China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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windsclouds2030

Senior Member
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No, the idea of being forced to give up something one genuinely possesses is of order of magnitude greater existential threat to what is left than being forced to not seize what one does not actually possess.

So the US being forced to give up Texas and China being forced not to take Taiwan are totally different in terms of how much threat acquiescence poses to what each side has remaining. Therefore the rational willingness of each side to risk what is left to hold the line would be dramatically different.
The Taiwan issue is a product of the Cold War.
The losers of Chinese civil war fled to the island and occupied it with the help of the United States.
No matter what people on the island think, the island is always a part of China.

They live there doesn't mean Taiwan island belongs to them.


THE HISTORY OF TAIWAN ISLAND

The first known settlers in Taiwan are Austronesian tribal people thought to have come from modern day southern China.

The island first appears in Chinese records in 239 CE, when China sent an expeditionary force to explore -- a fact Beijing uses to back its territorial claim.

After a brief spell as a Dutch colony [of the Dutch East India Company or VOC - Vereenigde Oost Indische Compagnie] (1624-1661) Taiwan was administered by China's Qing Dynasty from 1683 to 1895, under Fujian Province administration. The Dutch colonial force was driven out by Zheng Chenggong, aka. Prince of Yanping (1624–1662), better known internationally by his Dutch-Romanised Hokkien honorific Koxinga or Coxinga.

Zheng Chenggong was a Chinese Ming loyalist who resisted the Qing conquest of China in the 17th century, fighting them on China's southeastern coast. In 1661, Koxinga defeated the Dutch outposts on Taiwan and established a dynasty, the House of Koxinga, which ruled part of the island as the Kingdom of Tungning from 1661 to 1683. The Dutch force relocated to the archipelago in the Southeastern Asia, what is today Indonesia.

From the 17th century, significant numbers of migrants started arriving from China, often fleeing turmoil or hardship. Most were Hoklo Chinese [Minnan / Southern Min or Hokkien people] from Fujian (old spelling: Fukien) Province or Hakka Chinese, largely from Guangdong (old spelling: Kwangtung, aka. Canton). The Taiwan island itself was administered by Fujian Province. The descendants of these two migrations now make up by far the largest population group.

The Minnan or Southern Min literally 'Southern Fujian language', or Banlam (Southern Min pronunciation), is a group of linguistically similar and historically related Sinitic languages that form a branch of Min Chinese spoken in Fujian (especially the Minnan region), most of Taiwan (many citizens are descendants of settlers from Fujian), Eastern Guangdong, Hainan, and Southern Zhejiang. The Minnan dialects are also spoken by descendants of emigrants from these areas in diaspora, most notably the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York City. It is the most populous branch of Min Chinese, spoken by an estimated 48 million people in ca. 2017–2018.

The Minnan or Southern Fujian region refers to the coastal region in Southern Fujian Province, China, which includes the prefecture-level cities of Xiamen, Quanzhou and Zhangzhou. The region accounts for 40 percent of the GDP of Fujian Province. It is the native homeland of the Hokkien people who speak the Hokkien language or Minnan language, a variety of Southern Min.

In 1895, following Japan's victory in the Imperial Japan's First Invasion of China, the Qing government had to cede Taiwan to Japan under the Treaty of Shimonoseki, or known as Treaty of Maguan by Chinese side, including the Diaoyu Islands (Japan calls it Senkaku Islands) and few other small islands under Taiwan control at that time. After World War Two, the Republic of China, one of the victors began ruling Taiwan, after Japan surrendered and relinquished control of territory it had taken from China.

However in the next few years, a civil war broke out in China and the leader at the time Chiang Kai-shek's troops were beaten back by the Communist armies under Mao Zedong (CPC - Communist Party of China). Chiang and the remnants of his Kuomintang (KMT) government fled to Taiwan in 1949. This group, referred to as "Mainland Chinese" and then making up 1.5 million people, dominated Taiwan's politics for many years -- even though they only account for 14% of the population. Taiwan's population is less than 24 million in 2021.

Relations between China and Taiwan started improving in the 1980s. China put forward a formula, known as "One Country, Two Systems", under which Taiwan would be given significant autonomy if it accepted Chinese reunification.

