China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
China did built new spent fuel reprocessing plant in Jiuguan for fast breeder experimental reactor by extracting Pu
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Pinpointing China’s new plutonium reprocessing plant
By
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| May 5, 2020

A satellite image of China's demonstration plutonium reprocessing plant.
A satellite image of China's demonstration plutonium reprocessing plant.

Over the last decade, China has been actively pursuing plans to recycle its spent nuclear fuel. In 2010, it
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a pilot civilian plutonium reprocessing plant with a design capacity to produce about 50 metric tons of heavy metal per year at the Jiuquan nuclear complex in Gansu province (known as Plant 404). In July 2015, the China National Nuclear Corporation
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of a larger demonstration reprocessing plant at the Gansu Nuclear Technology Industrial Park in Jinta, Gansu Province, about 100 kilometers from the Jinquan pilot plant. The demonstration reprocessing plant, which has a planned capacity of 200 metric tons per year, is to be commissioned in 2025.

While there was news coverage of the groundbreaking ceremony of the Gansu Nuclear Technology Industrial Park, information on the location and construction progress has been scarce. Limited available information and satellite imagery, however, offer clues about the key facilities under construction.
On August 30, 2017, the head of the company responsible for building the demonstration plant
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the completion of the water supply system for the industrial park. The water pipeline begins at the Jiuquan Plant and ends at the demonstration plant in Jinta county, with a total length of 125 kilometers and elevation loss of 249 meters.

A dedicated highway to the demonstration plant started construction in July 2016 and was
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in October 2017 (ahead of the schedule of June 2020). The road starts at the intersection of Jiayuguan city’s orbital road and airport road (hosting the residence place for employees of Plant 404) and ends at the demonstration plant. The overall direction of the route is roughly from south to north, with a construction mileage of about 61 kilometers. The width of the subgrade is 12 meters.
Other Chinese sources mention the demonstration plant is several tens of kilometers northwest of Jinta city in Gansu province. Based on the above public information, the demonstration plant can be located as shown in Figure 1.
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Figure 1:Overview of China National Nuclear Corporation’s Gansu Nuclear Technology Industrial Park (the demonstration plant). Coordinates: 40°19’29.74″N 98°30’53.30″E. The demonstration plant is about 100 kilometers from the pilot plant (40°14’20.31″N 97°22’17.97″E), about 60 kilometers from Jiayuguan airport (39°50’49.56″N 98°21’47.57″E), and about 50 kilometers from Jinta town (39°59’6.03″N 98°54’16.34″E). Since 2006, workers at Plant 404 (the pilot plant) have resided at Jiayuguan city and have commuted to work from there. Some workers of the demonstration plant also reside at and commute from Jiayuguan. In fact, both the pilot and demonstration plants share the same group of leadership. Satellite image from December 30, 2016. Credit: Image Landsat/Copernicus and Google Earth.

On September 5, 2017, a construction company affiliated with the Chinese National Nuclear Corporation reported that it had
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four liquid natural gas storage tanks at the demonstration plant, providing a backup energy source. The four huge storage tanks can be clearly identified in the satellite images. This information further corroborates the site of the demonstration plant.
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Figure 2: China National Nuclear Corporation’s Gansu Nuclear Technology Industrial Park. Satellite image from August 29, 2019 (Coordinates: 40°19’29.74″N 98°30’53.30″E). Credit: Maxar Technologies and Google Earth.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
China self developed civilian reactor is connected to the grid 90% of all the components are domestically sourced
China's 1st nuclear power unit using Hualong One technology, a domestically developed third-generation reactor design, was connected to the grid on Friday.
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
One way to add some deterrence against a surprise first strike against China is to station some nukes and EMPs in orbit around the moon... if those get taken out well it aint a surprise anymore and China gets forewarning.. if they are left until after the surprise nuclear attack on China then they can head for their intended targets on earth...

