Cause and effect of Chinese GDP & ecnomic growth Worldwide.

Re: In 1840, CHina has the highest GDP in the world but.....

bladerunner said:

Here is the source you showed me when i question you.theres nothing about tonnage

From January to October, China's new orders amounted to 2.71 million CGT, and the market share reaches as high as 52.3%, while new orders in South Korea totals only 1.64 million CGT with 31.8% global market share. This means that China has exceeded South Korea in orders received and new orders and becomes the world's largest shipbuilding country. It is understood that South Korea's shipbuilding industry surpassed Japan in 2000. In the following 10 years, South Korea has been the world's largest ship builder

Note it says on orders received China will surpass Korea .........

the last sentence readsand infers that between 2000-2010 Korea was the largest ship builder,

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I don't know where you go to school or that you even passed elementary school math Anybody know that CGT stand for Compensated Gross tonnage.
To better reflect the true workload of Shipyard


Tell me which is higher 2.71 million CGT or 1.64 Million CGT:rofl:

Re: In 1840, CHina has the highest GDP in the world but.....

antimatter said:

People putting overwhelming alots of money into real estate means they only know limited way of making money.. Real estate and stock are the primary focus of Chinese people.

I am not saying CHina is not getting better. but getting more wealthy without high degree of industrialization is only an invitation to be robbed by others..

Let's not compare to China to Singapore, HK, or Taiwan because if the superpower is going to attack those wealthy places, they would be defenseless..

China has a different destiny and a harder path to go. Therefore, China needs to have higher degree of industrialzation than those places to survive.

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I don't know what are you blabbering about How you think they get their money in the first place inorder to invest inreal estate. 65% of Chinese GDP is produced by private company . That is how they get their money in first place opening their own company and through hard work and ingenuity accumulate capital. Back in the 80's Million goes to open their own bussiness.

No one can beat Chinese when it comes to enterpreneurship. Just go to South East Asia In most countries Chinese dominate the private ownership in SEA . Thailand out of 10 largest bank 8 are own by the Chinese. The same story in Malaysia,Phillipine or Indonesia

Now that they have extra money and the housing market is booming why not invest in Real Estate as long as they INVEST WITH THEIR OWN MONEY ! .

Here is the difference between China and the west In the west they speculate with borrow money using ARM mortgage which is ridiculously low but will double or triple in couple year When the economy tank they have trouble paying the principal!

BTW Ordos is booming town in Mongolia and has bright future because it is now become the energy capital in China , Dozens of power Plant is built right at the mouth of Modern Mine . Income grow exponentially.So those people invest there is not crazy. Given couple years those flats will be fully occupied

China is not in any danger of being invaded No one is crazy enough to invade China period

Re: In 1840, CHina has the highest GDP in the world but.....

antimatter said:

well essentially, my thread is reflecting his viewpoint.
He's a Chinese military analysis. he see great danger ahead for China as China accumulate more wealth it would become a big target by the imperialist element. He doens't feel China's industrialization is up to par as evidented by the country hollow GDP driven such as real estate, focusing on textile, toys, consumer products... Whatever China has industrywise at this point is not enough.

Maybe some other chinese readers can add more to this...

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He's an air force colonel working in a remote base.
He even admitted he hasn't been to many cities and that he hasn't read many books.
What he has said has been speculated by many doom sayers for a long time, that's nothing new.
From the moment he started talking about LiuQiu I knew he didn't know what he was talking about and was pulling stuff from his behind.

Re: In 1840, CHina has the highest GDP in the world but.....

antimatter said:

India and Vietnam also build ships. No big deal. China has to set the bar higher and do something those countries can't do.

Building the big plane with domestic engine would be one of that but who knows how long it will take for CHina to master.

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Yeah and India only built 3 frigate between 1980 and 2000 Wow superpower indeed India Shining!

ARJ 21 is close to certification. You got to walk before you run

Re: In 1840, CHina has the highest GDP in the world but.....

antimatter said:

India and Vietnam also build ships. No big deal. China has to set the bar higher and do something those countries can't do.