Taiwan rejected the offer, but it did relax rules on visits to and investment in China. In 1991, it also proclaimed the war with the People's Republic of China on the mainland China to be over.

There were also limited talks between the two sides' unofficial representatives, though Beijing's insistence that Taiwan's Republic of China (ROC) government is illegitimate, meant government-to-government meetings could not happen.

And in 2000, when Taiwan elected Chen Shui-bian as president, Beijing was alarmed. Chen had openly backed an independent Taiwan.

A year after Chen Shui-bian was re-elected in 2004, China under Hu Jintao reign passed a so-called ANTI-SECESSION LAW, stating China's right to use "non-peaceful means" against Taiwan if the island ever attempts to secede from China.

Chen was succeeded by Ma Ying-jeou, who, after taking office in 2008, sought to improve relations with China through economic agreements.

Eight years later, in 2016, Tsai Ing-wen was elected as the new leader in Taipei. She leads the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which leans towards eventual official independence from China.

China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province which it has vowed to retake, by force if necessary. But Taiwan's leaders say it is clearly much more than a province, arguing that it is a sovereign state.

Chiang Kai-shek's Republic of China (ROC) government, which fled the mainland to Taiwan in 1949, at first claimed to represent the whole of China, which it intended to re-occupy. It held China's seat on the United Nations Security Council and was recognised by many Western nations as the only Chinese government.

But in 1971, the UN switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing and the ROC government was forced out. Since then the number of countries that recognise the ROC government diplomatically has fallen drastically to only 15 out of the 193 member countries of the United Nations.

The 15 states and statelets that recognize Taiwan as the Republic of China (ROC) are (sorted by population): 1. Guatemala (18.2 million population in 2021); 2. Haiti (11.5 mn); 3. Honduras (10 mn); 4. Paraguay (7.2 mn); 5. Nicaragua (6.7 mn); 6. Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) (1.2 mn); 7. Belize (404,914); 8. Saint Lucia (184,400); 9. Saint Vincent And The Grenadines (111,263); 10. Marshall Islands (59,610); 11. Saint Kitts And Nevis (53,544); 12. Palau (18,169); 13. Tuvalu (11,931); 14. Nauru (10,876); 15. Vatican City (800)

Officially, the ruling DPP still favours eventual formal independence for Taiwan, while the KMT favours eventual re-unification.

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Taiwan is an island a bit larger than Maryland but with four times the inhabitants. When it was seized by Japan in 1895, it was a province of Qing China. Chiang Kai-shek’s Republic of China recovered it from Japan in 1945. When Chiang lost civil war in 1949, he fled to Taiwan.

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“Nations habitually mark the limits of their sovereignty with the graves of their warriors and the bones of those who have challenged them.”

~ Chas W. Freeman, Jr. (2018), a former diplomat of the U.S. for over 30 years

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plawolf

Lieutenant General
But there is absolutely no reason for Russia to participate unless Russia is also attacked.
Two main issues, firstly, given the close geographical proximity between Russia and China, the actual target of any incoming ICBMs will take some time to come through.

It will be a big ask for the Russians to just sit on their hands and wait while this is happening. You have to also bare in mind the extremely close proximity between Russia and NATO forward forces, on top of know US stealth capabilities and all this would present Russia with a serious ‘use them or loose them’ dilemma in terms of its strategic nuclear forces.

How could the Russians be sure that as they are stargazing at the potentially incoming ICBMs, swarms of nuclear tipped stealthy cruise missiles are not coming at them from NATO forces in Europe and/or US submarines sitting just off their coast?

If one was to play devils advocate, it would make perfect sense for the US to start WWIII with a mass ICBM-strike against China while watching Russia like a hawk. Any Russian half measures like putting its strategic forces on maximum alert would only serve to pinpoint them to the Americans for their stealthy cruise missile nuclear first strike against Russia.

The first strike against China could also be used to mask US ICBMs designed to air burst over China and Russia just in time to catch what is left of Russia’s missiles if it delayed until US nuclear cruise missiles started detonating all over Russia, taking out the bulk of its strategic forces on the ground before they can launch.

