Bhutan: Dangerous liaison

Why is India unnecessary risking a war?



Commentary: India to face the consequences of its strategic miscalculation


BEIJING, Aug. 25 (Xinhua) -- It has now entered the third month since Indian military trespassed into Chinese territory, to which China has shown the utmost tolerance. India must take any possible consequences if it continues to miscalculate the situation.

On June 18, over 270 armed Indian troops with two bulldozers crossed the eastern boundary into Doklam, China's sovereign territory, to obstruct Chinese infrastructure construction.

It is a double standard, as India has approved the building of a military road to facilitate troop deployment near the western part of China-India border to "ensure the strength of the Indian border troops."

On Aug. 22, Chinese troops, patrolling on the Chinese side of Pangong Lake, suffered injuries from the reckless actions of Indian troops, which once again reflected India`s insincerity and self-contradictions in resolving the Sino-India border issue peacefully.

A senior Indian official has said that the country has not attacked any other country and has no ambition to expand its boundaries.

However, the Indian military has trespassed over the mutually recognized boundary that has been abided by both sides for nearly 130 years and its troops remain on Chinese territory.

China has proved its sovereignty of Doklam to the international community with convincing evidence, including the historical convention from 1890.

Meanwhile, China has not closed the door to diplomatic dialogue with India to ease tensions.

Since the 1960s, through negotiation and consultation, China has delimited 20,000 kilometers of land boundary and is in complete accord with 12 out of its 14 land neighbors.

"India thinks that the international situation is good enough for it to test China's bottom line," Li Qingyan, an expert on South Asia issues at China Institute of International Studies, told Xinhua.

But India may have miscalculated China's stance in defending its sovereignty. China's bottom line is the border line, as shown in the Sino-Indian border conflict in 1962.

China values peace and the interests of innocent people on both side of the border, that is why it has remained patient in the face of such encroachment.

China has never made the first move in wars fought since 1949 but it would not flinch if a war were to be inflicted upon its people.

The prerequisite for settlement of the border standoff is the unconditional withdrawal of all trespassing personnel and equipment to the Indian side.

China has sent this message openly to India through many channels over the past 60 days.

Now, it is time for India to abide by the law, respect historical facts, to match words with deeds and make the wise decision based on reasonable strategic calculation.

China and India are two developing giants with a wide range of common interests. A sensible bilateral relationship will benefit more than two billion people, nearly one-third of the global population.

The ball has been placed in India's court.

Quickie said:

Why is India unnecessary risking a war?

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Commentary: India to face the consequences of its strategic miscalculation


BEIJING, Aug. 25 (Xinhua) -- It has now entered the third month since Indian military trespassed into Chinese territory, to which China has shown the utmost tolerance. India must take any possible consequences if it continues to miscalculate the situation.

On June 18, over 270 armed Indian troops with two bulldozers crossed the eastern boundary into Doklam, China's sovereign territory, to obstruct Chinese infrastructure construction.

It is a double standard, as India has approved the building of a military road to facilitate troop deployment near the western part of China-India border to "ensure the strength of the Indian border troops."

On Aug. 22, Chinese troops, patrolling on the Chinese side of Pangong Lake, suffered injuries from the reckless actions of Indian troops, which once again reflected India`s insincerity and self-contradictions in resolving the Sino-India border issue peacefully.

A senior Indian official has said that the country has not attacked any other country and has no ambition to expand its boundaries.

However, the Indian military has trespassed over the mutually recognized boundary that has been abided by both sides for nearly 130 years and its troops remain on Chinese territory.

China has proved its sovereignty of Doklam to the international community with convincing evidence, including the historical convention from 1890.

Meanwhile, China has not closed the door to diplomatic dialogue with India to ease tensions.

Since the 1960s, through negotiation and consultation, China has delimited 20,000 kilometers of land boundary and is in complete accord with 12 out of its 14 land neighbors.

"India thinks that the international situation is good enough for it to test China's bottom line," Li Qingyan, an expert on South Asia issues at China Institute of International Studies, told Xinhua.

But India may have miscalculated China's stance in defending its sovereignty. China's bottom line is the border line, as shown in the Sino-Indian border conflict in 1962.

China values peace and the interests of innocent people on both side of the border, that is why it has remained patient in the face of such encroachment.

China has never made the first move in wars fought since 1949 but it would not flinch if a war were to be inflicted upon its people.

The prerequisite for settlement of the border standoff is the unconditional withdrawal of all trespassing personnel and equipment to the Indian side.

China has sent this message openly to India through many channels over the past 60 days.

Now, it is time for India to abide by the law, respect historical facts, to match words with deeds and make the wise decision based on reasonable strategic calculation.

China and India are two developing giants with a wide range of common interests. A sensible bilateral relationship will benefit more than two billion people, nearly one-third of the global population.

