinese PhD student the other day. He said if Taiwan were to use its hypothetical nukes against China, blow up the Three Gorges Dam, or taking other military actions that cause millions of civilian deaths on the Mainland, the words "liberation" and "unification" would simply become "extermination."

Which is one reason out of many why Taiwan would not consider developing nukes. If China has threatened or ever threatens Taiwan with nukes, then I can understand but escalating from a much, much, much weaker position is hilarious a suggestion by whoever wants to make the claim.

Mainland invasion of Taiwan island without US assistance will almost certainly be successful. So it is up to Taiwanese leadership to decide whether a successful mainland invasion is going to end with Taiwan throwing some nukes at China (I doubt China will respond with nukes here*) and then having all the Taiwanese decision makers held accountable (certain death) and hopefully all those nukes intercepted OR go through with militarily forced reunification where most of Taiwan will remain intact and both sides suffer minimal losses in equipment, infrastructure, and lives.

Even if we assume American actors/directors and stooges within Taiwanese decision makers use the nuclear threat to hold mainland against invading Taiwan, the Taiwanese leadership has enough say and skin in the game to understand this is way too risky a move and will end with them punished and dead one way or any other way. It's just a matter of how destroyed do you want the island to end up as. Neither China side wants it destroyed! That's for sure otherwise mainland invasion would have happened (could still potentially if diplomatic means are totally exhausted and escalations happen).

* Mainland won't nuke Taiwan back if it gets nuked by Taiwan. It'll far more likely retaliate against the US if mainland gets devastated beyond a certain "acceptable" limit wherever that limit might be. Because the mainland would correctly understand any Taiwanese nukes would only exist and launched at the insistence of the US and stooges. On top of this it also makes no sense to nuke yourself because if Taiwanese nukes are flying, PLA has invaded Taiwan and it will be successful so since you already more or less own the island, why destroy everything on it that's worth a damn and make it unhabitable??! So surely CCP isn't stupid enough to blunder that way. It'll literally be PRC nuking what is essentially PRC at that point. What they'd want to do is nuke the actual instigators - USA, and kill the Taiwanese decision makers that have made such an outcome possible. This discourages those actions as already touched upon above.

 

[hashtagpls]

Taiwan and Japan getting encouragement to develop nukes is also hilariously stupid. Neither of these countries will want to do that for obvious reasons I can't even be bothered explaining. If think tanks honestly are writing about this, they are filled with underqualified morons. Anyway, there's good reason China and Russia have never assisted with nuclear or missile development for any strategic state or potential proxy. One good reason is because no one wants to rock the boat so violently that it could come back to bite them in the ass or at least burn many bridges with nations they don't have any interest in offending and threatening indirectly.

Given the conduct of this current USG administration, it would not surprise me if they actually did start pushing all these asian nations to start developing nukes; it fits their destructive MO of wanting to burn the place down if they can't have it.

Secondly, you have a cat lady in the President's office in taiwan; she has no stake in the future, only her ego for being remembered in history, and what better way to be remembered than the one who declared taiwan independence and/or martyrdom? Cat ladies like the "wuhan citizen reporter" have nothing going for them in life, no-one wants to fuck a baby into them so all they have to look forward to is a sterile existence of their corporate jobs. Small wonder they'd much rather choose martyrdom and death.

What i'm saying is that a confluence of
1) cat lady in taiwan
2) christian evangelists/race war white supremacists in the White House
means that a nuclear strategy event can't be ruled out.

 

[Xsizor]

Given the conduct of this current USG administration, it would not surprise me if they actually did start pushing all these asian nations to start developing nukes; it fits their destructive MO of wanting to burn the place down if they can't have it.

Secondly, you have a cat lady in the President's office in taiwan; she has no stake in the future, only her ego for being remembered in history, and what better way to be remembered than the one who declared taiwan independence and/or martyrdom? Cat ladies like the "wuhan citizen reporter" have nothing going for them in life, no-one wants to fuck a baby into them so all they have to look forward to is a sterile existence of their corporate jobs. Small wonder they'd much rather choose martyrdom and death.

What i'm saying is that a confluence of
1) cat lady in taiwan
2) christian evangelists/race war white supremacists in the White House
means that a nuclear strategy event can't be ruled out.

I see an opportunity for Sabotage here.
Nuclear weapons development can be bungled by inserting agents within to leak the material into the outside environment - enough to cause mass evacuation, panic and finally culminating in loss of political power.

Nuclear weapons are risky. Unless there is huge threat that mobilizes public support for them ( like in Israel, Pakistan etc) I don't think Taiwan or even Japan would get nukes ( even if offered).

The nation that ought to have them actually is South Korea. And they haven't touched on it even though they are very competitive in the civilian nuclear reactor market.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

France was not under "protection" of Germany during WW2. During WW2, France was invaded (since we're talking about during the war lol). Relations between the two normalised somewhat after WW1 and treaty of Versaille but such a thing never happened. At least nowhere near the degree of Japan and US relations.

Mexico already has decent relations with the US. Mexico will never take up any offer from anyone to help her develop warheads and delivery systems. This idea is hilarious. Would be like the US offering Kazakhstan nukes and missiles to hold only against China.

Japan -USA relations not like France - Germany relations AFTER the IIWW, but DURING of it.

Japan has no military/political independence.


Mexico doesn't need to accept foreign help to make a nuke, to get nuked/attacked by the USA, it is enough to start to think about to get it.