Secondly, any US mass launch against China will almost certainly result in a mass launch back by China. If and when the US is staring down the barrel of hundreds of ICBMs and thousands of warheads, do you think they are going to let Russia be left as the last man standing? Even if they did, would the Russians believe that? Remember that space and land based early warning on all sides will be toasted as soon as the first nukes start going off, so it’s not like they could expect to be able to wait and see how the chips fall. Doing so just makes it far more likely that they will get wiped before them even knew what was going on.

Hell, let’s not forget about all the SSBNs. If America and China take each other out, do you think all of America’s SSBNs are going to do a thorough investigation before deciding who to retaliate against? No chance. Standard failsafe orders will be enacted as soon as it is established that a mass nuclear strike has been conducted against their homeland, which essentially means they launch against everything and everyone since they will not have the means or time to figure out who did the deed, as they will have to expect to be attacked and killed at any second themselves under such circumstances.
 

Broccoli

Senior Member
Jeffrey Lewis mentiined many times that PRC is increasing num
maintenance is cheap compared to GDP and the cost of not maintaining that arsenal. But let's go with a bare minimum: Assuming their report is somewhat accurate, here's what I'd say the minimum arsenal actually is. This does not counting even a single 'new' 300x silos, and assumes they're all empty:

DF5A: 10x, 1x warhead each. 10x total. No change from their estimate.
DF5B: 10x, 5x warhead each, 50x total. No change from their estimate.
DF5C: 10x, 5x warhead each, 50x total. Replaces and recycles DF4, similar ratio as DF5A to B.
DF21L: 40x, 1x warhead each, 40x total. No change from their estimate.
DF26: 200x, 0.2x warhead each, 40x total. Replaces and recycles dumb bombs.
DF31s: 78x, 1x warhead each, 78x total. No change from their estimate.
DF41 (mobile): 24x, 4x warhead each, 96x total. 24x is from the estimated 2x TEL brigades in the report, pg. 445
DF41 (silo): 16x, 4x warhead each, 64x total.
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JL2: 72x, 1x warhead each, 72x total. No change from their estimate.

Total warheads: 500
Total intercontinental: 420

This is using their own sources as much as possible and is a minimum estimate. Essentially everything is backed by their own sources. I didn't do any guesswork here up except the following reasonable assumptions:

1. DF41 has 4x warheads each. See @Broccoli estimates above. This assumes no advance in design since the 90's.
2. DF41 is being actively deployed solely in the silos and TELs actively photographed and estimated from their sources.
3. DF5C has the exact same warhead numbers as DF5B, recycling DF4 materials at the same ratio as DF5A to DF5B.
4. DF26 uses official count of 200x, not their count of 100x, with same ratio as their estimate of 0.2x being non conventional.
5. DF4 and dumb bombs have been retired/recycled due to high maintenance cost and low capability, which they admit is likely.

Jeffrey Lewis estimated that modernized DF-31 warhead could weight around 300kg (based on discussions with american scientists). There was also slide few years ago from DNI report what showed that PRC is developing new warhead but didn't mention anything else about it.
 

escobar

Brigadier
Jeffrey Lewis mentiined many times that PRC is increasing num


Jeffrey Lewis estimated that modernized DF-31 warhead could weight around 300kg (based on discussions with american scientists). There was also slide few years ago from DNI report what showed that PRC is developing new warhead but didn't mention anything else about it.
DNI report link
 

weig2000

Captain
NATO's new strategy in Europe may include lower the nuclear threshold against Russia, because they're increasingly overmatched by Russia in conventional forces. Similar developments are occurring in the Asia-Pacific, while the balance of conventional power at least within and around the first island chain is shifting away from the US and its vassal states there. China needs to speed up its nuclear build-up. There will be plenty of opportunity to face off down the road, not just on Taiwan.

 

9dashline

Senior Member
Registered Member
Hell, let’s not forget about all the SSBNs. If America and China take each other out, do you think all of America’s SSBNs are going to do a thorough investigation before deciding who to retaliate against? No chance. Standard failsafe orders will be enacted as soon as it is established that a mass nuclear strike has been conducted against their homeland, which essentially means they launch against everything and everyone since they will not have the means or time to figure out who did the deed, as they will have to expect to be attacked and killed at any second themselves under such circumstances.
yes... and in fact it doesnt even have to be nuclear, as an example, if the imbalance was sufficient enough (say north america got hit by large asteriod or yosemite blew its lid) attribution wouldnt matter, US in that moment would launch at China and Russia simply to rebalance by leveling the playing field to even the odds a bit so the enemy doesnt get too far ahead, it wouldnt even matter that it was entirely natural disaster etc

If US does surprise full scale strike against China, there is no way Russia wont launch against US, so a first strike will be against both China and Russia, so Russia seeing anything will strike against US.
 