The ball has been placed in India's court.

Click to expand...

Well....hasn't this same old rhetoric been repeated to death? Repeating the same old lines doesn't change the fact on the ground. Either the PLA has to secure its boundaries or China's image as a strong nation will take a hit (it already has).

Yodello said:

Well....hasn't this same old rhetoric been repeated to death? Repeating the same old lines doesn't change the fact on the ground. Either the PLA has to secure its boundaries or China's image as a strong nation will take a hit (it already has).

Click to expand...

No.

Doklam hasn't registered on the international radar, because it doesn't really matter and China is patient enough to see its long-term plans through. Remember it is in Bhutan's long-term interest to escape India's tight embrace and become neutral. Then Bhutan can extract the maximum benefit from both China and India.

Just look at the $10billion aid package reportedly being offered by China. That will help Bhutan decide to establish diplomatic relations with China as an independent nation (over Indian objections), and settle the China-Bhutan border. Otherwise China will just keep nibbling at Bhutan's Northern territory, to make the point that India is not willing or able to stop this.

That is classic carrot and stick.

In comparison, everyone knows about the South China Seas, because it is being cast as a competition between the USA versus China. This is far more important because it is the USA and China, and because the SCS is the main artery for the world's seaborne trade.

Remember that for years and years, there were articles saying that China had made a strategic mistake. But China completely ignored US (and other) protests and has gotten what it wants.

Plus China is now viewed as more important than the USA by the nations in the SCS, as per the latest surveys.

That is what is driving China's image.

US steps up SE Asia effort but survey points to China sway
Financial Times

The US has stepped up efforts to boost ties with Southeast Asian countries even though a new survey lays bare a growing sense that China has already won the strategic struggle there.
...
Almost three-quarters of the respondents from government, business, academia, the media and civil society in the survey by Singapore’s Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute think-tank saw China as the most influential country or organisation in Southeast Asia now and during the next 10 years.

Read more

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Pinning hope on Bhutan to resolve the border dispute, is unrealistic
Bhutan is now under Indian military occupation and lock down
Read this

China-India border tensions drive fear into Bhutanese town
By Fan Lingzhi in Bhutan Source:Global Times Published: 2017/8/27 21:29:39


An Indian soldier stationed in Haa district reads from a notebook. Photo: Cui Meng/GT

At dusk on an August night, the temperature in the Haa Valley in western Bhutan dropped to as low as 10 C, but none of the visitors at the Risum Resort seemed to notice as they enjoyed local beer and traditional cheese peppers.

Belying the calm in the valley, some 30 kilometers west of the resort, a standoff between China and India has been dragging on for two months after Indian troops trespassed into Chinese territory "on Bhutan's behalf."

India's military presence has been lurking in Bhutan's westernmost town of Haa for over half a century. The current Doklam tensions have started to affect local people's lives as worries spread.

The Haa Valley is roughly divided into two areas, the upstream Haa township and the military zone in the downstream.

A local villager told the Global Times that it would take two days to walk to China's Tibet Autonomous Region from the Haa Valley but as tensions grow, the Bhutanese military began to barricade the road.

The villager said he had witnessed Indian military trucks sending troops westward.

India's military presence in Haa, which constitutes of an Indian Military Training Team (IMTRAT) and the Wangchuk Lo Dzong Military School, is difficult to ignore.

Chablop PaSsu, a Bhutanese scholar, wrote in a 2014 blog post that "It was during the time of Prime Minister Jigme Palden Dorji that the dzong was provided for temporary occupancy to the IMTRAT as an interim measure to answer accommodation problem in Haa."

A dzong is a fortress-like building common in Bhutan, and the one in Haa was given to the IMTRAT in 1962, according to the Indian Army's website.

At the gate of the Wangchuk Lo Dzong Military School, a worn metal plate reads that the military school is to strengthen the friendship of two great countries.

At 7 am, six fully armed Bhutanese pupils walked into the school from the nearby camp, followed by an Indian officer wearing an instructors uniform. Soon, shouts of slogans started to come out of the school.

A teenage student told the Global Times that there are about 500 Indian soldiers and service people in Haa. When asked about his impression of them, he said he's worried.

"I can't imagine what it would be like if a war really starts," he said.

Cut-off commerce

Compared with the military zone, the township of Haa is much smaller. The town has only four roads about 500 meters long, with a population of just several thousands, according to locals.

Apart from growing crops, a lot of locals are engaged in business activities. Before 1957, Haa Dzongkhag used to be a trade hub between Bhutan and Tibet. But now, that road of commerce has largely been cut off.

A local shop owner called Namgyal told the Global Times that many of his products, which bear Chinese logos, arrived via Nepal. He said three years ago, he used to smuggle Bhutanese fungus to China by mules.

"I usually traveled at night to sneak cross the border," said Namgyal.