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Er... what do you think that China should do that India and Vietnam couldn't? How about shooting down ballistic missile (Oops... China done that already.), Hmm... sending astronauts into space (oops... China done that too). Lets see... you got to help me out here.

antimatter said:

Building the big plane with domestic engine would be one of that but who knows how long it will take for CHina to master.

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Oh... Why don't you tell me how many big planes did Korea and Japan build with their own domestic engines... And by big planes, what type of plane is consider as big planes - er... A380? Boeing 737? Dreamliners, what? Also by big plane, do you mean civilians or military?

Re: In 1840, CHina has the highest GDP in the world but.....

Hendrik_2000 said:

I don't know where you go to school or that you even passed elementary school math Anybody know that CGT stand for Compensated Gross tonnage.
To better reflect the true workload of Shipyard

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Tell me which is higher 2.71 million CGT or 1.64 Million CGT:rofl:

Click to expand...

WOW THANKS A LOT, FOR A MOMENT I THOUGHT C.G.T. MEANT, "CHINESE GOT TALENT"


SO WHAT: CGT has been around for a considerable amount of years and continuously revised.

NOTE in the source you cited to explain CGT it points out :

"However, the system has some limitations, as the macro-economic focus of the system has meant that certain simplifications have been necessary, and if applied for micro-economic evaluations the compensated tons system might give misleading results."

BUT THE PROBLEM IS NOT MY LACK OF UNDERSTANDING IN HIGH SCHOOL MATHS

BUT YOUR INABILITY TO UNDERSTAND ENGLISH FULLY

THE ARTICLE ONLY TALKS ABOUT SHIPS ORDERED, NOT SHIPS BUILT YOU CANT CLAIM TO BE THE BIGGEST SHIP BUILDER IF YOU HAVENT BUILT THE SHIPS YET. (What happens if the orders get cancelled)

THE SAME ARTICLE ALSO SAYS KOREA IS THE LEADING SHIPBUILDER in 2010.

THE LAST SENTENCE OF THE SAME PARAGRAPH READS:

"South Korea's shipbuilding industry surpassed Japan in 2000. In the following 10 years, South Korea has been the world's largest ship builder".



Ill put it simpler for you: KOREA WAS THE WORLDS LEADING SHIPBUILDING NATION BETWEEN 2000 and 2010.

IT was you who quoted Chosun Ilbo and note it cites"Clarkson" (which isnt Korean) as its source for information which states

"China's shipbuilding has overtaken South Korea's in terms of order volume already received and new orders. According to statistical results released by Clarkson, the research institute that analyze the global shipbuilding and maritime transport sector, as of early this month, China's shipbuilding orders reached 54.96 million Compensated Gross Ton (CGT), 34.7% of the world market share, while the South Korean shipbuilding industry holds orders of 53.63 million CGT and only 33.8% of the world's market share. China's market share is 0.9 percentage points higher than South Korea's." Meanwhile "Marport" whom you appear to favour, is nothing more than an opinion piece, devoid of any evidence to substantiate the writers views.

If thats not enough to point out your error, then how about the actual headline of the article you are quoting from? "China set to become world's largest shipbuilding country16:52, November 10, 2009"

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Re: In 1840, CHina has the highest GDP in the world but.....

antimatter said:

well essentially, my thread is reflecting his viewpoint.
He's a Chinese military analysis. he see great danger ahead for China as China accumulate more wealth it would become a big target by the imperialist element. He doens't feel China's industrialization is up to par as evidented by the country hollow GDP driven such as real estate, focusing on textile, toys, consumer products... Whatever China has industrywise at this point is not enough.

Maybe some other chinese readers can add more to this...

Click to expand...

I really don't understand what this hollow GDP and accumulated wealth you are going on and on about and the perceived imperialist plot.

1) The yuan is a controlled currency, and banking in China is a controlled industry, property bubbles are contained within the country, if the bubble bursts there will be some people who'll lose the shirts on their backs but it won't be a bunch of yankees that will benefit.