China needs a modern deadhand/perimeter system, with AI it can be logic'ed at the nuclear endpoint level... imagine fully autonomous drones or fleets of unmanned subs carrying nukes ready to strike if it AI independantly assessed China got wiped out in a first strike

A true "smart bomb" of the ages
 
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antiterror13

Brigadier
China self developed civilian reactor is connected to the grid 90% of all the components are domestically sourced
China's 1st nuclear power unit using Hualong One technology, a domestically developed third-generation reactor design, was connected to the grid on Friday.

what 10% components that still use foreign source? hopefully not the core critical components
 

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
...
It's genuinely confusing to me, because as a Chinese person, the fact that China's nuclear deterrent policy was so smart was something I was proud of, it shows that the government cares more about improving the livelihood of it's citizens than on weapons that will never be used. The fact that I see so many people here advocating for apocalyptic levels of stockpile inflation is incomprehensible to me. Do you think China should go down the path that made Russia into a wreck, and America into the grotesque military-industrial cancer it is today? Please.

It was smart back then. The only missile China had which could hit the US was the DF-4. Even then it only had enough range to hit the Eastern Seaboard including California. Also China had relatively expensive ways to enrich U235. This meant building nukes was hugely expensive and a couple hundred nukes is enough to cover the targets the DF-4 could reach.

Gas centrifuge technology is crucial because it means that it takes like 100x less energy to enrich the U235 fuel compared with diffusion plants. This means it is much cheaper to make warheads. Also today China has the DF-41. It can hit anywhere in the US and is road mobile.
If you can hit more targets then you need more warheads. The calculus is as simple as that. With current technology it won't break the bank to make the warheads either. It does not need to be the ludicrous amount the US or Russia have. Just enough to hit all the primary targets.
Like a lot of people bandied about probably 1000 warheads would be enough.

Also, a lot of people say that, the Soviet Union was as rich as California, or that Russia is as rich as Spain, or whatever nonsense like that. Those ridiculous numbers always are GDP in US Dollars. Of course a country which did not trade much using dollars to begin with will have prices disconnected from the world market. While the US can simply print its way to incredible (and fake) GDP numbers. GDP in PPP is a lot more accurate.

Just think about it. Could California have built all of what the Soviets built? It makes no sense.

Another thing. The Soviets had gas centrifuge technology back then and the US did not. That is one reason why they rapidly increased their stockpile and even surpassed the US having started from much behind. It did not cost them as much as some people think. What did cost a lot of money was all the delivery systems for the nukes they had to develop, and all the issues they had with hypergolic rockets. They also had a hard time miniaturizing their warheads which meant they needed huge rockets and huge fission primers at first. That was the major cost about the nukes. But the expense wasn't just the nukes, it was also the conventional military side of things and the space program. Just the Energia rocket alone was hugely expensive to design and launch.
 
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totenchan

New Member
Registered Member
It was smart back then. The only missile China had which could hit the US was the DF-4. Even then it only had enough range to hit the Eastern Seaboard including California. Also China had relatively expensive ways to enrich U235. This meant building nukes was hugely expensive and a couple hundred nukes is enough to cover the targets the DF-4 could reach.

Gas centrifuge technology is crucial because it means that it takes like 100x less energy to enrich the U235 fuel compared with diffusion plants. This means it is much cheaper to make warheads. Also today China has the DF-41. It can hit anywhere in the US and is road mobile.
If you can hit more targets then you need more warheads. The calculus is as simple as that. With current technology it won't break the bank to make the warheads either. It does not need to be the ludicrous amount the US or Russia have. Just enough to hit all the primary targets.
Like a lot of people bandied about probably 1000 warheads would be enough.

Also, a lot of people say that, the Soviet Union was as rich as California, or that Russia is as rich as Spain, or whatever nonsense like that. Those ridiculous numbers always are GDP in US Dollars. Of course a country which did not trade much using dollars to begin with will have prices disconnected from the world market. While the US can simply print its way to incredible (and fake) GDP numbers. GDP in PPP is a lot more accurate.

