China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[AssassinsMace]

Yes the Indian logic like how they argued that because there were subsequent prototype versions of the FC-1, it was a failure because they didn't get it right the first time. Should the US's Mars rover program be labeled a failure because it wasn't successful on the first try? China got it right on the first try and also inserted an orbiter and a lander at the same time something that hasn't been done before. Because it's a failure does that mean there some international law that says China has to stop?

The China critics' circuits must be frying. China denied this is a nuclear capable hypersonic glide vehicle but the Chinese always lie so it must be true but they don't want to believe China is capable of such technological feats so it can't be true but when China says it's not, the opposite has to be the case...

 

[escobar]

So I've arranged the dates, here's what I see:

1. July 16th - reusable spacecraft test according to Zhao, this seems to be correct and is

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This test definitely did not circle the globe
2. July 27th - supposed first hypersonic weapon test, the one that really shocked US.
3. August 13th - supposed second hypersonic weapon test, the original date that FT first quoted when they broke the news a few days ago
4. September 4th - just to demonstrate how much test China does, this is another reusable spacecraft test.

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, probably test of Shenlong spaceplane.

So assuming FT didn't make everything up and the supposed weapon test on July 27th and August 13th did occur. Zhao seems to have deliberately bought up the spacecraft test on 16th of July to confuse the issue. It doesn't leave us any clearer picture of the nature of the 2 weapon tests other than from FT's description at least one test sounds like a FOBS tipped with HGV.

The 13th august test is the one with official report:

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If US say it is a hypersonic test that probably means it was DF-17

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1432318807515844611

 

[Annihilation98]

My suggestion of China's new hypersonic missile circling the pacific ocean at 21,000 km. No need to go through the arctic.

 

[Temstar]

My suggestion of China's new hypersonic missile circling the pacific ocean at 21,000 km. No need to go through the arctic.

View attachment 78377View attachment 78378

Yes a long time ago (1960s) China did have a plan for a missile like this called DF-6 "circumglobal missile" or "环球导弹". It called for a missile with more than 20,000km range, more range than was necessary to hit any part of the globe from any launch site yet still suborbital and not a FOBS. The idea was this ICBM could make use of routes other than shortest distance to target to avoid ABM. Like other wildly optimistic projects back in those days this idea was eventually shelved.

You could always reconfigure FOBS missiles for this type of use by just stacking more warheads on top. More payload naturally decreases the delta-V.

 

[windsclouds2030]

"A mainstream hypothesis about China’s nuclear build-up appears to be forming, one that US intel has been entertaining for some time: to provide cover for conventional scenarios. Basically; we can attack Taiwan and there’s nothing you can do about it unless you go all the way."

Basically, you can't continue to provoke China or cross China's red lines on Taiwan without risking a conventional war with China simply because you believe you have the escalation dominance backed by your superior nuclear weapon arsenal.

Hans Kristensen went further:

"Neither China nor US wants to go nuclear over Taiwan, so they’re piling on conventional capabilities. But either side losing conventionally would have to consider nuclear or fail domestically (Beijing) or internationally (Washington). That’s why the two sides MUST talk."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1451176141176414208

 

[Overbom]

That’s why the two sides MUST talk."

No need to "MUST talk". China will reunify with Taiwan. It is up to the US to accept that or decline to accept and face the consequences

Thats why all these "talks" are all hot air. China has made its position clear, decades ago

 

[windsclouds2030]

Well you can argue that the most recent Chinese inter-continental FOBS hypersonic glider test is a failure as well for missing the target by 30-40 km. Even 4.4 megaton warhead (DF-5A warhead's yield) could do little (besides blinding a few people and setting some fabrics on fire) to a target 30-40 km away from the epicenter.

And what

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said about this:

"The FT also reported that China has tested a new space capability with a hypersonic missile, citing sources. It said the missile missed its target by about more than 30 kilometers, yet the test showed that "China had made astounding progress on hypersonic weapons." But if Chinese authorities do not voluntarily release such top defense secrets, others can only speculate based on technical monitoring methods."

But... how could anyone be sure about whether it's a success or failure, and if fails, by how far it missed the target? The Chinese side said nothing about this, let alone announced any target.

Then imagine the uproar in the US media and think tanks if the Chinese side ever make any big announcement that the FOBS experiment was successful to reach target xyz by this range/CEP. Does any one really believe that China will ever make such big statement? Just think of the pros/cons of any such announcement.

 

[9dashline]

No meed to "MUST talk". China will reunify with Taiwan. It is up to the US to accept that or decline to accept and face the consequences

Thats why all these "talks" are all hot air. China has made its position clear, decades ago

So actually China has always had much more of a legit claim over TW than US ever had on Hawaii...

Now imagine if Chinese Pres was running around saying China would help Hawaii independence, including putting PLA troops on the islands and even basing missiles and nukes aimmed at America... unfathomable right?

The current situation is a humiliation to China that roots back to the weakness of the Qing dynasty... and not the fault of the CPC....

China must never back down again, even if it escalates to end of world scenarios then so be it....

 

[weig2000]

Hans Kristensen went further:

"Neither China nor US wants to go nuclear over Taiwan, so they’re piling on conventional capabilities. But either side losing conventionally would have to consider nuclear or fail domestically (Beijing) or internationally (Washington). That’s why the two sides MUST talk."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1451176141176414208

Some sectors of the US establishment wants to bluff China on Taiwan with nuclear threat (you can tell that even some of the US members at SDF are clearly under that influence). Why? Because they know it's very difficult, and increasingly unlikely, for the US to prevail in a conventional military conflict over a Taiwan contingency. It's very difficult for them to accept this reality psychologically. They're wielding, explicitly or implicitly, the nuclear card to either scare or bargain with China from the position of that weakness.

China must make it abundantly clear that there is no equal position on Taiwan between China and the US. Taiwan is NOT a piece of territory that must be negotiated between the US and China. China will reunify Taiwan peacefully or militarily with conventional force. China does not threat Taiwan or anyone with nuclear weapons. But China will escalate to any level should any third-party initiate nuclear attack against China because of Taiwan or other reasons. And nuclear threat will NOT deter China from reunifying Taiwan, peacefully or otherwise. If there would be a Cuban Missile Crisis of sort, Taiwan to China would be much more than Cuba to the US, simply because Taiwan is Chinese territory. Taiwan is for China to lose.

Any preparation should be based on the above position. The US should not hold any delusion on such matter.

 

[Overbom]

China must never back down again, even if it escalates to end of world scenarios then so be it....

And nuclear threat will NOT deter China from reunifying Taiwan, peacefully or otherwise. If there would be a Cuban Missile Crisis of sort, Taiwan would be much more than Cuba to China, simply because Taiwan is Chinese territory. Taiwan is for China to lose.

Well said. China can and SHOULD take the US (and its puppets) to the brink for Taiwan, if they insist on their delusions. Nothing else. Its stance should be no compromise will be accepted