China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread


shanlung

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not that hoary numbers of 300 odd nukes for China.
And that Chinese dont have enough missiles and need to depend on Russia.
China got more than enough thermo nukes and more than enough missiles to make future tardigrades very happy.

How about this to refresh your memories, or for you all to mock and laugh at?

 

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
According to FAST there are at least 4 brigade of DF 26 with at least 80 launcher and 160 missiles with one reload
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

DF-26 Sightings Elsewhere

As mentioned above, China stood up its first DF-26 unit in 2018.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
from the activation ceremony shows 24 trucks parked under a temporary cover: 18 DF-26 TELs and 4 support vehicles. If each brigade has 18 launchers, then the 80 launchers reported by the Pentagon would be sufficient for four brigades. Not all have become operational yet but DF-26s are beginning to appear at various sites across China: Xinyang (Henan), Qingzhou (Shandong), Dengshahe (Liaoning), Korla (Xinjiang), possibly Jinhua (Anhui), and the large training area at Jilantai (Inner Mongolia).

The standing up of the first DF-26 brigade at Xinyang in April 2018 was
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
on Chinese news media with pictures and videos from the ceremony. But even before that, in January 2018, DF-26 launchers showed up at the field training site of the 651st Brigade near Dengshahe northeast of Dalian (Liaoning).

Then, in January 2019, Chinese media
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that DF-26s had carried out an exercise in the “Northwest China’s plateau and desert areas.” The operation was later
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
to the large new training area west of Jilantai (Inner Mongolia), where they
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in April-May 2019 together with DF-41s, DF-31AGs, and DF-17s before being shipped to Beijing for the parade in September 2019.

DF-26 training at Jilantai has been a favorite propaganda tool for the Chinese government with several test-launches shown on various news media outlets (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
). A propaganda documentary jointly produced by the Political Bureau of the Central Military Commission and the PLA News and Communication Center and broadcast by CCTV by the end of 2019 included a brief clip showing a DF-26 launch. The launch site is geolocated in the figure below:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Geolocation of DF-26 test launch at Jilantai training field. Click on image to view full size.
During those months, DF-26 launchers were also seen operating at the 646 Brigade base in Korla (Ku’erle) in the Xinjiang province in western China. The first launcher was seen in April and two more in August 2019 (see image below).

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
DF-26 launchers at Korla missile base. Click on image to view full size.
DF-26 Production And Numbers

The Pentagon estimated in 2019 that China had fielded up to 80 DF-26 launchers. Not all of those are fully operationally deployed; some brigades are still being equipped. Noted China military expert Mark Stokes
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
maybe two or three DF-26 brigades a year ago, each with 6-12 launchers. So the display of 18 launchers at Xinyang and Qingzhou is obviously interesting: did it include 6-12 launchers from a second brigade or will DF-26 brigades have more launchers?

Eighteen launchers were also the number
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
at Jilantai.

DF-26 launchers are produced at a factory near Fangshan in the outskirt of Beijing. The factory has been expanded significantly during the past decade with several large vehicle assembly halls added. The factory also appears to be involved in the production of DF-21 MRBM launchers as well as various air-defense systems. The main parking area for DF-26 launchers is in the middle of the southern end of the complex (see image below).
 

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
According to FAST there are at least 4 brigade of DF 26 with at least 80 launcher and 160 missiles with one reload
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

DF-26 Sightings Elsewhere

As mentioned above, China stood up its first DF-26 unit in 2018.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
from the activation ceremony shows 24 trucks parked under a temporary cover: 18 DF-26 TELs and 4 support vehicles. If each brigade has 18 launchers, then the 80 launchers reported by the Pentagon would be sufficient for four brigades. Not all have become operational yet but DF-26s are beginning to appear at various sites across China: Xinyang (Henan), Qingzhou (Shandong), Dengshahe (Liaoning), Korla (Xinjiang), possibly Jinhua (Anhui), and the large training area at Jilantai (Inner Mongolia).

The standing up of the first DF-26 brigade at Xinyang in April 2018 was
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
on Chinese news media with pictures and videos from the ceremony. But even before that, in January 2018, DF-26 launchers showed up at the field training site of the 651st Brigade near Dengshahe northeast of Dalian (Liaoning).

Then, in January 2019, Chinese media
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
that DF-26s had carried out an exercise in the “Northwest China’s plateau and desert areas.” The operation was later
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
to the large new training area west of Jilantai (Inner Mongolia), where they
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in April-May 2019 together with DF-41s, DF-31AGs, and DF-17s before being shipped to Beijing for the parade in September 2019.

DF-26 training at Jilantai has been a favorite propaganda tool for the Chinese government with several test-launches shown on various news media outlets (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
). A propaganda documentary jointly produced by the Political Bureau of the Central Military Commission and the PLA News and Communication Center and broadcast by CCTV by the end of 2019 included a brief clip showing a DF-26 launch. The launch site is geolocated in the figure below:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Geolocation of DF-26 test launch at Jilantai training field. Click on image to view full size.
During those months, DF-26 launchers were also seen operating at the 646 Brigade base in Korla (Ku’erle) in the Xinjiang province in western China. The first launcher was seen in April and two more in August 2019 (see image below).

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
DF-26 launchers at Korla missile base. Click on image to view full size.
DF-26 Production And Numbers

The Pentagon estimated in 2019 that China had fielded up to 80 DF-26 launchers. Not all of those are fully operationally deployed; some brigades are still being equipped. Noted China military expert Mark Stokes
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
maybe two or three DF-26 brigades a year ago, each with 6-12 launchers. So the display of 18 launchers at Xinyang and Qingzhou is obviously interesting: did it include 6-12 launchers from a second brigade or will DF-26 brigades have more launchers?