Just think about it. Could California have built all of what the Soviets built? It makes no sense.

Another thing. The Soviets had gas centrifuge technology back then and the US did not. That is one reason why they rapidly increased their stockpile and even surpassed the US having started from much behind. It did not cost them as much as some people think. What did cost a lot of money was all the delivery systems for the nukes they had to develop, and all the issues they had with hypergolic rockets. They also had a hard time miniaturizing their warheads which meant they needed huge rockets and huge fission primers at first. That was the major cost about the nukes. But the expense wasn't just the nukes, it was also the conventional military side of things and the space program. Just the Energia rocket alone was hugely expensive to design and launch.
I don't understand what you are arguing for. Gross and almost disqualifying misunderstanding of how GDP is measured aside, are you trying to argue that China will not enter an arms race just by expanding it's stockpile? As long as the stockpile remains as small as can be justified to any other party, I'd agree with that. Are you arguing that there is no risk in expanding the stockpile, because there is no risk of an arms race? This is on it's face absurd, and you have provided no argument justifying that perspective. Or are you arguing that China can take an arms race and survive? It probably can. But in participating in an arms race, you are literally flushing resources into the drain. The military is supposed to serve the country, and should be proportional to that mission. Pushing for China to expand it's stockpile, without giving an actual argument as to why China's deterrent is not sufficient will get us nowhere. I think I've made it very clear why I believe that China's current stockpile is survivable and enough to serve as a deterrent, and the fact that there's people in this thread saying that China should expand it's stockpile to be enough to completely incinerate the planet is worrying, to say the least.
 

Xizor

Captain
Registered Member
Discussions on Chinese stockpiles and warhead numbers are very unproductive. China's standing hasn't eroded with whatever numbers they have at the moment. That means what they have has served the purpose.

With the huge economy and resources available, China's potential to accelerate warhead production is big ( might be even the biggest). An Arms race with China isn't going to achieve anything. Arms race back then ( Cold war) was a product of intense ideological confrontation and distrust ( understandable). There is no such ideological friction right now. Moreover, the world is entering a phase of severe internal / domestic pressures. US is the most famous. Western Europe and EU itself is facing internal pressures.

No one in their right mind wants even more issues.

I'm really content with the rumored 350-650 range. Apparently, China is content with that. No one with a brain is threatening China with Nuclear weapons. No one is doubting China's nuclear capabilities or delivery capabilities. Everybody is in agreement that China's delivery systems are only qualitatively improving.

What more do we want ?
 

W20

Junior Member
Registered Member
Underground Great Wall 1.0 (1985-1995) (?)
Underground Great Wall 2.0 (1995-2005) (?)

obviously I don't know, I'm speculating from bits of information, but I think that the Second Artillery has (ca. 2000-2024) the adequate means (UGW + DF-41) to fulfill its mission of deterrence
 

quantumlight

Junior Member
Registered Member
Underground Great Wall 1.0 (1985-1995) (?)
Underground Great Wall 2.0 (1995-2005) (?)

obviously I don't know, I'm speculating from bits of information, but I think that the Second Artillery has (ca. 2000-2024) the adequate means (UGW + DF-41) to fulfill its mission of deterrence
What is Underground Great Wall?
Nuke shelter?

China needs automated AI deadhand perimeter system that uses AI to detect if China got wiped out and then strike back even if Chinese leaders taken out or refuse to return fire

No point in such a system if you only have 300 nukes.. thats like buying a automatic rifle but only have one round of bullet
 

W20

Junior Member
Registered Member
Underground Great Wall 3.0 (2005-2015) (?)

"The programme (Radar OTH) emerged into the public spotlight on Tuesday when its lead scientist, Liu Yongtan, a professor with the department of electric and information engineering at Harbin Institute of Technology, received China’s top science award from President Xi Jinping at a national ceremony.

Another military scientist, Qian Qihu, was also honoured at the event in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Tuesday for his work on underground nuclear shelter facilities."

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