I don't know how much PLAN's budget accurately, maybe 80~100 bn USD or more every year.The military spending figures for the US and Russia are fairly solid at 3.5%-4% over the past 20 years
IIRC, even the high Pentagon estimates for Chinese military spending top out at 2.5%, which is substantially below this level
So I'm happy to go with SIPRI's estimate of 1.7% for Chinese military spending
The conclusion is that China isn't in a serious military arms race
But if China did double military spending to 3.4%, we'd be seeing military procurement running at twice current levels
Eg. In the next 5 year plan (2021-2025), naval shipbuilding could look like this
40 Type-054 Frigates
40 Type-052 Destroyers
16 Type-055 Cruisers
2 Supercarriers (85k tonnes with EMALs)
I'd also see them building up to 6 SSNs per year. That would would mean 30 SSNs just in this period
In the 13th five year plan.
1 type-003 7.3 bn
8 type-055 7.3 bn
16 type-052d 8.6 bn
10 or more type-054A 2.1 bn
I think the total cost of ship building is no more than 10bn every year.
So the cost of ship building is not the major expenditure of military budget. So I think if the rate goes to 3.4%, at least the tonnage will be more than 4 times than today. We can see 4 carriers under constuction at the same time.