China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[Blitzo]

This is where how the pro-US side taunts to China that they have to match the US in order to have a chance to win biting them back in the ass. This is the West putting up their defensive shields so they can feign ignorance and proclaim they don't know why China is all of the sudden building more nukes. It can't be anything they've done.... They brag about how the US has more allies... and China has to be able to knock them out of the game with more nukes. In nature for every action there's an equal and opposite reaction and they want to ignore that because they're a bunch of girl scouts, all spice and everything nice. It's not like they can claim China has more nukes than the innocent West. And remember the average American only recently discovered China is a nuclear power because they believed that if China ever got nukes, the Chinese would be using them left and right as soon as they got them. So Americans' conclusion is China doesn't have nukes because the world would be experiencing countries being nuked. Since that isn't happening that must mean China doesn't have any. China has had nukes since 1964. Over half a century China has had the bomb without ever using it on another country. The US once it got the bomb immediately used it on another country and still is the only country to this day to use a nuke against another country. That's how China should be talking to others about the US and the West and they'll be outraged at the truth being spoken when all they do is lie that they're innocent and responsible.

I've mentioned this before, but can you please insert some paragraph spacing so that your posts are readable?

I feel like I'm reading a gorilla warfare copypasta.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1597904991943290880

 

[Kalec]

Wait... how is China producing 200 warheads in just one year to 400+ warheads when their own generally agreed estimates over the past years is just 350 warheads?

Nah, 350 is FAS's estimation, Pentagon's estimation has always been "low-200" warheads. As here is the quotation from 2021 report.

The number of warheads on the PRC’s land-based ICBMs capable of threatening the United States is expected to grow to roughly 200 in the next five years.

Another thing I forget to mention is that 2022 report significantly increases estimation for ICBM, from 100 launchers & 150 missiles to 300 launchers & 300 missiles.

This change is likely due to expectation of missile increase per brigade instead of silo being operational as arm control nerds claims. IMO there are about 4-6 DF-41 brigades deployed or due upgrading with 8-10 remaining DF-31 brigades, totaling 13-14 mobile ICBM brigades.

The PRC is establishing additional nuclear units and increasing the number of launchers in mobile ICBM units from six to 12.

It is amusing that it takes Pentagon so long to acknowledge 12 ICBMs per brigade instead of 6. I mean each brigade has 6 battalions and each battalion has 2 companies, arm control nerds are still coping about only 6 per brigade. FYI Chinese source is even suggesting missile per brigades to increase to 18 ICBMs and 24 ICBMs in the future.

12 x 13 + 6 x 12 + 18 = 246

Possibly some DF-31 brigades are upgrading to 18 ICBMs hence the total ICBM estimation is around 300 instead of 250.

The PRC is also building more silos for DF-5 class ICBMs; increasing the number of brigades while simultaneously increasing the number of launchers per brigade – though there is currently no indication this project will approach the size or numbers of the solid propellant missile silos.

I have seen no evidence that PLARF increases the number of brigades for DF-5 though I am not sure whether there would 3 or 4 DF-5 brigades after reorganization. Increasing number of launchers per brigade is also expected, as IMO each DF-5 brigade will be equipped with 18 ICBMs similar to Titan II.

 

[bustead]

Wouldn't it make sense for DF-5 brigades to operate less missiles than DF-31 brigades? The liquid fueled DF-5s require more maintenance?

 

[Kalec]

For reference, Russia equips each mobile regiment with 9 TEL launchers and each silo regiment with 6 silo launchers except 735th Missile Regiment with 10 silos. So it is true that silo regiment operates less missiles than TEL regiment. But it is also true that each PLARF currently operate far less than how many missile they could.

I think foreign OSINT observers always over-estimate the nuclear capability of DF-26 by labeling every IRBM brigades as nuclear capable meanwhile only one DF-26 brigade is confirmed to have nuclear capability in reality. But they downplayed the deployment rate of DF-41 and suggesting PLARF is still conscripting new DF-31AG brigade instead of concentrating them into smaller number of brigades.

DF-31 perfectly fits into their "arm control narrative" which praises single warhead TEL and dislike silo launchers. Because single warhead TEL make itself undesirable for adversary to conduct counterforce strike and silo is vulnerable to first strike so they are "destabilizing factor" that faces a "use or lose" case.

IMO the most sensible procurement plan is to replace all DF-31 production with DF-41 and concentrate current arsenal of DF-31 to improve launcher/brigade rate. DF-31 will be gradually retired and DF-41 won't have major upgrade either so more decades to come with DF-41. It is so weird that they repeat their 2021 lines of "at least 2 DF-41 brigades" based on 2019 parade. So they are suggesting that China did nothing to produce more DF-41s for 3 years and spend sweet cash building 300+ empty silos. Does it even make sense to anyone I mean seriously.

 

[rambo54]

Nah, 350 is FAS's estimation, Pentagon's estimation has always been "low-200" warheads. As here is the quotation from 2021 report.


Another thing I forget to mention is that 2022 report significantly increases estimation for ICBM, from 100 launchers & 150 missiles to 300 launchers & 300 missiles.

This change is likely due to expectation of missile increase per brigade instead of silo being operational as arm control nerds claims. IMO there are about 4-6 DF-41 brigades deployed or due upgrading with 8-10 remaining DF-31 brigades, totaling 13-14 mobile ICBM brigades.



It is amusing that it takes Pentagon so long to acknowledge 12 ICBMs per brigade instead of 6. I mean each brigade has 6 battalions and each battalion has 2 companies, arm control nerds are still coping about only 6 per brigade. FYI Chinese source is even suggesting missile per brigades to increase to 18 ICBMs and 24 ICBMs in the future.

