American Economics Thread


LesAdieux

Junior Member
non-transitory cold turkey

The world has been on QE for more than a decade with ever heavier doses! finally chickens come home to roost!

fed likely will try to put up a brave face, try to hold its nerve, hope for the "transitory effect" to materialize, by the time when they go to Jackson Hole in August, cold turkey may be the only course on the table.
 

LesAdieux

Junior Member
and the Dow future gains 100 points after the news, you can't tell the difference between the Dow and the Bitcoin.
 
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horse

Senior Member
Registered Member
and the Dow future gains 100 points after the news, you can't tell the difference between the Dow and the Bitcoin.

The bonds (myself being lazy just following TLT) has been going sideways like it is building a base on the chart.

Lately it has been going up a little bit.

Clearly, the bond market thinks this inflation is temporary.

But why?

The most direct answer or guess to that, is that maybe the economy in the US is just not that strong.

If there is endemic growth, no need to be concerned about inflation. In that case, deflationary pressures may rear its head again.
 

LesAdieux

Junior Member
The bonds (myself being lazy just following TLT) has been going sideways like it is building a base on the chart.

Lately it has been going up a little bit.

Clearly, the bond market thinks this inflation is temporary.

But why?

The most direct answer or guess to that, is that maybe the economy in the US is just not that strong.

If there is endemic growth, no need to be concerned about inflation. In that case, deflationary pressures may rear its head again.

no response from the fed yet. it's the ECB that keeps the market calm. the ECB reaffirmed its belief in transitory, assured the market its commitment to the QE with no tapering on the horizon.

the headline inflation up 0.8% over April already running at more than 10%, there's no base effect. let's see how long this will last.
 
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voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
no response from the fed yet. it's the ECB that keeps the market calm. the ECB reaffirmed its belief in transitory, assured the market its commitment to the QE with no tapering on the horizon.
Germany is starting to get overheated but the South EU countries which are drowning in debt desperately need low rates and thus the ECB is "forced" to keep the rates low.

We will see how long that lasts though because if inflation keeps increasing in Germany then the people there will start seriously protesting, and dont forget that they have elections in a few months.

Due to their history, inflation is an anathema to the Germans. Anyone who is seen supporting srious inflation inclreases will get lynched in Germany
 

Petrolicious88

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Let us remember back in 2009-2010 when China bailed out the US after the GFC and the US responded with the Pivot to Asia and trying to contain China.

Never again.
Trade Reps from both US - China are formally talking again with the US calling for balanced trade relations.

Basically demanding more concessions from China.
 

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