But this year, due to the standoff between China and India, the road to Tibet has been blocked, and so is one of Namgyal's sources of income. "So far, my life hasn't been severely affected, but I'm worried about the possibility of war. We're a small country, and a war would ruin everything I have."

Many Bhutanese shared Namgyal's feeling. They showed reluctance to answer questions or take sides when asked about the standoff.

A tourist guide said half drunkenly that his government does not want people to talk about this subject.

One Bhutanese man who used to study in China was an exception. He said his visit to many Chinese cities has led him to believe that New Delhi is no rival of Beijing.

"India is lying about 'protecting Bhutan' … If a war breaks out, China will win," he said.


Newspaper headline: China-India border tensions affect life in Bhutan town

Yodello said:

Well....hasn't this same old rhetoric been repeated to death? Repeating the same old lines doesn't change the fact on the ground. Either the PLA has to secure its boundaries or China's image as a strong nation will take a hit (it already has).

Click to expand...

Don't mistake patience and non military action as weakness. India too can be hit with a weakness image problem if they back down from entering Chinese territory. Their bravado has yet to pay off and now they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

I think that one of the final cards China will play before war becomes inevitable is an ultimatum of sorts to Bhutan - publically and officially state that India was and is not acting on behalf of Bhutan and demand that India withdraws its troops, or there will be war.

That will be a last ditch effort, as you cannot make a statement like that and not follow through if you want to be taken seriously in the future. So the decision to go to war would pretty much already have been made at that point, and there would be little for China to loose with that play.

In which case, the warning would serve 3 purposes:
1) If Bhutan issues that statement, it would cut India's stance off at the knees with regards to their involvement in the dispute. That will utterly destroy their position diplomatically, while also given the Indian government a ladder of sorts to climb down with, by saying Bhutan doesn't want them involved.
2) If India still refuses to back down after Bhutan has made such a statement, it pretty much gives China an ironclad case for war to expel India. If India retaliates, China would broaden and deepen the conflict to teach a similar lesson as 62.
3) If Bhutan doesn't issue the statement but instead warns the Indians behind the scenes, the Indian government may cave, or launch a pre-emptive attack, thereby handing China the diplomatic advantage as China can quite reasonably class the entire war as a war of self defence and counter attack.

I know I'm cross-posting:





China, India agree to end Donglang border stand-off that began in June, Indian foreign ministry says

So Bhutan won its waiting game without saying anything. Wonder what this means for the road construction..

Tyloe said:

So Bhutan won its waiting game without saying anything. Wonder what this means for the road construction..

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Only the Indian troop is withdrawn . China continue to patrol the area and continue with road construction. It is a massive climb down by the Indian of course they spin it as if they won
But regardless I am glad India come to their senses and prevent war and further grieve


India said Monday it had agreed with China to end a months-long military stand-off at a strategically important disputed area in the Himalayas and troops had begun disengaging.

India's foreign ministry said it had reached an "understanding" after talks with Beijing about the tense confrontation in an area near the Indian border that is claimed by both China and Bhutan.


Its statement suggested that both sides had agreed to pull back, although the Chinese foreign ministry said only that Indian troops were withdrawing.

"India and China have maintained diplomatic communication in respect of the incident at Doklam," New Delhi said, referring to the stand-off which began on June 16.

"During these communications, we were able to express our views and convey our concerns and interests.

"Expeditious disengagement of border personnel at the face-off site at Doklam has been agreed to and is ongoing."

India does not claim Doklam for itself but is closely allied with Bhutan, which it regards as a buffer against rival China to the north.

India and China have a long history of mistrust and went to war in 1962 over the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.

But analysts had said the latest crisis between the nuclear-armed neighbours was the worst in decades.

China said it was "pleased" that India had agreed to withdraw troops from the flashpoint area.

"I am pleased to confirm that trespassing Indian personnel have all pulled back to the Indian side of the boundary," foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said.

"Chinese troops continue to patrol on the Chinese side of the boundary," she said.

China had repeatedly said India must withdraw its troops before any proper negotiation takes place. India said both sides should withdraw their forces together.

The border trouble began in June when Chinese soldiers started to extend a road through the Doklam territory -- known as "Donglang" in Chinese.

India deployed troops to stop the construction project, prompting Beijing to accuse it of trespassing on Chinese soil.

The plateau is strategically significant as it gives China access to the so-called "chicken's neck" -- a thin strip of land connecting India's northeastern states with the rest of the country.

Hendrik_2000 said:

China continue to patrol the area and continue with road construction.

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Actually, the chinese foreign ministry didnt refer that china would continue the road construction.

The troops will disengage from the area. This means that the construction workers/equipment will pull out (otherwise it wouldnt makes sense for india to pull out its forces). This crisis started when china atempted to build this road, now the road construction is terminated. For me, this means a defeat for china.