 

[Josh Luo]

Given the conduct of this current USG administration, it would not surprise me if they actually did start pushing all these asian nations to start developing nukes; it fits their destructive MO of wanting to burn the place down if they can't have it.

Secondly, you have a cat lady in the President's office in taiwan; she has no stake in the future, only her ego for being remembered in history, and what better way to be remembered than the one who declared taiwan independence and/or martyrdom? Cat ladies like the "wuhan citizen reporter" have nothing going for them in life, no-one wants to fuck a baby into them so all they have to look forward to is a sterile existence of their corporate jobs. Small wonder they'd much rather choose martyrdom and death.

What i'm saying is that a confluence of
1) cat lady in taiwan
2) christian evangelists/race war white supremacists in the White House
means that a nuclear strategy event can't be ruled out.

Think about Israel's nukes and Washington's willingness to turn a blind eye on it. It all has to do with lobbying power. Taiwanese lobbyists are second only to Israeli lobbyists in DC when it comes to foreign influence in U.S. politics.

 

[Jono]

none of Israel's neighbours is strong enough to challenge its decision to develop the Bomb.
but for Taiwan, it is different. Mainland China will simply not allow Taiwan to develop the Bomb, with or without US conniving.

 

[hashtagpls]

Think about Israel's nukes and Washington's willingness to turn a blind eye on it. It all has to do with lobbying power. Taiwanese lobbyists are second only to Israeli lobbyists in DC when it comes to foreign influence in U.S. politics.

Lobbyists can only do so much, and the taiwan lobby is no israel lobby; look at the relatively powerful and influential armenian lobby and they couldn't do shit when armenia was being kerb stomped.

The ASBM tests late last year against a moving naval target sent a message that anglo ships are fair game, if they want to get involved in Chinese Civil War 2: Taiwan Electric Boogaloo.

 

[reservior dogs]

There will not be nuclear weapons for Taiwan for the following reasons.

1. The U.S. did not want this initially, a nuclear armed Taiwan will no longer have the need to follow closely and obey everything the U.S. wanted and will also destabilize the Taiwan Strait.

2. Now that the U.S. may militarily lose the region to China, we may one day want to help Taiwan with nuclear arm, but that is no longer possible. Taiwan has been infiltrated at many levels by the mainland Chinese. Creating a nuclear weapon is not something you can do in your spare bedroom in a weekend. It involves a lot a people and a lot of construction, logistics and coordination. The start of this program, which would be many months from actually obtaining a bomb, will be met with a full on invasion. Those who initiate this program will likely meet a dark end. No one in their right mind will start one in Taiwan today.

3. Once you have bomb, you still will need to have a delivery mechanism. Developing a missile that will make it a meaningful nuclear threat will take many years.

The window has closed on a nuclearized Taiwan.

 

[AssassinsMace]

China could nuke Taiwan with little to no warning and it won't take much. They charge China will start the war. If that happens Taiwan's retaliatory nuke and conventional capability will be little to none. So to make Taiwan's nukes count, they would have to start the war. Are they going to have enough to stop China from a retaliatory strike on them? No. Taiwan is small. China can annihilate Taiwan from existence whether it's Taiwan or China that starts the war. Like I said in another thread a small country with nukes against China would be useless unless they used them first out of nowhere. So why risk that by having nukes? Either way Taiwan ceases to exist. Taiwanese are not in the business of sacrificing themselves so the world will go after China. They believe like all Asian allies of the US that Americans will be fighting and dying in their war for them. Do you think someone so selfish is going increase the risk to their own lives by possessing nukes when the US will do the job for them? They want the US and China to go at it and see who'll outlast the other and that's the side who Asia will suck up to. That's how the US's Asian allies think. You know why Asian countries like the US better than China? It's not because Americans are more moral and ethical than China. They know they can manipulate Americans into doing their bidding by exploiting things like American racism. All Asians because of nationalism know it's not as easy to manipulate other Asians than it is to manipulate Americans. How dumb are you to believe the US wanting you have nukes is for your own protection. No it's a sign the US isn't coming to your rescue and want you to do the deed so the US doesn't face a retaliatory strike from China.

 

[Nobonita Barua]

China could nuke Taiwan with little to no warning and it won't take much. They charge China will start the war. If that happens Taiwan's retaliatory nuke and conventional capability will be little to none. So to make Taiwan's nukes count, they would have to start the war. Are they going to have enough to stop China from a retaliatory strike on them? No. Taiwan is small. China can annihilate Taiwan from existence whether it's Taiwan or China that starts the war. Like I said in another thread a small country with nukes against China would be useless unless they used them first out of nowhere. So why risk that by having nukes? Either way Taiwan ceases to exist. Taiwanese are not in the business of sacrificing themselves so the world will go after China. They believe like all Asian allies of the US that Americans will be fighting and dying in their war for them. Do you think someone so selfish is going increase the risk to their own lives by possessing nukes when the US will do the job for them? They want the US and China to go at it and see who'll outlast the other and that's the side who Asia will suck up to. That's how the US's Asian allies think. You know why Asian countries like the US better than China? It's not because Americans are more moral and ethical than China. They know they can manipulate Americans into doing their bidding by exploiting things like American racism. All Asians because of nationalism know it's not as easy to manipulate other Asians than it is to manipulate Americans. How dumb are you to believe the US wanting you have nukes is for your own protection. No it's a sign the US isn't coming to your rescue and want you to do the deed so the US doesn't face a retaliatory strike from China.

Easy folks.

If China nukes Taiwan, nobody would be more happy than US.