KenC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Video showing the legendary 816 underground nuclear weapon base near Chongqing that produces Plutonium 239. It closed in 1984. Looks like it has been converted in a museum that is opened for everyone to visit.

 

davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
The Taiwan issue is a product of the Cold War.
The losers of Chinese civil war fled to the island and occupied it with the help of the United States.
No matter what people on the island think, the island is always a part of China.

They live there doesn't mean Taiwan island belongs to them.


THE HISTORY OF TAIWAN ISLAND

The first known settlers in Taiwan are Austronesian tribal people thought to have come from modern day southern China.

The island first appears in Chinese records in 239 CE, when China sent an expeditionary force to explore -- a fact Beijing uses to back its territorial claim.

After a brief spell as a Dutch colony [of the Dutch East India Company or VOC - Vereenigde Oost Indische Compagnie] (1624-1661) Taiwan was administered by China's Qing Dynasty from 1683 to 1895, under Fujian Province administration. The Dutch colonial force was driven out by Zheng Chenggong, aka. Prince of Yanping (1624–1662), better known internationally by his Dutch-Romanised Hokkien honorific Koxinga or Coxinga.

Zheng Chenggong was a Chinese Ming loyalist who resisted the Qing conquest of China in the 17th century, fighting them on China's southeastern coast. In 1661, Koxinga defeated the Dutch outposts on Taiwan and established a dynasty, the House of Koxinga, which ruled part of the island as the Kingdom of Tungning from 1661 to 1683. The Dutch force relocated to the archipelago in the Southeastern Asia, what is today Indonesia.

From the 17th century, significant numbers of migrants started arriving from China, often fleeing turmoil or hardship. Most were Hoklo Chinese [Minnan / Southern Min or Hokkien people] from Fujian (old spelling: Fukien) Province or Hakka Chinese, largely from Guangdong (old spelling: Kwangtung, aka. Canton). The Taiwan island itself was administered by Fujian Province. The descendants of these two migrations now make up by far the largest population group.

The Minnan or Southern Min literally 'Southern Fujian language', or Banlam (Southern Min pronunciation), is a group of linguistically similar and historically related Sinitic languages that form a branch of Min Chinese spoken in Fujian (especially the Minnan region), most of Taiwan (many citizens are descendants of settlers from Fujian), Eastern Guangdong, Hainan, and Southern Zhejiang. The Minnan dialects are also spoken by descendants of emigrants from these areas in diaspora, most notably the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York City. It is the most populous branch of Min Chinese, spoken by an estimated 48 million people in ca. 2017–2018.

The Minnan or Southern Fujian region refers to the coastal region in Southern Fujian Province, China, which includes the prefecture-level cities of Xiamen, Quanzhou and Zhangzhou. The region accounts for 40 percent of the GDP of Fujian Province. It is the native homeland of the Hokkien people who speak the Hokkien language or Minnan language, a variety of Southern Min.

In 1895, following Japan's victory in the Imperial Japan's First Invasion of China, the Qing government had to cede Taiwan to Japan under the Treaty of Shimonoseki, or known as Treaty of Maguan by Chinese side, including the Diaoyu Islands (Japan calls it Senkaku Islands) and few other small islands under Taiwan control at that time. After World War Two, the Republic of China, one of the victors began ruling Taiwan, after Japan surrendered and relinquished control of territory it had taken from China.

However in the next few years, a civil war broke out in China and the leader at the time Chiang Kai-shek's troops were beaten back by the Communist armies under Mao Zedong (CPC - Communist Party of China). Chiang and the remnants of his Kuomintang (KMT) government fled to Taiwan in 1949. This group, referred to as "Mainland Chinese" and then making up 1.5 million people, dominated Taiwan's politics for many years -- even though they only account for 14% of the population. Taiwan's population is less than 24 million in 2021.