12 x 13 + 6 x 12 + 18 = 246

Possibly some DF-31 brigades are upgrading to 18 ICBMs hence the total ICBM estimation is around 300 instead of 250.



I have seen no evidence that PLARF increases the number of brigades for DF-5 though I am not sure whether there would 3 or 4 DF-5 brigades after reorganization. Increasing number of launchers per brigade is also expected, as IMO each DF-5 brigade will be equipped with 18 ICBMs similar to Titan II.

there are more than the traditional three DF-5 BGDs (661 / 631 / 633):
662 has become a DF-5 BGD (four of 12 silos operational) and there is the new 634 BGD unit which will operate 12 silos

 

[Michaelsinodef]

For reference, Russia equips each mobile regiment with 9 TEL launchers and each silo regiment with 6 silo launchers except 735th Missile Regiment with 10 silos. So it is true that silo regiment operates less missiles than TEL regiment. But it is also true that each PLARF currently operate far less than how many missile they could.

I think foreign OSINT observers always over-estimate the nuclear capability of DF-26 by labeling every IRBM brigades as nuclear capable meanwhile only one DF-26 brigade is confirmed to have nuclear capability in reality. But they downplayed the deployment rate of DF-41 and suggesting PLARF is still conscripting new DF-31AG brigade instead of concentrating them into smaller number of brigades.

DF-31 perfectly fits into their "arm control narrative" which praises single warhead TEL and dislike silo launchers. Because single warhead TEL make itself undesirable for adversary to conduct counterforce strike and silo is vulnerable to first strike so they are "destabilizing factor" that faces a "use or lose" case.

IMO the most sensible procurement plan is to replace all DF-31 production with DF-41 and concentrate current arsenal of DF-31 to improve launcher/brigade rate. DF-31 will be gradually retired and DF-41 won't have major upgrade either so more decades to come with DF-41. It is so weird that they repeat their 2021 lines of "at least 2 DF-41 brigades" based on 2019 parade. So they are suggesting that China did nothing to produce more DF-41s for 3 years and spend sweet cash building 300+ empty silos. Does it even make sense to anyone I mean seriously.

I don't remember who or exactly when, but I do believe that someone from the guancha team basically said that the authors/people producing these numbers of ICBMs are like sticking a finger in their ears while saying "can't hear anything, can only see and count TELs on parades, surely there's no more TELs than that" or something in that general gist.

In short, for people that do actually closely follow and watch the development of nuclear weapons in China, it's pretty safe to say that pentagon's low 200 number and their low reported TEL numbers have been wrong for quite a while.

I honestly suspect that the people at pentagon making the report probably knows as well, but might have some orders from leadership or the likes to have numbers at what they report or something like that.

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

I took a look back at that sentence from the 2021 report.

Nah, 350 is FAS's estimation, Pentagon's estimation has always been "low-200" warheads. As here is the quotation from 2021 report:

"The number of warheads on the PRC’s land-based ICBMs capable of threatening the United States is expected to grow to roughly 200 in the next five years."

The sentence mentioned that China would have 200 warheads fitted on land-based ICBMs capable of threatening the US in the next 5 years.

Where does it say that China has a grand total of 200+ warheads in 2021? You sure you quoted the correct sentence from the report?

 

[Kalec]

there are more than the traditional three DF-5 BGDs (661 / 631 / 633):
662 has become a DF-5 BGD (four of 12 silos operational) and there is the new 634 BGD unit which will operate 12 silos

From what I can tell, there are four batches of DF-5 silo production starting from 2017, respectively two batches in Henan with the remaining two in Northern Hunan and Southwestern Hunan. It makes sense with 5 BGDs/12 launcher deployment but I doubt they will become operational anytime soon since the newest DF-5 is yet to be tested. But they could go with old DF-5B anyway.

In short, for people that do actually closely follow and watch the development of nuclear weapons in China, it's pretty safe to say that pentagon's low 200 number and their low reported TEL numbers have been wrong for quite a while.

Their IRBM/MRBM estimation is bs as well. Everyone knows DF-26 has re-loading TEL, how is it possible that launcher count is equal to missile launcher if they have reloading vehicle.

I took a look back at that sentence from the 2021 report:

The sentence mentioned that China would have 200 warheads fitted on land-based ICBMs capable of threatening the US in the next 5 years.

Where does it say that China has a grand total of 200+ warheads in 2021?

Yes, and it is also because of their ICBM number count. It was 100 launchers/150 missiles in last year report and explosively increased to 300 launchers / 300 missiles in this year report. Also because Adm. Charles Richard said US-perceived Chinese nuclear arsenal has doubled within two years. Their current estimation is 400 warheads, which is double the size of their previous estimation of 200 warheads and that's why they perceived the nuclear arsenal doubled within only two years.

Richard said China has doubled its nuclear stockpile within two years, despite expectations it would take Beijing until the end of the decade to do so.

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They probably count only 8 TEL ICBMs as operational, each with 6 launchers with 6 reloaders and only 4 SSBNs as operational.

8 x 6 + 18 + 4 x 12 = 114 launchers hence 100/150 launchers/missiles.

But this year they have finally concluded that there are 12 launchers in each brigade & all of 13 TEL BGD is operational and addition of two SSBNs to fleet.

 

[clockwork]

This change is likely due to expectation of missile increase per brigade instead of silo being operational as arm control nerds claims.

Where's your evidence? Report doesn't seem to mention anything about mobile expansion to me, enough to justify that large an increase.