at the very least, a credible Chinese FOBS would be a potent bargaining chip for China during any negotiation with the US. The Soviets leveraged the R36’s FOBS capability during arms control negotiations by offering f to trade it away in returning for the US IR detection and processing technologies which enhanced the effectiveness of Soviet early warning detection. The logic being if Soviet Union were to allow the US to become more secure from a Soviet first strike by forsaking FOBS, then the US should also help the Soviet Union become more secure from a US first strike by giving it technology to improve its early warning.
China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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at the very least, a credible Chinese FOBS would be a potent bargaining chip for China during any negotiation with the US. The Soviets leveraged the R36’s FOBS capability during arms control negotiations by offering f to trade it away in returning for the US IR detection and processing technologies which enhanced the effectiveness of Soviet early warning detection. The logic being if Soviet Union were to allow the US to become more secure from a Soviet first strike by forsaking FOBS, then the US should also help the Soviet Union become more secure from a US first strike by giving it technology to improve its early warning.
At the moment, the Chinese military don't have any way to reach targets in the continental USA with conventional strikes, whereas the US military can reach the Chinese equivalents. My guess is that each missile would cost $50 million.
So really high-value targets that come to mind are:
1. Aircraft carriers docked on land ($10+ Billion)
2. Submarine production facilities at Groton and Newport News
3. The F-35 factory at Fort Worth
etc etc
If China does develop and field a number of these missiles, I can't imagine what the US could realistically offer that would persuade China to give them up.
Indeed. A lot more if you don't limit yourself to military targets, basically anything that has great strategic value.
There is a long list of good value targets worth a theorytical $50 million missile, such as:
Military production factories
Docked ship
Industrial centers
ports/shipyards
energy production plants
Major gov administrative buildings
Major/important bridges
Space launch facilities (spaceports)
radar sites
Pentagon and other such military related buildings
Advanced universities (Harvard, MIY, Stanford etc)
Other advanced R&D labs
Oil/gas pipelines
Etc
The list of potential and useful targets are endless
This weapon system wont ever be traded away by China, because for the first time China will be able to credibly threaten distant enemies who like to needlessly provoke China thinking that they are safe due to being far away from it (Canada, Australia, Lithuania, Ukraine, UK, Sweden and whatever other "courageous" country")
prompt global strike number 2 that's an hegemonic weapon
The problem is whether the target will be hit at mach 20.
But what about the boost phase? THAAD radars on SK can track the launch.
You can launch on a southwards trajectory avoiding South Korea
If you assume 500kg for the vehicle and Mach 20, you end up with 12 Gigajoules of kinetic energy.
That is equivalent to 3 tonnes of TNT high explosive.
That would be the rough equivalent of a Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb which the USAF buys for $4 million
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