Relations between China and Taiwan started improving in the 1980s. China put forward a formula, known as "One Country, Two Systems", under which Taiwan would be given significant autonomy if it accepted Chinese reunification.

Taiwan rejected the offer, but it did relax rules on visits to and investment in China. In 1991, it also proclaimed the war with the People's Republic of China on the mainland China to be over.

There were also limited talks between the two sides' unofficial representatives, though Beijing's insistence that Taiwan's Republic of China (ROC) government is illegitimate, meant government-to-government meetings could not happen.

And in 2000, when Taiwan elected Chen Shui-bian as president, Beijing was alarmed. Chen had openly backed an independent Taiwan.

A year after Chen Shui-bian was re-elected in 2004, China under Hu Jintao reign passed a so-called ANTI-SECESSION LAW, stating China's right to use "non-peaceful means" against Taiwan if the island ever attempts to secede from China.

Chen was succeeded by Ma Ying-jeou, who, after taking office in 2008, sought to improve relations with China through economic agreements.

Eight years later, in 2016, Tsai Ing-wen was elected as the new leader in Taipei. She leads the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which leans towards eventual official independence from China.

China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province which it has vowed to retake, by force if necessary. But Taiwan's leaders say it is clearly much more than a province, arguing that it is a sovereign state.

Chiang Kai-shek's Republic of China (ROC) government, which fled the mainland to Taiwan in 1949, at first claimed to represent the whole of China, which it intended to re-occupy. It held China's seat on the United Nations Security Council and was recognised by many Western nations as the only Chinese government.

But in 1971, the UN switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing and the ROC government was forced out. Since then the number of countries that recognise the ROC government diplomatically has fallen drastically to only 15 out of the 193 member countries of the United Nations.

The 15 states and statelets that recognize Taiwan as the Republic of China (ROC) are (sorted by population): 1. Guatemala (18.2 million population in 2021); 2. Haiti (11.5 mn); 3. Honduras (10 mn); 4. Paraguay (7.2 mn); 5. Nicaragua (6.7 mn); 6. Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) (1.2 mn); 7. Belize (404,914); 8. Saint Lucia (184,400); 9. Saint Vincent And The Grenadines (111,263); 10. Marshall Islands (59,610); 11. Saint Kitts And Nevis (53,544); 12. Palau (18,169); 13. Tuvalu (11,931); 14. Nauru (10,876); 15. Vatican City (800)

Officially, the ruling DPP still favours eventual formal independence for Taiwan, while the KMT favours eventual re-unification.

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Taiwan is an island a bit larger than Maryland but with four times the inhabitants. When it was seized by Japan in 1895, it was a province of Qing China. Chiang Kai-shek’s Republic of China recovered it from Japan in 1945. When Chiang lost civil war in 1949, he fled to Taiwan.

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“Nations habitually mark the limits of their sovereignty with the graves of their warriors and the bones of those who have challenged them.”

~ Chas W. Freeman, Jr. (2018), a former diplomat of the U.S. for over 30 years

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Thanks for sharing this true interesting history. The US and its lackeys should take heed of history!
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Based on recent Australian rhetoric regarding Taiwan it may become necessary to direct additional resources towards extended deterrence.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
NATO's new strategy in Europe may include lower the nuclear threshold against Russia, because they're increasingly overmatched by Russia in conventional forces. Similar developments are occurring in the Asia-Pacific, while the balance of conventional power at least within and around the first island chain is shifting away from the US and its vassal states there. China needs to speed up its nuclear build-up. There will be plenty of opportunity to face off down the road, not just on Taiwan.

@weig2000 bro will there be a nuclear war? My view its all a bluff, okay conventional war will be disastrous for NATO especially if taken place in UKRAINE, this strategy is more to reassure its allies cause the US is over stretched with a two front war. With this assurance came with a price with the leashed being tightened to prevent any misadventure. Bro an insecure America need its allies to feel wanted but what more can it offer, most of the heavy lifting is already being done by the US. Commitment is a double edge sword, any mistake is a disaster in terms of credibility and the most important existence (nuclear Armageddon).
 
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