2) In the last 25 years China has undergone one of the fastest industrial growth rates the planet has ever seen there are limits to how much faster things can go even in a centrally planned economy. So if you are Chinese you should understand that Chinese measure things in longer timeframes generations not the as Americans do in seconds.

3) The purpose of government is (should be) to provide for the welfare of its citizens, those factories churning out textiles and toys provide jobs and income for large numbers of people who are not all going to find employment as nuclear and aerospace engineers. You disparage tea and porcelain but in the 18th and early 19th centuries its those items that nearly bankrupted Britain and led to the opium wars, they grow tea in India because of the British demand for the stuff! So if the Qing had the backbone to actually beat back the Europeans in the Opium wars instead of capitulating the world would look a different place. I say backbone because as the PVA showed in the Korean war and the Viet-Cong in the Vietnam war its not necessarily always about who has the better weapons but who has the will to fight and win.

4) On to military matters the growth of the Chinese navy and airforce in scope and capability like the army before it results from not wanting a repeat of the unequal treaties of the 19th Century. As China has returned to prosperity and the perceived threat is once again from the seas rather than the sino-russian border the airforce and the navy takes centre stage and has grown beyond what's sufficient to take back Taiwan to hopefully something that will deter the US meddling in China's own backyard in the non too distant future. That's the crux of it not whether there's too many toy and textile factories in China!

Re: In 1840, CHina has the highest GDP in the world but.....

Bladerunner you can quibbles about semantic. But the trend is clear Korea is limited by land and higher labor cost. Whether 2009 or 2010 China will take a lead in shipbuilding there is no doubt about it

The technology gap had been closed. From LNG carrier to ultra large Tanker China can built it

2010 is not yet over and you claim that Korea is the largest shipbuilder 10 years in row. I can applied the same argument what happened if they cancelled the order ?

BTW your argument about cancelling order is red herring to me. You can't cancelled order at will without paying huge sum of penalty. Unless there is really dire circumstances that justify cancelling order like collapse of trade or depression, order eventually lead to construction,

Anyway if shipowner cancelled order in China they will also cancelled order in Korea due to similiar circumstances

Just like GDP, China will eventually ecclipse Japan. I say China already did because most statistic underestimate the large but hard to calculate service industry in China.

Re: In 1840, CHina has the highest GDP in the world but.....

What worries me the most is how can normal chinese individuals (the low to middle class) afford those newly build houses? My family work in the real estate industry in south west China. He told me how normal middle income Chinese can NEVER, he said NEVER afford the houses they and other real estate company are now building. Cheap apartments can range up to quarter of a million RMBs easily now.

Most buyer have to pay a huge down payments up front unlike here the average 10% here in the US. normal college graduate's average income are about 1500-4000 RMBs (if they are lucky enough to find a job). most Chinese couples are not even getting married cause they can't afford a decent apartment. Most of those people have to borrow money from their parents just to continue renting a place to live.

The poors are in the worst positions. local governments in South West Chinese provinces are required by the national goverment to provide numbers of housing that are affortable to the poor, but most of those housing are poorly build and poorly priced by the local government. Cheapest project housing in the ourskirt of city are about 80,000 RMBs. you also have to pay 60% up front. How in the world can the poors afford that? that is about 500%yearly income for some people.

More disturbing is the stories my family told me how local government confiscated land from farmers for the new "Socialist country side reform". pay them a peny amount for their land. Then work with local real estate company to build some new houses to make the place look nice. Get this... Then sale the land back to those farmers for 3 to 6 times of the price they were paid for. Most people sadly have to buy their own land back. Farmers that can't afford it became homless. There also were stories of family kill themselves or kill officials, or real estate companies hire thugs to beat up or kill those farmers that wouldn't move out of their own land.

All those are first hand account of the real estate situations in China now.

Re: In 1840, CHina has the highest GDP in the world but.....

Most people in China view real estate as money making object, not as a place to live. It's creating a huge bubble.

Local government to satisfied GDP requirement, keep on building empty office buildings.

Build what's needed, not base on future projections.