Eighteen launchers were also the number
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
at Jilantai.

DF-26 launchers are produced at a factory near Fangshan in the outskirt of Beijing. The factory has been expanded significantly during the past decade with several large vehicle assembly halls added. The factory also appears to be involved in the production of DF-21 MRBM launchers as well as various air-defense systems. The main parking area for DF-26 launchers is in the middle of the southern end of the complex (see image below).
Wow, what a good deal the author is offering China.

The author, funded mainly by US organizations (see credit at the end of article), put the blame of Russian violation of the INF (US accusation which Russia denied) squarely on China, and proposed that China should :

" And although China is unlikely to join US-Russian strategic agreements in the foreseeable future, Beijing should already now begin to develop options for what it could offer and what it would want in return if joining such agreements in the future. This could include articulating which US (and Indian) capabilities China is most concerned about and what Beijing would offer in return for limits on them. As a goodwill gesture, China could also offer unilateral limits on its INF capabilities in return for the US and Russia not deploying new INF systems in the region. Information and limits on the dual-capable DF-26 would be a good start. "

China should offer all these concessions and US does not have to give up a single thing. What a deal !
 

ZeEa5KPul

Junior Member
Registered Member
Wow, what a good deal the author is offering China.

The author, funded mainly by US organizations (see credit at the end of article), proposed that China should :

" And although China is unlikely to join US-Russian strategic agreements in the foreseeable future, Beijing should already now begin to develop options for what it could offer and what it would want in return if joining such agreements in the future. This could include articulating which US (and Indian) capabilities China is most concerned about and what Beijing would offer in return for limits on them. As a goodwill gesture, China could also offer unilateral limits on its INF capabilities in return for the US and Russia not deploying new INF systems in the region. Information and limits on the dual-capable DF-26 would be a good start. "

China should offer all these concessions and US does not have to give up a single thing. What a deal !
Incidentally, this is the guy that created the meme that China has fewer than 300 warheads. Since the DF-41 makes his theory into Swiss cheese, he has to claim ridiculous BS like
Although there are many rumors that the DF-41 will carry 10 MIRV, that is probably exaggerated. The objective of Chinese nuclear strategy is to ensure a secure retaliatory deterrent and penetrate US missile defenses, not to maximize the number of warheads, so the number of MIRV will likely be lower, perhaps three per missile.
Yes, China will sacrifice the payload budget of seven nuclear warheads to put in more mylar balloons. Absolutely laughable.
 

Rettam Stacf

Junior Member
Registered Member
I for one do believe that China very likely has fewer than 300 warheads.

As a country committing to no-first-strike principle, China would likely build a lot of mobile launchers moving around the country, with only a few with warheads, just to neutralize the adversary's ability to find, track and destroy all the launchers, thus ensuring survivability of some launchers with warheads for counter strike.
 
I for one do believe that China very likely has fewer than 300 warheads.

As a country committing to no-first-strike principle, China would likely build a lot of mobile launchers moving around the country, with only a few with warheads, just to neutralize the adversary's ability to find, track and destroy all the launchers, thus ensuring survivability of some launchers with warheads for counter strike.

If you were Xi and you knew that you are surrounded by very powerful countries and one of them are super power with very advanced military power and ~10,000 warheads and very aggressive to you. And you are almost as rich/big as that super power .. would you be stupid enough to have just 3% of warhead of that aggressive country? And you have more than enough resources to have much more modern warheads.

So by your logic, China building ICBM, SSBN with many many potential warheads and only have 300 warheads ... I don't think China is that stupid. For your info ... one DF-41 can carry 12 MIRV ... perhaps just for a show? o_O
 

abc123

Junior Member
Registered Member
How about providing China with more weapons grade fissile materials in which China is reportedIy only have about 14 tons of HEU and 2.9 tons of plutonium. I don't if that possible or not, but the collapse of start treaty and the resumption of full on cold war might make it plausible
That's not a small amount. I'm not an expert, but I think it's enough for about 700 warheads.
 

caohailiang

New Member
Registered Member
Editor-in-Chief of Global Times, today made a post on WeiBo saying China should stop arguing internally and start asap building at 1000 additional nuclear warheads with proper vehicle such as df41. There are several big-Vs including a professor in arms control from RenMin University disputing this.
I think Chinese nuclear weapon (and no-first-use policy) is probably strong enough to deter a massive preemptive strike, but not strong enough to make other super power avoid escalatory actions in regional conflict, including large scale bombardment of mainland targets or even using low-yield tactic nuclear weapon.
and what is China's reaction/counter-measures in the US' low-yield nuclear weapon?
Love to hear your insights on these.
 

no_name

Major
As an answer written on Quora when people ask why China only has 260 warheads:

Nobody knows how many nukes China has because China never announced their number.

All numbers in western media are from a single source—FAS estimates. FAS estimated that China had 250 nukes by the end of 1970, 875 nukes by 1980, and 2000 nukes by mid-1990’s. In order to sleep better, the western propaganda prefers to quote 250 ad infinitum until the number becomes the official count.

There is another study conducted by Georgetown University putting China’s nukes at 3000. This report is totally ignored by the propaganda machine because it awakes people at nights.

But let’s concentrate on the number 250. China tested their first nuclear bomb in 1964. So they were able to make 250 bombs in a period of 6 years at a rate of 40/year. However during the following 48 years China only made 10 bombs in total at a rate of less than one every four years?

So what happened to China in 1970’s? Was USSR and USA suddenly became the best buddies of China so nukes became useless? Or, since FAS made their estimate based on electricity consumption, so perhaps Chins has been experiencing much severe electricity shortage than that prior to 1970?
 

Top